Significance: The government's meeting with the opposition has particular significance for the Muslim Brotherhood, given that it is the first time the group has officially met with the Egyptian state in fifty years. In the past, the group has been allowed to put forward candidates for election but only as independents, given the official ban on their activity.    

Implications: The Muslim Brotherhood, whose stated aim is to create an Islamic state through democratic means, is likely to emerge empowered by the events which have occurred over the last two weeks and could in the future prove a threat to the hitherto pro-Western stance of the government.  

Outlook: Egypt's medium-term future continues to look uncertain, with key issues expected to be hammered out during negotiations over the next few months. The transition will by no means be an easy one and the risk of new political conflicts and attempts by groups like the Muslim Brotherhood to reassert themselves remains high.   

Secular-Liberal Opposition Fractures

Egypt's newly-appointed vice-president Omar Suliman has been tasked with opening a new dialogue with the country's divided opposition, but the outcome at least initially seems far from reassuring. The pressure is on for the country to negotiate a peaceful transition but the difficulties are significant. The secular liberal al-Wafd party, along with al-Ghad which is headed by Ayman Nour, who was imprisoned for forgery after becoming the first person to stand against Mubarak in the presidential contest of 2005, have yet to make headway. The opposition has proven unable to speak in the name of the protesters, many of whom have shown a distinct distain for the political parties currently in existence. Huge hopes had been pinned on former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohammed el-Baradei who after returning to Egypt in January last year launched the movement for democratic change, however he seems unable to galvanise the debate. As of yet, he also seems unwilling and possibly incapable of assuming leadership position and bridging the opposition's divide.   

At least 300 people have died according to the latest United Nations (UN) estimates in the biggest protests the country has seen for decades. Although calm has been restored in most areas, protests are continuing in Cairo's main Tahrir square, where several thousand protesters are refusing to leave until the president steps down. The government has offered a range of concessions but have stopped short of allowing the vice-president to assume power. On Saturday (5 February) the country's state television confirmed that the top leadership of the ruling National Democratic party had resigned. This includes the president's son and previous heir apparent Gamal Mubarak. Egypt's mainstream has begun abandoning support for a quick Tunisian-style ouster and have instead focused on the demands that should be made in the transition period ahead of elections in August or September this year, after which the president is expected to step down.  

Enter the Muslim Brotherhood

The Muslim Brotherhood was for the first time in 50 years offered the opportunity to attend talks with the state, a moment which is of immense symbolic importance for the group which has been subject to routine intimidation by the state and is likely to empower the group going forward. Mohmmed Mursi, a representative of the group who took part in the talks, stressed during the meeting that the government reform efforts to date were still not enough. The brotherhood is one of the oldest political movements in Egypt and continues to call for the creation of an Islamic state through the support of the people. Its strength lies in its vast network of charities and grassroots organisations.

Iran's Praise

Against the backdrop of the new talks with the opposition, Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei praised Egypt's revolt during payer services in Tehran. In his sermon, he accused the Egyptian president of making his country do the U.S.'s bidding and said he "turned Egypt into the biggest enemy of Palestine and turned it into the greatest refuge for Zionists". Iranian officials have issued statements to state media proclaiming the protests as an Islamic awakening not unlike Iran's own. Egyptian officials have reacted furiously to the statement, which comes as a number of reports emerge in the state media claiming that "foreign forces" are playing a role in Egypt's unrest, with some suggesting that there are an estimated 3,000 foreign nationals among the hardcore group of protesters in Cairo's Tahrir square, many of them supporters of Hezbollah and Iran.

In the same vein it was claimed that turmoil in Egypt would provide an opportunity for Iran to extend its reach in the Arab world and further antagonise the United States and Israel. Meanwhile, figureheads of Iran's opposition Green Movement have said that they plan to hold a pro-Egypt rally in the Iranian capital and that it was seeking a permit to do so, thus posing a dilemma for the government which put down their protests so forcefully in 2009. Although Iran has clearly embraced the protests in Egypt, they could ultimately prove to be a double-edged sword for the clerical regime.

Diplomatic Community Under Fire

Egypt's foreign ministry issued a statement yesterday accusing foreign diplomats of attempt to smuggle weapons and communications equipment into the country amid concerns over unrest in the country. It said, according to Agence France-Presse, that foreign embassies in Cairo have tried to smuggle such things in diplomatic bags while relying on the principle of diplomatic immunity. Since the start of the unrest foreign embassies have launched major operations to try and evacuate foreign nationals. Many foreign companies with presences in Egypt have relied on private security companies to ensure their staff and their families were safely evacuated. The foreign ministry statement which failed to specify which embassies were currently under suspicion also suggested that concerned authorities "reserve the right to confiscate any weapons or technological equipment that would require a permit in Egypt".

The move also comes amid heightened tensions caused by reports that a diplomatic vehicle ploughed through a crowd of protesters in the capital's centre at high speed, leaving 20 people injured. The nationality of the passengers in the vehicle was not revealed, however it was believed that it was moving at speed to try and avoid being caught up in the protests which at that point were intensifying. The video of the incident has drawn angry reactions on social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter. The government is likely to want to avoid any diplomatic scuffles at this sensitive time. 

Outlook and Implications

Egypt's president appears determined to ride out the storm but has been willing to offer a number of concessions. Protesters calling for the immediate removal of Mubarak will nonetheless continue to occupy sections of the main square and any effort to remove the thousands who remain is likely to result in a major clash. The possibilities of new clashes will remain high. The Muslim Brotherhood is set to capitalise on the situation as much as possible; it may opt for a more direct role in rallying and agitating the crowds in a bid to increase its clout during negotiations. In the eyes of the authorities the stakes of leaving the group out may also become higher, ensuring that it is likely to play a far more dominant role in a new post-Mubarak era.