Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission (IEC) today announced the eagerly awaited official results of the Afghan presidential election that was held two months ago, confirming that incumbent president Hamid Karzai at 49.67 per cent of votes just missed the threshold of 50 per cent plus one vote needed to be declared the winner in the first round, adding that a second round of elections will be held on 7 November. This announcement comes one day after the United Nations-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) went ahead yesterday and made public its report over hundreds of allegations of fraud in Afghanistan's presidential election. Three main findings were communicated:

1. The ECC said that it ordered the IEC to invalidate a total of 210 polling stations from "around the country where the ECC found clear and convincing evidence of fraud".
2. More significantly, the ECC communicated "co-efficients of fraud" for six categories of a sample of ten per cent of the affected 3,377 polling stations, ordering the IEC to adjust the preliminary election results that put incumbent Hamid Karzai ahead of his main rival, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, at 54.6 compared to 26.8 per cent of the vote respectively.
3. The ECC also ruled that 18 polling stations that were previously quarantined by the IEC could be included in the final tally, saying that no clear evidence of fraud was found, but that all others are to remain excluded.

Although the ECC's decisions are binding for the IEC to implement, it was not immediately clear if the latter would actually comply with these orders, given that many have claimed it to be pro-Karzai and outright critical of the ways in which the ECC arrived at its conclusions. In this sense the IEC announcement of a second round of elections will come as a great relief to many observers of the political situation in Afghanistan, and indeed it appears that it defuses much of the simmering tension that was built up over the past two months. Still, the announcement of the second round of elections does not necessarily mean an end to political instability in Afghanistan, given that there are myriad issues that still need resolving.

With it being clear that there will be a second round of elections, the spotlight of attention now moves to the logistics of the undertaking, as there are numerous obstacles to be overcome, including the rapidly approaching winter. It is also far from known that the second round of elections would not be as fraudulent and marred by violence as the first. Many Afghans have also signalled election fatigue, saying they would not risk their lives going to the ballots again. Furthermore, a number of Karzai's allies have already said that they would not contest a second round of elections, including many tribal elders.

Overall, there are two main scenarios for the immediate political future of Afghanistan.

Scenario 1: Run-Off Elections Proceed as Planned; Either Karzai or Abdullah Win

It has repeatedly been stated in the past that, should it come to run-off elections, Abdullah's odds are greatly increased as he could in theory unite all the votes against Karzai that were previously reaped by challengers Ashraf Ghani, Ramazan Bashardost and others. But last week U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, said that Karzai is likely to emerge victorious, surely raising the spirits of Karzai. In reality either candidate could emerge victorious from the run-off elections, but in this scenario only Karzai or Abdullah will be forming the government.

Scenario 2: Run-Off Elections Proceed as Planned; Karzai and Abdullah Strike Deal for Unity Government

Even with run-off elections to be held, the prospect of a unity government in which both main presidential candidates have a stake is a realistic one, particularly given that the international community has been pushing hard in recent days for the two rivals to strike such a deal. Indeed, both candidates have significantly softened their previously fierce opposition to co-operating with each other, although the conditions for doing so still differ wildly. Ultimately, the findings of the ECC have increased Abdullah's bargaining power, as do international calls for Karzai to make significant concessions to Abdullah's demands, although Karzai is well aware that, as incumbent president, he remains in a strong position. In this scenario, Karzai is almost certain to remain Afghanistan's president. Abdullah could settle for a yet-to-be-created position of a prime minister (or chief executive) that has long been suggested to check and balance the extensive powers of the president; he could also be satisfied with a number of constitutional changes without himself assuming an important political role. There are literally myriad possibilities of the composition of the government, but Abdullah has made it clear that he wants to see a government that is staffed according to merit, not loyalty, meaning that a number of the warlords that Karzai has brought in may be forced to stay out of the government. This has the potential for creating some instability, but overall this scenario is the most likely to increase political stability. Not least, this would provide for a government through which the international community could continue to channel military and civilian aid, in turn providing for better opportunities to tackle the strengthening Taliban and al-Qaida threat, although the insurgency is likely to present a more long-term problem. Given the major disagreements between Karzai and Abdullah, however, such a deal could take weeks to materialise.

Outlook and Implications

The IEC's announcement of run-off elections to be held on 7 November is an important one, setting the stage for Afghanistan's immediate political future. It also has ramifications for most of the country's most pressing problems, some of which are interlinked: a Taliban that have made a resounding return since being routed from office by coalition forces in 2001; a government that enjoys little or no jurisdiction over most parts of the country, and one of the worst human development indicators in the world. It will also determine the extent to which the international community will be able to aid the Afghan government to address these issues, as a number of strategic reviews are pending. Overall, given that fears have been growing over Karzai and the IEC rejecting the ECC's fraud rulings, the announcement of the holding of run-off elections is a very positive one, and one that provides for the possibility of correcting some of the damage done by widespread violence and allegations of fraud during the first round. However, whatever the outcome, it is clear that Afghanistan's problems cannot be overcome overnight, suggesting that today's announcement of the official election results has only been a first step in a long process of tackling the country's deteriorating political and security situation.  

Global Insight (Reino Unido)