Assistance Arrives, But Slowly

Before the earthquake struck on 12 January Haiti's capital Port-au-Prince had inadequate infrastructure and was one of the poorest cities in the world. This has made providing emergency assistance all the more difficult. There is no lack of will on the part of the emergency community, but getting the supplies to the country and then safely distributed is proving frustratingly slow. In the meantime, the population of the capital is turning to increasingly desperate measures to survive. There have been growing reports of lootings and shootings around the capital.

Latest developments include:

Aid Efforts

• There are some 27 rescue teams now on the ground trying to locate survivors among the rubble. However, hopes for these individuals are now fading five days after the quake.
• Food supplies are reaching badly hit areas of the capital, but the volume remains inadequate.
• The United States has mobilised military reserves, especially medical staff, to assist (see below for more).
• Prominent international diplomatic figures have been arriving in increasing numbers to show support and take stock of the situation. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon arrived in Port-au-Prince yesterday. His organisation was badly hit by the quake, its premises destroyed, and many staff killed (around 100 are still missing).
• U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton has also been in the capital, and former U.S. presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush are leading fundraising efforts. Bill Clinton, who was already the UN's special representative to Haiti, arrives on the island later today. He has acknowledged past failings in U.S. and international policy towards Haiti and has pledged that the international community will "do things differently this time" and create a model for stabilising other parts of the world.
• An international reconstruction conference is being organised in Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Logistics

• Traffic at the airport has been increasing after the U.S. military took over air traffic control and security. There are reportedly around 100 available landing slots a day, compared to the usual 30 to 35 incoming flights seen before the earthquake. However, there have been complaints from other countries such as France and Brazil that U.S. flights have been prioritised at the expense of theirs. The U.S. military claims that it is prioritising on the basis of cargo—water is followed by equipment for distributing supplies, food, and finally medical personnel and medicine.
• U.S. Coast Guard personnel have been mobilised to help secure Haiti's ports. The country's only major cargo port, Port International de Port-au-Prince, is in chaos and will take some time to reopen properly. Docks are destroyed and cranes have been toppled. This is forcing shippers to look at other facilities in the country and in the neighbouring Dominican Republic. The U.S. military is assessing the coastline to see if there is potential for creating a makeshift cargo port. Some freight is due to be brought ashore in the meantime with the help of large military landing craft.

Security

• Looting and violence were remarkably limited in the immediate aftermath of the quake, but reports have multiplied in recent hours. Some reports suggest looters have effectively taken control of blocks of the city, but the tone of media accounts varies considerably. Scuffles have broken out when food, water, and other essentials are handed out. The fact that inmates of destroyed prisons are on the loose has added to concerns. "We have 2000 police in Port-au-Prince and 3000 bandits who have escaped from prison", said Haitian president René Préval said. "That gives an idea of how bad the situation is."
• Gangs, already powerful in Haiti's shantytowns before the quake, are gaining control on the ground and could pose a serious threat if military security control is not strengthened soon.
• The Haitian police are still thin on the ground, and they have suffered significant losses of their own in terms of personnel and facilities. Greater numbers are said to have returned to work in the past day, however, presumably after helping ensure their own families were safe.
• The United States now has some 1,000 troops on the ground in Haiti and another 4,000 stationed in vessels offshore. Another 7,500 are due to arrive today. Some 30 helicopters are currently in use, and a large number of aircraft are being used to fly in supplies.

Domestic Politics

• President Préval has largely remained holed up at a police station and has yet to make a national address. He made a brief appearance at the airport alongside Hillary Clinton over the weekend. Frustration has been voiced on the streets with the government's lack of visibility. The government's infrastructure has been crippled, with ministry buildings in rubble and hundreds of staff unaccounted for.
• The United States is putting its weight behind Préval and has suggested that the country's parliament should grant him emergency powers.
• The Haitian government itself was already weak before disaster struck and the upcoming legislative elections further complicate the picture. Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive was only sworn in in November 2009, and has made only short and sporadic statements since the quake.
• The controversial legislative elections are due on 28 February and there are growing concerns that former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide will seek to exploit the chaos. His party, Fanmi Lavalas, has been prevented from participating in the polls. If the ousted leader, currently in exile in South Africa, returns as he has suggested he will, his presence could deliver a new blow to the country's brittle political stability.

The U.S. Walks a Fine Line

It is arguably a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" for U.S. president Barack Obama as he weighs how to respond to the disaster. He has announced massive aid efforts for Haiti, but already concerns are being voiced domestically over whether this is affordable, and internationally over the underlying U.S. motivations. Had the United States held back, it would have faced accusations of callousness and excessive diplomatic and military focus on the fight against terrorism. The country was accused under George W. Bush of neglecting Latin America at the expense of other priorities. There is concern that once the world's media has moved on from Port-au-Prince U.S. efforts will quickly die away. Critics also argue that the initial commitment of US$100 million in aid, and 10,000 troops, is very modest next to the huge military operations in South Asia and the Middle East. Previous U.S. commitment to Haiti has been patchy, with close attention paid only in the wake of political crises or hurricanes.

From the excessive commitment perspective, there will be suspicion that the United States is largely acting out of self-interest. There are thousands of American citizens and a variety of business interests in Haiti, and there is also an influential Haitian population back home pushing for strong involvement. An even more chaotic Haiti—which is only 700 miles from Miami and the U.S. state of Florida—could moreover swell refugee numbers. The United States has a long history of close involvement in the country and it is undoubtedly keen to maintain influence there. The United States sent some 20,000 troops to Haiti in 1994 to restore Aristide to power, and was involved in his ousting in 2004, although the verdict on that intervention with hindsight is mixed at best. In other countries, such as Brazil, there is some concern that the United States is trying to limit their regional influence.

To his credit, Obama has acknowledged the diplomatic sensitivity of the situation and has emphasised the humanitarian efforts and played down any talk of political control. He points out that only the United States has the logistical resources to respond adequately to the crisis. In the longer term he has echoed Bill Clinton's assurances that the United States is determined to learn from past mistakes.

Outlook and Implications

It remains difficult to obtain a proper picture of the situation on the ground in Haiti. News reports vary widely in tone—some focusing on lawlessness and mass looting, while others report that the situation is remarkably calm given the desperate circumstances. The situation is undeniably desperate, however, and it is vital that aid reaches the population much more effectively in the coming days. Only by achieving this, and providing adequate security, can the situation start to stabilise and longer-term recovery strategies be put in place. What is particularly frustrating about the situation is that prior to the earthquake there were rising hopes for an economic revival in Haiti. Tourism and garment manufacturing were seen as the most promising sectors, and while these have not necessarily been destroyed by the earthquake, investor confidence and the required operational infrastructure have been set back badly. There are reports that some of the garment manufacturers who had only recently set up business in Haiti have already relocated production elsewhere. Confidence will only recover if adequate security and stability is re-established. As the United States has stressed, it is vital that the Haitian government gets back on its feet rapidly and contains the instability that was already feared in the run-up to the February elections.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)