After stagnating in the third quarter, the Spanish economy continued to struggle at the start of the fourth quarter, signalled by deteriorating consumer confidence, contracting service-sector activity and tumbling new car sales.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: According to the National Statistical
Office, Spanish real GDP was unchanged between the second and third quarters of
2010.
Implications: The quarter-on-quarter breakdown of
third-quarter GDP was very disappointing, revealing that only a very steep drop
in imports prevented a renewed contraction in real GDP between the second and
third quarters.
Outlook: Spain may avoid a technical recession in the
coming months, but by any other definition the economy is engulfed by
recessionary conditions—falling employment, low core inflation, a prolonged
real estate slump and still rising unemployment when compared to a year ago.
Our outlook remains gloomy, with real GDP expected to contract by 0.3% in 2010
before expanding modestly by 0.3% in 2011 and 1.1% in 2012, according to the
November interim forecast.
According to the final release from the National
Statistics Office, Spain avoided contraction in the third quarter of
2010. Real GDP is estimated to have been flat between the second and third
quarters, after rises of an upwardly revised 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in
the second quarter and 0.1% q/q in the first. Spain emerged from its technical
recession in early 2010, after ending a sequence of six consecutive quarters of
declines. In annual terms, real GDP grew by just 0.2% year-on-year (y/y) in the
third quarter, compared to being flat in the second quarter and 1.4% y/y drop
in the first.
The q/q breakdown of third-quarter GDP was very
disappointing, revealing that only a very steep drop in imports prevented a
renewed contraction in real GDP between the second and third quarters. The key
expenditure sectors of consumer spending and business and construction
investment declined notably in the third quarter, while the export revival
lost considerable momentum.
Consumer Spending Falls Back Notably
Private consumption (excluding non-profit institutions)
retreated sharply in the third quarter of 2010, resulting from the end of the
one-off boost to spending on services during Spain's successful World Cup campaign
in the second quarter, coupled with the drag arising from the VAT increase on 1
July and the end of the car scrappage scheme at the end of June. Consequently,
overall household spending contracted by 1.1% q/q in the third quarter, after a
1.5% q/q rise in the previous quarter. In annual terms, it was up 1.4% y/y in
the third quarter, down from a 2.2% y/y gain in the March-June period, the
first increase since mid-2008. A breakdown by type of good and service reveals
notably weaker new car sales, with new registrations dropping 25.0% y/y in the
third quarter after a 39.5% y/y increase in the half of 2010. Clearly, car
sales have been hit after the withdrawal of the car scrappage scheme, which
gave buyers who scrapped an old car and bought a new, environmentally friendly
one an incentive of 2,000 euro. In addition, spending on other goods and
services was weak. There is some evidence that consumers brought forward
purchases to avoid the VAT rise on 1 July 2010. Spending on services was
particularly weak in the third quarter, highlighted by a marked deterioration
in the survey results from the sector.
Investment Activity Shrinks Alarmingly
Fixed investment spending continued to spiral down and at
an accelerated pace in the third quarter of 2010, falling 3.0% q/q after a 0.6%
q/q drop in the second quarter. This was the 12th successive q/q decline in
fixed investment, causing it to fall by 7.0% y/y in the third quarter and 6.8%
y/y in the second quarter. Ongoing concerns about the health of the property market
continued to diminish construction activity, which contracted by 3.2% over the
third quarter and was 11.6% lower than a year ago. This was 11th consecutive
quarter to register a decline on both quarterly and annual basis.
Residential investment continued to slide as the sector is still weighed down
by a large stock of unsold properties and markedly weaker than normal demand
for housing. The impetus from other construction activity, including public
investment, appeared to lose some momentum due to the winding up of
infrastructure projects funded by the State Local Investment Fund. Spending on
equipment slumped by 5.2% q/q in the third quarter, slowing the y/y change to
+2.4% y/y from +8.7% in the second quarter, the first annual increase since
mid-2008. Clearly, still weak industrial production and still low capacity
utilisation continue to mute certain types of business investment.
Government Spending Retreats Signalling Start of
Austerity Drive
An additional drag on domestic demand in the third
quarter of 2010 arose from government spending, which fell back 0.4% q/q in the
third quarter, following rises of 0.7% q/q in the second quarter and 0.1% q/q
in the first. In annual terms, it edged down by 0.1% y/y in the third quarter,
the first fall recorded since the quarterly series began in 1995. The
government has wound up its fiscal stimulus measures after spending heavily to
prop up the economy. The official Plan E 2009 had been set to fill the void
left by the residential construction slump, with central and local governments
spending 8 billion euro on some 30,000 infrastructure projects all over Spain
during 2009.
