Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The start of the official campaigning period coincides with the release of an interesting new poll that shows that 15% of the French public remain undecided as to who they will vote for in the first round, giving the leading candidates and their campaign teams an added incentive to try and attract valuable votes.

Implications

The next two weeks will see the main candidates fine-tune their electoral programmes and increase their attacks on their rivals. Domestic and international interest in the elections is huge, not least because of the presence of Socialist Party candidate Ségolène Royal, who could become the country’s first ever female president. Structural reform, the weak economy, social woes, and crime and security are all priority issues for the electorate.

Outlook

Pre-election polls consistently show the centre-right ruling party’s enigmatic Nicolas Sarkozy as the favourite for the presidency. Although Sarkozy is highly likely to make it through to the second round, he is a somewhat divisive character, which could well swing the vote against him at the final furlong. Despite her confidence, Royal’s presidential aspirations may well be dashed as early as the first round, as her programme appears vague and dated, although her strong persona is definitely an advantage. The “third man”—centrist François Bayrou—could cause the electoral upset of the year, although it is doubtful whether the French are ready for the “unity”, pan-political government that he is proposing.

Today marks the start of the official campaign period in the highly anticipated French presidential election race. Twelve candidates will compete in the two-round contest, the first round of which is scheduled for 22 April, followed by the second-round run-off between the two top candidates two weeks later. Posters of all the candidates will now be put up at the 85,000 voting booths, and television and radio broadcasts will operate under strict election rules on equal airtime. The candidates will also now embark on a hectic schedule of public rallies and meetings across the country with their campaign teams (see France: 20 March 2007: Election 2007: Twelve Candidates Confirmed in French Presidential Contest).

This year’s presidential contest is expected to be one of the most closely fought since the inception of the Fifth Republic in 1958, with the front-runner, the ruling centre-right Union for the People’s Movement (UMP) candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, leading all pre-election polls ahead of his closest rival, the Socialist Party’s (PS) Ségolène Royal, who is aspiring to become France’s first ever female president. However, two further candidates, the centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou, and the far-right veteran Jean-Marie Le Pen, cannot at this stage be ruled out of the race. The former has emerged as a credible “third man”, promising a break from the traditional left-right political cleavage, and with appealing and balanced ideas on a more liberal yet socially responsible France, and a revived French role in Europe. Although Bayrou’s chances of making it to the second round are slim, if he does reach a head-to-head contest with Sarkozy, he may well cause the year’s biggest political upset. Le Pen meanwhile showed that he held broad public appeal when he proceeded to the second round in the 2002 presidential polls, causing a political earthquake in the country. With little having changed in the five years since those elections, Le Pen is still capable of attracting many disgruntled voters with his stance on immigration, his Eurosceptic discourse, and his tough approach to crime and security.

Outlook and Implications

All the leading candidates have now drawn up their electoral programmes, and will pitch them to the public over the next two weeks. The large number of undecided voters, revealed in a poll yesterday, shows that there is still all to play for in a race that is still wide open. It is therefore not surprising that the top two candidates have chosen to concentrate on their weakest points over the next two weeks. Royal has announced that she will focus on foreign policy and institutional reform. A series of diplomatic gaffes on foreign trips has left her open to criticism that she is inexperienced in high office, a valid claim. Furthermore, she has openly flaunted the idea of a Sixth Republic for France, to signal a departure from post-de Gaulle-era politics, in place since 1958. As for Sarkozy, his key objective is to present a softer image to the public, criticised as he often his for his tough-talking rhetoric on immigration and crime and security. Sarkozy will have his work cut out in trying to win over the sceptical populations of outer-city banlieues, high-rise estates that were at the source of extremely violent riots in 2005. Despite this, Sarkozy at this stage has a much stronger position on the economy, and on France’s future role in Europe, with clear proposals on both, in contrast to Royal’s more vague ideas. Seen as a proponent of economic liberalism and a committed reformer, Sarkozy’s ideas on a ministry of national identity, and a tough new selective immigration policy, have also been shown to have wider appeal, although he has been left vulnerable to accusations of vying for votes traditionally reserved for the far right.

Royal’s campaign has suffered from in-fighting, and the uncomfortable balance between her own, more left-of-centre ideas and the traditional socialism of her party’s heavyweights. The left has generally struggled to recover from its failure in 2002, and is unlikely to fare well in the legislative elections that follow in June. Should Royal win the presidency, but her party remain in opposition in parliament, a situation of “cohabitation” would occur, and would likely lead to stalled reforms and a political impasse. From an international perspective, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany favour Sarkozy for president. Royal’s pledges of economic protectionism and increased state intervention have investors, as well as the European Commission, worried, although her ideas resonate well with disgruntled workers at companies such as Airbus. Despite Sarkozy’s more liberal stance, governments of both the left and right can easily be held to ransom by militant unions in France, and even the centre-right has been wary of enacting wide-reaching economic reforms during its five-year tenure.

At this stage, there is still much to play for, and the first round of the presidential election is far from a foregone conclusion. Four of the 12 candidates in the first round could conceivably progress to the run-off in the event that no one contender obtains more than 50% of the first-round votes. It is likely though that one of the candidates from the traditional mainstream parties of government will secure the presidency—for all the desire for change in France, much of the public remains wary of turning it into reality.

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