After months of deliberations over the way forward in Afghanistan, U.S. president Barack Obama announced his new Afghan strategy at the prestigious U.S. military academy at West Point today. His announcement did not contain many surprises, given that vital details were already leaked in the week prior to the announcement, but it effectively ended weeks of speculation over the exact number of troops that Obama would add to those already serving in Afghanistan. While the new strategy contains a number of new edges and cornerstones compared with the old Af-Pak strategy that was adopted only in March this year, the core objective remains the same: the defeat of al-Qaida in the region, to turn the tide against the Taliban and to build up domestic security forces and institutions.
Obama's new strategy won both praise and criticism from state leaders around the world. Traditionally the strongest U.S. ally, U.K. prime minister Gordon Brown called on NATO members and other key U.S. allies to support efforts in Afghanistan, himself offering the deployment of an additional 500 troops to Afghanistan by early December, despite waning domestic popularity of the Afghan war effort. The Secretary-General of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said that he was "confident" that NATO members would come forward to become more engaged in Afghanistan, with Italy and Poland in particular having pledged an undisclosed number of additional troops already. While also signalling support for the broad strategy, reactions from Germany, France and Australia were less enthusiastic, with Germany and France holding back any decision on additional troops until after an Afghanistan conference on 28 January, while Australia bluntly ruled out any further reinforcement of its contingent. Japan also expressed broad support, and reiterated its promise of pouring US$5 billion of civilian aid into Afghanistan. Other countries that welcomed the strategy and pledged more troops include South Korea and Macedonia. The Afghan government also welcomed Obama's decision.
The decision to increase troop numbers was always going to be a tough sell back in the United States. The military is badly strained after eight years of conflict in Afghanistan and Iraq, the costs are enormous at a time when public finances are already in colossal deficit, and an escalation of military action runs counter to the instincts of many in President Obama's Democratic Party. In this context, he elected for a sombre, thoughtful tone as he addressed cadets at the elite West Point academy, drawing a contrast with his predecessor's eternal optimism and, at times, premature triumphalism.
Obama cannot afford to ignore the political reaction to his new strategy, not least because Congress will have to agree to finance it. On the face of it, one would expect the Republicans, rather than the Democrats, to be the strongest supporters of the increased troop deployment. After all, it carries strong echoes the last administration's Iraq "surge" that prompted a huge partisan battle in 2007. Most Republicans do indeed prefer a tough military strategy in the "war on terror", but they have such a jaundiced view of Obama's presidency that endorsements will be grudging. Before the announcement, Obama was denounced for "dithering", particularly by former vice-president Dick Cheney, and the insinuation that Obama is somehow too academic and pragmatic to run a war will continue to hang over him. On the Democratic side, there will be substantial support for the strategy, however reluctant, but there will undoubtedly need to be some Republican votes too in order to pass the required finances. Members of the Democrats' liberal wing warned yesterday that Obama's strategy risked repeating the mistakes of Vietnam.
Obama's emphasis on an exit strategy was clearly aimed at sceptical Democrats, but at the same time it risks alienating Republicans and Democrats' more conservative wing. One of the more moderate Republican senators, John McCain, warned yesterday that "The way that you win wars is you break the enemy's will, not announce when you are leaving."
Obama's new Afghan strategy is effectively a compromise that is less aimed at pleasing anyone rather than averting the massive criticism that would have ensued if he went for more radical solutions. Given the widely diverging opinions on whether and how the Afghan war can yet be won, it is clear that there are no good options on the table, and perhaps Obama's middle path is the only viable option to be pursued at the moment. Now knowing the broad contours of the new U.S.–Afghan strategy, it remains to be seen in the coming weeks what the more fine-grained details are. More broadly, while the U.S. public may be somewhat quietened knowing that there is an exit strategy on the table, the withdrawal of international forces will not necessarily mean that Afghanistan's extremely complex conflict has come to an end. Even if Afghan forces will be ready to take over the fight, insecurity and political instability are set to haunt Afghanistan for some time to come.
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