Humanitarian workers are still counting the number of fatalities in villages to the south of the Plateau State capital of Jos after armed men waged a brutal attack on villagers in the early hours of 7 March 2010 . Media reports and aid agencies seem to corroborate that the attack was instigated by Muslim Fulani herdsmen against the largely Christian community in what appears to be a reprisal attack for an earlier outbreak of sectarian violence in January 2010 . Eye-witness accounts suggest that the Fulani pastoralists stormed into the villages, fired gunshots into the air, and when villagers came out of their homes to see what was going on, they were slaughtered with machetes. Thus far, the death toll varies widely, with government figures stating that over 500 have been killed while humanitarian agencies have reported figures of around 200. Part of the problem in verifying the number of fatalities is the fact that some of the dead were buried quickly. Homes and businesses were burned in the process and security forces have been put on high alert, with troops deployed to Jos and the surrounding areas. The government is undoubtedly under pressure to act fast and get to the heart of the frustrations in this region, particularly as this latest outbreak occurred so soon after the January atrocities.

Gross Security Lapses

The military curfew that Jos has been under since January 2010, after at least 200 people were killed in inter-religious fighting, failed to prevent this latest attack. Three villages—Dogo Nahawa, Ramsat and Kamang in the Shen district of the Jos South Local Government Area—were not provided with security prior to the attack, even though in February there had been reports in the local media of a possible repeat of the January massacre after farms were destroyed and someone was killed, reportedly at the hands of Fulani tribesmen, according to the Daily Champion. Thus, the lax security visibly provided the assailants with a window of opportunity. Most of the recent victims appear to have been the vulnerable. Mark Lipdo from the Christian charity Stefanos said, "We saw mainly those who are helpless, like small children and … older men who cannot run; these were the ones that were slaughtered”, the BBC reports.

The government, now under the leadership of Acting President Goodluck Jonathan, is keen to show that it is in control of the situation. Advisor to the Plateau State government, Dan Manjang, told reporters that 95 arrests have been made and that security forces have been deployed to the affected areas, in which calm has been restored for the time being. Jonathan has ordered that the security forces keep a tight check on border controls for goods and persons entering into Plateau State to ensure that no weapons are brought in. However, according to an Associated Press reporter who passed through seven checkpoints where searches ought to have been carried out, none were done as some of the staging posts were unmanned, while at others the police just allowed cars to pass through unchecked.

In a sign that Jonathan is keen to find a solution to the recurring crisis in Jos, the Acting President dismissed his national security adviser, Sarki Mukhtar, yesterday (8 March). Mukhtar has been replaced with Aliyu Gusau, who was the national security adviser under former president Olusegun Obasanjo. Meanwhile, the U.S. government is pressing for Nigeria to investigate and prosecute those responsible, but in a manner in keeping with the rule of law and transparency. International non-governmental organisation (NGO) Human Rights Watch (HRW) has urged the government to provide police protection for villagers in areas surrounding Jos.

Root Cause

Jos, situated in Nigeria’s middle belt, has become synonymous with flare-ups of this kind, pointing to deep-seated frustrations manifested in religious polarisation. The middle belt is a mix of ethnic groups; more than 50 ethnic groups reside in Plateau State alone and at times inter-ethnic violence erupts as ideological differences are exploited. Jos is home to a majority of Christians, largely from the Berom, Anaguta, and Afisare ethnic groups, and land is a particularly emotive subject for the majority of peasant farmers. Indeed, some eye-witness accounts describe how some Hausa-Fulani-speaking cattlemen sought to take land, Associated Press reports. Economic difficulties have exacerbated tensions in the past. For instance, around the time when Shari'a law was introduced in 1999 in certain northern states of Nigeria, tensions rose as unemployment also took hold.

Outlook and Implications

This upsurge in violence has occurred at a time when Nigeria is experiencing an unsettling period politically, with the president absent from political life for over three months. Just as Jonathan was perhaps getting into his stride as acting president after weeks of inertia, he is now saddled with the very pressing task of dealing with the volatile situation in Jos. He will be required to ponder the root causes of the recurrent unrest in order to find sustainable solutions rather than just papering over the deep-seated divisions with cosmetic, short-term answers. Otherwise, there is genuine concern that hostilities could resurrect. Land ownership is a deep-seated cause of frustration, so the government will need to show its readiness to tackle the issue, perhaps by taking an inclusive approach, but in order for this to happen, the challenge is to find out precisely who is responsible for the attack. At the same time, Jonathan must be mindful not to neglect other flashpoints for potential violence in the country, namely the Niger Delta where militant groups have previously resumed hostilities when the government is preoccupied with other developments.