It is highly likely that a general election will be brought forward in Ireland after the Green Party pulled out of the governing coalition and Prime Minister Brian Cowen quit as Fianna Fáil leader over the weekend (22–23 January).
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: The Green Party has pulled out of the
governing coalition and the Irish prime minister has resigned as leader of the
senior ruling Fianna Fáil party.
Implications: There is pressure for a new finance bill to
be pushed through before an election, and it is possible that any delay to this
legislation will result in a no-confidence vote from opposition parties.
Outlook: It is almost certain that a general election
will be brought forward, although any new government will face a public
backlash over painful austerity measures. Although a Fine Gael-Labour coalition
is likely to be returned at polling day, differences between the two parties
over economic policy may threaten Ireland's future political stability.
Following a week of political turmoil, Irish prime
minister Brian Cowen has announced his resignation as leader of Fianna Fáil
(FF) and the junior Green Party has pulled out of the government coalition. It
is now likely that Ireland's general election will take place earlier than the
scheduled date of 11 March 2011. Although Cowen took the decision at the
weekend (22 January) to step down as FF leader, he signalled his intention to
stay on as Taoiseach (prime minister). A few days earlier Cowen survived a
confidence vote held by his party but six senior ministers later resigned and
the Taoiseach subsequently called an election for 11 March. Announcing his
resignation as FF leader, Cowen said that he had taken the decision based on
the implications for his party after his attempts to replace senior ministerial
positions failed last week.
Following Cowen's resignation, Green Party leader John
Gormley said yesterday that patience with FF had finally reached an end and
that his party had decided to join the opposition benches. As part of the
party's withdrawal from government, the two Green senior ministers have quit
their posts, leaving only seven ministers in the cabinet. Under Ireland's
constitution, there have to be at least seven ministers in cabinet, although 15
is the standard amount (as had been the case until the eight resignations this
past week). Gormley's Environment, Heritage and Local Government ministerial
portfolio has been reassigned to Éamon Ó Cuív, while Éamon Ryan's
Communications, Energy and Natural Resources portfolio has been given to Pat
Carey. As a result of the Green Party's exit, the government's previous
two-seat parliamentary majority has been wiped out and a fresh election is
almost inevitable.
The Irish media have indicated that a parliamentary
election is now likely to take place on 25 February, which would enable the
main parties to agree on a timetable to pass important outstanding
parliamentary bills. Today, negotiations will continue between the major
parties over an agreement on the finance bill and an election date. Meanwhile,
FF will choose a new leader, with a party vote scheduled to take place on
Wednesday (26 January). Former foreign minister Micheál Martin, who resigned
from the cabinet last week, is the current favourite to lead FF. Martin's bold
stance against Cowen's leadership has drummed up considerable support from the
party's grassroots members, many of whom are appalled by FF's grim public
approval ratings despite the party having been in power for 22 of the past 24
years.
Passage of Crucial Finance Bill Under Pressure
The besieged government is now focused on pushing through
a crucial finance bill, required as part of Ireland's budgetary responsibility
surrounding its recent external bailout. In November 2010, the government was
forced to accept an 85-billion-euro (US$115-billion) crisis package from the
European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a result of a vast
budget deficit and near collapse of the country's banking system . As a
condition of the EU/IMF-sponsored bailout, the government has drawn up an austerity
budget to slash public spending, including income tax rises, reduced social
welfare spending, and energy tax increases. An ambitious fiscal consolidation
target of some 15 billion euro in savings is planned for 2011–14, although the
severe cutbacks are set to hit households hard.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has invited
representatives of the Green Party and opposition groups to meet with him later
today in order to discuss a way to enact the legislation before the upcoming
election. The Irish Times reports that opposition parties Fine Gael
(FG) and Labour are demanding a commitment from FF that the finance bill will
be pushed through parliament by the end of this week, although Lenihan has
suggested that this is unlikely to take place before 3 February. In fact,
opposition parties have allegedly threatened no-confidence motions against the
Taoiseach if there is not adequate progress on the finance bill and election
timetable. Although FF had pressured the Green Party to remain in government in
order to secure the passage of the bill, it appears that the Greens will now
rally support from the opposition benches to push the legislation through.
Yesterday, Gormley revealed that he had discussed opposition support for the
finance bill with FG representatives before the Greens took the decision to
quit the government. Gormley also said that he agreed with FF over the 3
February timeframe, although the Greens were now looking to support a
"severely truncated" bill.
