Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Sudan now faces a serious crisis on two fronts, after the main southern party announced its withdrawal from central politics and as violence appears to be spiralling out of control in Darfur.

Implications

Observers have increasingly warned that that the peace agreement between the north and the south was in danger of breaking down, prompting fears of a renewed conflict that would also dash hopes of rapid and peaceful end to the separate conflict currently raging in Darfur.

Outlook

The southern faction has suggested, however, that it will remain open to talks with the government, but has nonetheless specified a number of conditions to be met. As of yet, the government’s reaction remains unclear, but prospects for the upcoming Darfur peace meeting in Libya are also looking increasingly uncertain.

A Government in Crisis

Sudan’s former rebels yesterday suspended participation in the central government, based in the capital, Khartoum, accusing of it of failing to implement the requirements specified in the 2005 peace agreement. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) has announced the withdrawal of 18 of its cabinet ministers, including the foreign minister and vice-president, a decision that was made during a meeting headed by the southern Sudanese president, Silva Kiir. Relations between the north and the south have recently become increasingly tense, with observers and the U.S. government warning that the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005, which put an end to two decades of bloody civil war, was on the verge of unravelling. Since the announced withdrawal from the government, the SPLM has suggested that it is open to dialogue that would aim to resolve the differences between the two parties, claiming that the initial decision was a way of “raising alarm” over the continued attempts to stall the implementation of the peace agreement. The SPLM has stated that one its key concerns is the north’s continued reluctance to withdraw its remaining troops from the south and the fate of the oil-rich central region of Abeiye. Tensions between the two sides rose recently following a security raid at the SPLM’s political offices in Khartoum.

A Delay in Darfur Peace Talks?

The Sudanese government is also facing another significant challenge, namely the escalation of violence in Darfur. There have been increasing numbers of reports suggesting that Sudanese forces and allied militias have intensified attacks on the rebels, attacks that have included the only faction to have signed a peace deal. The recent spike in bloodshed, combined with the uncertainties in Khartoum as a result of the SPLM withdrawal, is likely to be seen as a potential blow to peace talks due to begin later this month in Libya between the fragmented rebel factions and the Sudanese government. The only remaining rebel group to have signed a peace deal with the Sudanese government has threatened to return to full hostilities after 48 people were killed in the southern Darfur town of Mohajiria. The attack was allegedly carried out by the government-backed Janjawid militia and Sudanese military aircraft. The Sudan Liberation Movement (SLA), which is in control of the nearby area, called the attack a “flagrant violation” of the peace deal signed by the Sudanese government in 2006. The government has, however, denied it was involved in the attack, blaming it on internal fighting between various rebel factions.

The accusation by SLA leader Mani Arko Minawi, who, following the 2005 peace deal, was appointed special advisor to the Sudanese president—comes after rival rebel leader Suliman Jamous announced that as many as 100 civilians had been killed when government forces razed the town of Haskanita, which was allegedly destroyed in retaliation for a rebel attack on an African Union (AU) military outpost that killed 10 peacekeepers and prompted widespread international condemnation (see Sudan: 8 October 2007: Concern Mounts Over Darfur as Town Near Attacked AU Base is Razed). The SLM also accused the Sudanese army yesterday of threatening to shoot down an AU plane carrying its leaders as they were travelling to southern capital of Juba for talks with the southern SPLM. Aid workers are thought to have fled from several areas of the region as a result of the continued uncertainty.

Outlook and Implications

Despite the suggestion by Pagan Amum, the SPLM party secretary-general, that the decision to withdraw the southern faction from the central government was not intended to renew conflict but to push for better implementation of the 2005 CPA, the situation remains serious and is the most significant blow yet to a fragile peace deal. The National Congress Party, allied to Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, blasted the SPLM’s decision and accused it of “selling out to foreign interests”. The Sudanese government was initially thought to have been taken by surprise by the SPLM’s announcement. Earlier, foreign ministry spokesman Ali Sadiq suggested that the ministry's two deputies would take charge; the two are thought to be northern Arabs and members of the ruling National Congress Party. Judging by the current situation, violence in Darfur is set to increase and divisions between the various groups are set to widen as a result. This does not bode well for the upcoming peace meeting, which is likely either to be postponed or even cancelled. It also remains unclear as to what the SPLM will do next, but what remains clear, however, is that it seems increasingly unlikely that the central government will yield to such demands and terms as proposed by the southern politicians.