Spanish Export Revival Loses Momentum
Exports of goods and services slowed notably in the third
quarter, rising by just 0.1% q/q, after rises of 1.4% q/q in the second quarter
and 4.1% q/q in the first. Nevertheless, exports were still up by 8.7% y/y, the
third consecutive annual rise, but they have lost some ground after an11.6% y/y
gain in the second quarter. The benefits of the weaker euro in May and June are
fading, but Spanish exporters continue to exploit the gradual recovery in
demand across the Eurozone, United Kingdom and United States. Meanwhile, import
demand weakened markedly in the third quarter, falling 5.3% q/q but remained
3.9% higher than a year ago.
Outlook and Implications
The q/q breakdown of third-quarter GDP was very
disappointing, and signals that the economy is clearly struggling. In addition,
the situation appears to be worse than the Bank of Spain's assertion last
week that overall economic activity stagnated temporarily in the third quarter,
and is set to return to a "mild recovery track".
Worryingly, several indicators deteriorated at the start of the
fourth quarter, primarily a renewed fall in consumer confidence, a brisker
contraction in service sector activity and tumbling new car
sales, suggesting the economy is failing to generate any
recovery momentum.
Spain may avoid a technical recession in early 2011, but
by any other measure the economy remains mired in recession, signalled by
very weak domestic spending, struggling labour market and a prolonged real
estate slump. Specifically, domestic spending contracted at a brisker pace
in the third quarter, and the outlook is far from encouraging. Consumers
remain very downbeat, struggling to adapt the rise in VAT, higher energy and
housing costs, the renewed rise in unemployment and the end of the car
scrappage scheme. Meanwhile, the investment
climate remains tough, with Spanish companies continuing to endure
below normal capacity utilisation, uncertain profitability, and recovering—but
still very fragile—demand both at home and abroad. This is compounded by the
continuous weakness of residential construction, with the property market
struggling to absorb a million-plus unsold new properties. Furthermore, the
economy has yet to face the full impact of the tough austerity measures, which
will be a severe jolt after the prolonged period of deep government fiscal
stimulus. The positive contribution from the external sector is likely to
wane over the coming months. Worryingly, the export environment is likely
to be increasingly challenging in late 2010 and 2011, weighed down by the
prospect of weaker global recovery, uneven domestic demand in several
European countries with governments implementing tough austerity measures and
significant euro gains after plunging to its early June 2010 low
of 1 euro:US$1.19. Spanish exporters could struggle to sustain their impressive
performance witnessed during 2010.
We expect real GDP to contract by 0.3% in 2010
before expanding modestly by 0.3% in 2011 and 1.1% in 2012, according to
our latest forecast.
fecha |
Título |
03/04/2011| |
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26/03/2011| |
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20/03/2011| |
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26/02/2011| |
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18/02/2011| |
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18/02/2011| |
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15/02/2011| |
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12/02/2011| |
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10/02/2011| |
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10/02/2011| |
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07/02/2011| |
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03/02/2011| |
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01/02/2011| |
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29/01/2011| |
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26/01/2011| |
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26/01/2011| |
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26/01/2011| |
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25/01/2011| |
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22/01/2011| |
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20/01/2011| |
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20/01/2011| |
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18/01/2011| |
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18/01/2011| |
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17/01/2011| |
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17/01/2011| |
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15/01/2011| |
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14/01/2011| |
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12/01/2011| |
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12/01/2011| |
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10/01/2011| |
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06/01/2011| |
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06/01/2011| |
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01/01/2011| |
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31/12/2010| |
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31/12/2010| |
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25/12/2010| |