Outlook and Implications
The finance bill is set to dominate party debates over
the next week, with any delay by the government in ensuring its passage likely
to spark the wrath of the opposition. In fact, the main opposition parties want
an assurance about the election date to be tied in with the passage of the
finance bill. In view of the now minority government's fundamental weakness,
notwithstanding Cowen's unpopularity within his own party, it is possible that
a no-confidence vote will be instigated against the Taoiseach by opposition
parties over the next 10 days. Although the main parties appear to recognise
that Ireland's current political volatility is highly damaging for the markets,
they are likely to want to capitalise on the government's disintegration and
FF's fall from grace, in view of the party's long-standing domination of Irish
politics.
According to recent opinion polls, public support for FF
stands at only 13% and it is almost certain that Fine Gael and the Labour Party
will be returned to power at polling day. The two parties have co-operated in
government in the past, although they retain important economic differences.
Given that any new government will need to implement painful austerity
measures, such differences are likely to make the process of government
formation and subsequent policy-making highly challenging. Moreover, the
expected public backlash as a result of unpopular welfare spending cuts and
income tax rises will serve to complicate the difficult business of overseeing
Ireland's challenging road to economic recovery.
fecha |
Título |
03/04/2011| |
|
26/03/2011| |
|
20/03/2011| |
|
26/02/2011| |
|
18/02/2011| |
|
18/02/2011| |
|
15/02/2011| |
|
12/02/2011| |
|
10/02/2011| |
|
10/02/2011| |
|
07/02/2011| |
|
03/02/2011| |
|
01/02/2011| |
|
29/01/2011| |
|
26/01/2011| |
|
26/01/2011| |
|
26/01/2011| |
|
22/01/2011| |
|
20/01/2011| |
|
20/01/2011| |
|
18/01/2011| |
|
18/01/2011| |
|
17/01/2011| |
|
17/01/2011| |
|
15/01/2011| |
|
14/01/2011| |
|
12/01/2011| |
|
12/01/2011| |
|
10/01/2011| |
|
06/01/2011| |
|
06/01/2011| |
|
01/01/2011| |
|
31/12/2010| |
|
31/12/2010| |
|
25/12/2010| |
|
25/12/2010| |
|
25/12/2010| |
|
18/12/2010| |
|
14/12/2010| |
|
10/12/2010| |
|
26/11/2010| |
|
26/11/2010| |
|
20/11/2010| |
|
17/11/2010| |
|
17/11/2010| |
|
17/11/2010| |
|
15/11/2010| |
|
13/11/2010| |
|
13/11/2010| |
|
12/11/2010| |
|
12/11/2010| |
|
05/11/2010| |
|
04/11/2010| |
|
04/11/2010| |
|
31/10/2010| |
|
09/10/2010| |
|
02/10/2010| |
|
02/10/2010| |
|
17/09/2010| |
|
10/09/2010| |
|
10/09/2010| |
|
10/07/2010| |
|
10/07/2010| |
|
08/04/2010| |
|
05/04/2010| |
|
18/03/2010| |
|
17/03/2010| |
|
16/03/2010| |
|
09/03/2010| |
|
09/03/2010| |
|
05/03/2010| |
|
05/03/2010| |
|
04/03/2010| |
|
03/03/2010| |
|
01/03/2010| |
|
26/02/2010| |
|
26/02/2010| |
|
24/02/2010| |
|
23/02/2010| |
|
22/02/2010| |
|
20/02/2010| |
|
20/02/2010| |
|
17/02/2010| |
|
17/02/2010| |
|
16/02/2010| |
|
15/02/2010| |
|
12/02/2010| |
|
11/02/2010| |
|
10/02/2010| |
|
09/02/2010| |
|
08/02/2010| |
|
05/02/2010| |
|
04/02/2010| |
|
04/02/2010| |
|
04/02/2010| |
|
02/02/2010| |
|
01/02/2010| |
|
31/01/2010| |
|
