After more than 10 days of violent clashes across Yemen, which left as many as 12 anti-government protesters dead, President Ali Abdullah Saleh once again called for dialogue in a rare press conference with international media on 21 February.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: Embattled Yemeni President Ali Abdullah
Saleh has repeated his call for political dialogue with the opposition in the
face of rising protests and violence.
Implications: Opposition groups have become more
organised and entrenched, while Shi’a Houthi rebels have thrown their support
behind those calling for political change, increasing pressure on the
government.
Outlook: Saleh’s survival is likely to become more
dependent then ever on his ability to secure the support traditional tribal
allies.
Calling the spread of uprisings in the region an
“influenza”, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told international media on 21
February: “I’ve said let’s agree on reforms. See what we need to do in terms of
reforms and create a coalition.”
Up to 50,000 protesters have gathered at a time in
ongoing demonstrations, with Taiz, 130 miles south of the capital Sana’a,
drawing the largest crowds since the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak
on 11 February. Protesters have travelled to the highland city from the surrounding
villages and towns, and other provinces, to take part. The most serious
violence has been in the southern port city of Aden, where southern
separatist-led demonstrators have clashed with government security forces,
leaving as many as 11 dead. Security forces abandoned several districts of the
city after protesters burnt down a police station, shops, and some government
vehicles on 18 February.
The first day of peaceful demonstrating in Sana’a was 20
February, as more than 2,000 students began a sit-in outside the capital’s main
university, with several hundred staying on the streets overnight. Similar
encampments have been present in Taiz for more than a week. The previous day
saw the most serious violence on the capital’s street to date, when two plain-clothes
policemen shot four students. The first evidence of government troops being
mobilised against citizens in the capital was seen at a night-time protest on
the same day, which ended with activists fleeing though the streets near the
university when highly trained and armed Central Security Force members charged
a peaceful march of anti-government demonstrators.
Anti-government activists have become increasingly
organised. A committee has been set up to arrange food and water supplies for
protesters camping out at Sana’a University. Claiming no political allegiance,
they plan to formally announce their demands, including the resignation of the
president, in the coming days. On the roads leading to the university,
demonstrators have created a human shield of linked arms around the encampment,
with anyone entering the cordon subjected to frisking and bag checks to prevent
arms and pro-Saleh men infiltrating the demonstration. For two nights, riot
police have set up lines 200 yards from the activists’ cordon to keep a group
of several hundred pro-Saleh men separate from the mainly student protesters.
The northern Houthi rebels have also pledged their
allegiance with the protesters calling for the end of Saleh’s 32-year rule.
Demonstrations in the northern province of Saada were reported on 21 February.
A fragile ceasefire, signed to end the sixth war since 2004 in Saada between
the Houthis and pro-government tribes and the military, has held since February
last year.
Tribal Allegiances
President Saleh has been seeking to consolidate his
support, following the announcement by seven members of parliament from his
General People’s Congress (GPC) party of their resignation on 23 February as a
result of recent violence, and the refusal by the speaker of the house to
discuss the issue in parliament. The coalition of opposition parties, the Joint
Meeting Parties (JMP), withdrew their agreement to talks with the president and
GPC following recent violence and deaths on 18 February, including a grenade
attack on demonstrators in Taiz which left one man dead and more than 30
injured.
The loyalty of the tribes is crucial to the president
maintaining his power base, and equally important to those seeking to undermine
his position. On 20 February, Saleh held a rally addressing some 30,000
loyalist tribesmen. However, hundreds of tribesmen from Arhab arrived in Sana’a
on 21 February to show their support for the student-led movement. Campaigners
expect others from Marib, Al-Jawf, and Saada.
Against the backdrop of the grass-roots demonstrations
has been a tribal squabble between Hamid al-Ahmar, one of the main leaders of
the Islamic Islah party—Yemen’s largest opposition party with close links to
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood—and the governor of Sana’a, No’man Dowid of the
Khawlan tribe. Hamid is the son of the former powerful Sheikh Abdullah
al-Ahmar, leader of Saleh’s Hashid tribe. Abdullah was central to Saleh’s rise
to power in 1978. With his backing, the allegiance of the Hashid remained
secure until Abdullah’s death in 2007. Earlier this month, one man was killed
and three injured in what No’man claimed was an attack against him by Hamid’s
gunmen. Hamid also accused No’man of sending gunmen to assassinate him and of
stealing his car.
Historically, most of Yemen’s tribes have fought for
whichever side has provided the greatest financial reward. Hamid is a prominent
international businessman and owner of the Yemeni mobile phone network,
Sabafon, as well as having interests in oil and the Bank of Saba. His wealth
has been exploited by the ruling GPC, who have produced propaganda leaflets
comparing Hamid’s lifestyle to that of Leila Ben Ali, the former Tunisian
president’s wife.
Outlook and Implications
There have been reports that the call from protesters in
Aden has changed from one for autonomy to demanding an end to the president’s
rule. Collaboration between the three groups of separatists, northern rebels,
and political activists would be the greatest threat to Saleh to date, and may
result in him relying heavily on the loyalty of the tribes to remain in power.
Major protests are planned across the country on 25 February, in addition to
the funerals of two men killed in the capital during clashes between loyalists
and activists on 23 February. The combination could ignite further violence,
despite Saleh’s pledge to “offer full protection for the demonstrators”. Much
will depend on the involvement of the tribes, and if Hamid al-Ahmar decides to
challenge the president by openly supporting for his resignation.
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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28/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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04/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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