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25/12/2010| |
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25/12/2010| |
|
18/12/2010| |
|
14/12/2010| |
|
10/12/2010| |
|
26/11/2010| |
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26/11/2010| |
|
20/11/2010| |
|
17/11/2010| |
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17/11/2010| |
|
15/11/2010| |
|
13/11/2010| |
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13/11/2010| |
|
12/11/2010| |
|
12/11/2010| |
|
05/11/2010| |
|
04/11/2010| |
|
04/11/2010| |
|
31/10/2010| |
|
09/10/2010| |
|
02/10/2010| |
|
02/10/2010| |
|
17/09/2010| |
|
10/09/2010| |
|
10/09/2010| |
|
10/07/2010| |
|
10/07/2010| |
|
08/04/2010| |
|
05/04/2010| |
|
18/03/2010| |
|
17/03/2010| |
|
16/03/2010| |
|
09/03/2010| |
|
09/03/2010| |
|
05/03/2010| |
|
05/03/2010| |
|
04/03/2010| |
|
03/03/2010| |
|
01/03/2010| |
|
26/02/2010| |
|
26/02/2010| |
|
24/02/2010| |
|
23/02/2010| |
|
22/02/2010| |
|
20/02/2010| |
|
20/02/2010| |
|
17/02/2010| |
|
17/02/2010| |
|
16/02/2010| |
|
15/02/2010| |
|
12/02/2010| |
|
11/02/2010| |
|
10/02/2010| |
|
09/02/2010| |
|
08/02/2010| |
|
05/02/2010| |
|
04/02/2010| |
|
04/02/2010| |
|
04/02/2010| |
|
02/02/2010| |
|
01/02/2010| |
|
31/01/2010| |
|
31/01/2010| |
|
22/01/2010| |
|
21/01/2010| |
|
20/01/2010| |
|
19/01/2010| |
|
19/01/2010| |
|
15/01/2010| |
|
14/01/2010| |
|
13/01/2010| |
|
12/01/2010| |
|
11/01/2010| |
|
08/01/2010| |
|
07/01/2010| |
|
07/01/2010| |
|
05/01/2010| |
|
04/01/2010| |
|
31/12/2009| |
|
31/12/2009| |
|
30/12/2009| |
|
24/12/2009| |
|
23/12/2009| |
|
22/12/2009| |
|
21/12/2009| |
|
18/12/2009| |
|
17/12/2009| |
|
16/12/2009| |
|
15/12/2009| |
|
15/12/2009| |
|
14/12/2009| |
|
14/12/2009| |
|
13/12/2009| |
|
13/12/2009| |
|
11/12/2009| |
|
11/12/2009| |
|
10/12/2009| |
|
10/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
03/12/2009| |
|
03/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
27/11/2009| |
|
27/11/2009| |
|
26/11/2009| |
|
26/11/2009| |
|
25/11/2009| |
|
25/11/2009| |
|
24/11/2009| |
|
24/11/2009| |
|
23/11/2009| |
|
23/11/2009| |
|
22/11/2009| |
|
22/11/2009| |
|
16/11/2009| |
|
16/11/2009| |
|
13/11/2009| |
|
13/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
10/11/2009| |
|
10/11/2009| |
|
07/11/2009| |
|
06/11/2009| |
|
04/11/2009| |
|
04/11/2009| |
|
02/11/2009| |
|
31/10/2009| |
|
30/10/2009| |
|
29/10/2009| |
|
28/10/2009| |
|
27/10/2009| |
|
21/10/2009| |
|
21/10/2009| |
|
19/10/2009| |
|
15/10/2009| |
|
14/10/2009| |
|
13/10/2009| |
|
12/10/2009| |
|
09/10/2009| |
|
09/10/2009| |
|
07/10/2009| |
|
06/10/2009| |
|
05/10/2009| |
|
02/10/2009| |
|
01/10/2009| |
|
01/10/2009| |
|
01/10/2009| |
|
30/09/2009| |
|
30/09/2009| |
|
21/09/2009| |
|
19/09/2009| |
|
17/09/2009| |
|
16/09/2009| |
|
15/09/2009| |
|
14/09/2009| |
|
12/09/2009| |
|
12/09/2009| |
|
12/09/2009| |
|
10/09/2009| |
|
09/09/2009| |
|
08/09/2009| |
|
07/09/2009| |
|
05/09/2009| |
|
04/09/2009| |
|
03/09/2009| |
|
02/09/2009| |
|
01/09/2009| |
|
31/08/2009| |
|
29/08/2009| |
|
27/08/2009| |
|
27/08/2009| |
|
26/08/2009| |
|
24/08/2009| |
|
21/08/2009| |
|
20/08/2009| |
|
19/08/2009| |
|
18/08/2009| |
|
17/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
12/08/2009| |
|
12/08/2009| |
|
11/08/2009| |
|
11/08/2009| |
|
10/08/2009| |
|
10/08/2009| |
|
07/08/2009| |
|
07/08/2009| |
|
06/08/2009| |
|
06/08/2009| |
|
05/08/2009| |
|
05/08/2009| |
|
04/08/2009| |
|
04/08/2009| |
|
03/08/2009| |
|
03/08/2009| |
|
01/08/2009| |
|
01/08/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
27/07/2009| |
|
27/07/2009| |
|
25/07/2009| |
|
25/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
21/07/2009| |
|
21/07/2009| |
|
20/07/2009| |
|
20/07/2009| |
|
17/07/2009| |
|
17/07/2009| |
|
16/07/2009| |
|
16/07/2009| |
|
16/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
28/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
18/01/2009| |
|
10/01/2009| |
|
06/01/2009| |
|
05/01/2009| |
|
02/01/2009| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
24/09/2008| |
|
24/09/2008| |
|
20/09/2008| |
|
20/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
10/09/2008| |
|
10/09/2008| |
|
08/09/2008| |
|
08/09/2008| |
|
17/08/2008| |
|
17/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
13/05/2008| |
|
12/05/2008| |
|
12/05/2008| |
|
10/05/2008| |
|
04/05/2008| |
|
02/05/2008| |
|
27/04/2008| |
|
27/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
06/04/2008| |
|
26/03/2008| |
|
20/03/2008| |
|
19/03/2008| |
|
13/03/2008| |
|
10/03/2008| |
|
07/03/2008| |
|
05/03/2008| |
|
18/02/2008| |
|
06/02/2008| |
|
03/02/2008| |
|
01/02/2008| |
|
01/02/2008| |
|
21/12/2007| |
|
21/12/2007| |
|
08/12/2007| |
|
08/12/2007| |
|
02/11/2007| |
|
30/10/2007| |
|
30/10/2007| |
|
27/10/2007| |
|
25/10/2007| |
|
20/10/2007| |
|
04/10/2007| |
|
28/09/2007| |
|
28/09/2007| |
|
31/08/2007| |
|
31/08/2007| |
|
30/08/2007| |
|
30/08/2007| |
|
15/08/2007| |
|
11/08/2007| |
|
11/08/2007| |
|
31/07/2007| |
|
28/07/2007| |
|
28/07/2007| |
|
04/07/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
13/06/2007| |
|
13/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
16/05/2007| |
|
16/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
30/04/2007| |
|
30/04/2007| |
|
26/04/2007| |
|
26/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
21/04/2007| |
|
21/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
10/04/2007| |
|
10/04/2007| |
|
07/04/2007| |
|
07/04/2007| |
|
04/04/2007| |
|
04/04/2007| |