31/01/2010| |
|
22/01/2010| |
|
21/01/2010| |
|
20/01/2010| |
|
19/01/2010| |
|
19/01/2010| |
|
15/01/2010| |
|
14/01/2010| |
|
13/01/2010| |
|
12/01/2010| |
|
11/01/2010| |
|
08/01/2010| |
|
07/01/2010| |
|
07/01/2010| |
|
05/01/2010| |
|
04/01/2010| |
|
31/12/2009| |
|
31/12/2009| |
|
30/12/2009| |
|
24/12/2009| |
|
23/12/2009| |
|
22/12/2009| |
|
21/12/2009| |
|
18/12/2009| |
|
17/12/2009| |
|
16/12/2009| |
|
15/12/2009| |
|
15/12/2009| |
|
14/12/2009| |
|
14/12/2009| |
|
13/12/2009| |
|
13/12/2009| |
|
11/12/2009| |
|
11/12/2009| |
|
10/12/2009| |
|
10/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
03/12/2009| |
|
03/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
27/11/2009| |
|
27/11/2009| |
|
26/11/2009| |
|
26/11/2009| |
|
25/11/2009| |
|
25/11/2009| |
|
24/11/2009| |
|
24/11/2009| |
|
23/11/2009| |
|
23/11/2009| |
|
22/11/2009| |
|
22/11/2009| |
|
16/11/2009| |
|
16/11/2009| |
|
13/11/2009| |
|
13/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
10/11/2009| |
|
10/11/2009| |
|
07/11/2009| |
|
06/11/2009| |
|
04/11/2009| |
|
04/11/2009| |
|
02/11/2009| |
|
31/10/2009| |
|
30/10/2009| |
|
29/10/2009| |
|
28/10/2009| |
|
27/10/2009| |
|
21/10/2009| |
|
21/10/2009| |
|
19/10/2009| |
|
15/10/2009| |
|
14/10/2009| |
|
13/10/2009| |
|
12/10/2009| |
|
09/10/2009| |
|
09/10/2009| |
|
07/10/2009| |
|
06/10/2009| |
|
05/10/2009| |
|
02/10/2009| |
|
01/10/2009| |
|
01/10/2009| |
|
01/10/2009| |
|
30/09/2009| |
|
30/09/2009| |
|
21/09/2009| |
|
19/09/2009| |
|
17/09/2009| |
|
16/09/2009| |
|
15/09/2009| |
|
14/09/2009| |
|
12/09/2009| |
|
12/09/2009| |
|
12/09/2009| |
|
10/09/2009| |
|
09/09/2009| |
|
08/09/2009| |
|
07/09/2009| |
|
05/09/2009| |
|
04/09/2009| |
|
03/09/2009| |
|
02/09/2009| |
|
01/09/2009| |
|
31/08/2009| |
|
29/08/2009| |
|
27/08/2009| |
|
27/08/2009| |
|
26/08/2009| |
|
24/08/2009| |
|
21/08/2009| |
|
20/08/2009| |
|
19/08/2009| |
|
18/08/2009| |
|
17/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
12/08/2009| |
|
12/08/2009| |
|
11/08/2009| |
|
11/08/2009| |
|
10/08/2009| |
|
10/08/2009| |
|
07/08/2009| |
|
07/08/2009| |
|
06/08/2009| |
|
06/08/2009| |
|
05/08/2009| |
|
05/08/2009| |
|
04/08/2009| |
|
04/08/2009| |
|
03/08/2009| |
|
03/08/2009| |
|
01/08/2009| |
|
01/08/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
27/07/2009| |
|
27/07/2009| |
|
25/07/2009| |
|
25/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
21/07/2009| |
|
21/07/2009| |
|
20/07/2009| |
|
20/07/2009| |
|
17/07/2009| |
|
17/07/2009| |
|
16/07/2009| |
|
16/07/2009| |
|
16/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
28/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
18/01/2009| |
|
10/01/2009| |
|
06/01/2009| |
|
05/01/2009| |
|
02/01/2009| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
24/09/2008| |
|
24/09/2008| |
|
20/09/2008| |
|
20/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
10/09/2008| |
|
10/09/2008| |
|
08/09/2008| |
|
08/09/2008| |
|
17/08/2008| |
|
17/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
13/05/2008| |
|
12/05/2008| |
|
12/05/2008| |
|
10/05/2008| |
|
04/05/2008| |
|
02/05/2008| |
|
27/04/2008| |
|
27/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