|
02/04/2007| |
|
02/04/2007| |
|
01/04/2007| |
|
28/03/2007| |
|
28/03/2007| |
|
25/03/2007| |
|
25/03/2007| |
|
20/03/2007| |
|
20/03/2007| |
|
28/02/2007| |
|
23/01/2007| |
|
23/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
|
06/01/2007| |
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06/01/2007| |
|
04/01/2007| |
|
04/01/2007| |
|
29/12/2006| |
|
29/12/2006| |
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28/12/2006| |
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28/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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20/12/2006| |
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20/12/2006| |
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20/12/2006| |
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20/12/2006| |
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16/12/2006| |
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16/12/2006| |
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16/12/2006| |
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16/12/2006| |
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15/12/2006| |
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15/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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12/12/2006| |
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12/12/2006| |
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12/12/2006| |
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12/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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09/12/2006| |
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09/12/2006| |
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02/12/2006| |
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02/12/2006| |
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02/12/2006| |
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02/12/2006| |
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25/11/2006| |
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25/11/2006| |
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23/11/2006| |
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23/11/2006| |
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22/11/2006| |
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22/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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11/11/2006| |
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11/11/2006| |
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02/11/2006| |
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01/11/2006| |
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01/11/2006| |
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28/10/2006| |
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28/10/2006| |
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28/10/2006| |
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28/10/2006| |
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20/10/2006| |
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20/10/2006| |
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20/10/2006| |
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20/10/2006| |
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14/10/2006| |
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14/10/2006| |
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07/10/2006| |
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07/10/2006| |
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07/10/2006| |
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05/10/2006| |
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04/10/2006| |
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04/10/2006| |
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04/10/2006| |
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04/10/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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06/09/2006| |
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04/09/2006| |
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04/09/2006| |
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02/09/2006| |
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02/09/2006| |
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02/09/2006| |
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01/09/2006| |
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30/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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21/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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18/07/2006| |
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16/07/2006| |
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13/07/2006| |
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12/07/2006| |
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12/07/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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06/07/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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28/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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04/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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