06/04/2008| |
|
26/03/2008| |
|
20/03/2008| |
|
19/03/2008| |
|
13/03/2008| |
|
10/03/2008| |
|
07/03/2008| |
|
05/03/2008| |
|
18/02/2008| |
|
06/02/2008| |
|
03/02/2008| |
|
01/02/2008| |
|
01/02/2008| |
|
21/12/2007| |
|
21/12/2007| |
|
08/12/2007| |
|
08/12/2007| |
|
02/11/2007| |
|
30/10/2007| |
|
30/10/2007| |
|
27/10/2007| |
|
25/10/2007| |
|
20/10/2007| |
|
04/10/2007| |
|
28/09/2007| |
|
28/09/2007| |
|
31/08/2007| |
|
31/08/2007| |
|
30/08/2007| |
|
30/08/2007| |
|
15/08/2007| |
|
11/08/2007| |
|
11/08/2007| |
|
31/07/2007| |
|
28/07/2007| |
|
28/07/2007| |
|
04/07/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
13/06/2007| |
|
13/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
16/05/2007| |
|
16/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
30/04/2007| |
|
30/04/2007| |
|
26/04/2007| |
|
26/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
21/04/2007| |
|
21/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
10/04/2007| |
|
10/04/2007| |
|
07/04/2007| |
|
07/04/2007| |
|
04/04/2007| |
|
04/04/2007| |
|
02/04/2007| |
|
02/04/2007| |
|
01/04/2007| |
|
28/03/2007| |
|
28/03/2007| |
|
25/03/2007| |
|
25/03/2007| |
|
20/03/2007| |
|
20/03/2007| |
|
28/02/2007| |
|
23/01/2007| |
|
23/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
06/01/2007| |
|
06/01/2007| |
|
04/01/2007| |
|
04/01/2007| |
|
29/12/2006| |
|
29/12/2006| |
|
28/12/2006| |
|
28/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
20/12/2006| |
|
20/12/2006| |
|
20/12/2006| |
|
20/12/2006| |
|
16/12/2006| |
|
16/12/2006| |
|
16/12/2006| |
|
16/12/2006| |
|
15/12/2006| |
|
15/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
12/12/2006| |
|
12/12/2006| |
|
12/12/2006| |
|
12/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
09/12/2006| |
|
09/12/2006| |
|
02/12/2006| |
|
02/12/2006| |
|
02/12/2006| |
|
02/12/2006| |
|
25/11/2006| |
|
25/11/2006| |
|
23/11/2006| |
|
23/11/2006| |
|
22/11/2006| |
|
22/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
11/11/2006| |
|
11/11/2006| |
|
02/11/2006| |
|
01/11/2006| |
|
01/11/2006| |
|
28/10/2006| |
|
28/10/2006| |
|
28/10/2006| |
|
28/10/2006| |
|
20/10/2006| |
|
20/10/2006| |
|
20/10/2006| |
|
20/10/2006| |
|
14/10/2006| |
|
14/10/2006| |
|
07/10/2006| |
|
07/10/2006| |
|
07/10/2006| |
|
05/10/2006| |
|
04/10/2006| |
|
04/10/2006| |
|
04/10/2006| |
|
04/10/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
06/09/2006| |
|
04/09/2006| |
|
04/09/2006| |
|
02/09/2006| |
|
02/09/2006| |
|
02/09/2006| |
|
01/09/2006| |
|
30/08/2006| |
|
02/08/2006| |
|
02/08/2006| |
|
30/07/2006| |
|
30/07/2006| |
|
27/07/2006| |
|
27/07/2006| |
|
21/07/2006| |
|
20/07/2006| |
|
20/07/2006| |
|
18/07/2006| |
|
16/07/2006| |
|
13/07/2006| |
|
12/07/2006| |
|
12/07/2006| |
|
07/07/2006| |
|
07/07/2006| |
|
06/07/2006| |
|
29/06/2006| |
|
29/06/2006| |
|
29/06/2006| |
|
29/06/2006| |
|
28/06/2006| |
|
26/06/2006| |
|
26/06/2006| |
|
21/06/2006| |
|
21/06/2006| |
|
20/06/2006| |
|
20/06/2006| |
|
04/06/2006| |
|
09/05/2006| |
|
03/05/2006| |
|
03/05/2006| |
|
03/05/2006| |
|
03/05/2006| |
|
18/02/2006| |
|
04/02/2006| |
|
04/02/2006| |
|
29/01/2006| |
|
23/09/2005| |
|