The dismissal and replacement of the Jordanian government yesterday has increased pressure on King Abdullah and his political allies to deliver more far-reaching political and economic reforms in the hope of staving off further popular protest.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: King Abdullah dismissed Prime Minister
Samir Rifai yesterday after popular protests against a stagnant economy and
political process.
Implications: Rifai's replacement is Maaruf Bakhit, a
former army commander and prime minister between 2005 and 2007. His appointment
has not been welcomed by opposition groups in the country.
Outlook: King Abdullah has impressed on Bakhit the need
for "true political reforms", but given the lack of progress on these
issues during his last tenure in office, there are doubts that he can turn the
king's words into actions, raising the risk and potential for further
anti-government demonstrations.
King Abdullah of Jordan yesterday dismissed Prime
Minister Samir Rifai following protests in the country's capital, Amman. Rifai
has been replaced by the former prime minister and ex-army commander Maaruf
Bakhit, who previously held the office between 2005 and 2007. Surprising
changes of government are not in themselves unusual in Jordan. Samir Rifai was
appointed in December 2009 after King Abdullah unexpectedly dissolved
parliament and ruled by decree for 11 months until parliamentary elections were
held in November 2010. However, the effect of this latest move has been given
added potency given the tumultuous events in Tunisia and the ongoing political
crisis in Egypt. In this context, governmental instability in Jordan has
perhaps inevitably given rise to speculation that the wave of unrest sweeping
the Arab world will next impact Amman, despite Abdullah's attempts to reinforce
stability.
Bakhit Reappointed
Bakhit is in the process of assembling a new cabinet
that, in the words of a statement from King Abdullah yesterday, must "take
practical, quick and tangible steps to launch true political reforms, enhance
Jordan's democratic drive and ensure safe and decent living for all
Jordanians". Reform, the statement went on to say, was a "necessity
to provide a better life for our people, but we won't be able to attain that
without real political reforms, which must increase popular participation in
the decision-making".
Bakhit was first appointed prime minister in 2005 in the
wake of the terrorist attacks on two international hotels in central Amman,
claimed by the now deceased Iraq-based Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi. Bakhit was then seen as a prime minister more likely than his
predecessor, Adnan Badran, to balance the needs of reform with the desire for
increased security. Bakhit left office in 2007 after organising parliamentary
elections that were boycotted by the Islamic Action Front (IAF), Jordan's local
offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. That boycott and the results of the
election, which delivered a legislature that strengthened the position of
pro-government independents and tribal supporters, suggested strongly that
although Bakhit may have delivered stability, he was viewed as incapable of
delivering reform.
Indeed the same could be said of his successors, Nadir
al-Dahabi (2007-09) and Samir Rifai (2009-11), both technocrats from outside
parliament instructed by King Abdullah to deliver more meaningful political and
economic reform. The fact that all of these prime ministers have yet to make
good on Abdullah's promises has somewhat undermined the King's position—though
he and his family remain personally very popular—and has called into question
his commitment to the reforms he repeatedly claims he wants to deliver.
Opposition on the Streets
In the context of the political turmoil currently
sweeping the Arab world, Abdullah's failure to maintain a meaningful reform and
liberalisation programme has added potency. Moreover, with Jordan still
emerging from the global financial crisis, long-standing socio-economic
grievances have also come to the fore once more and brought the people back
onto the streets of Amman.
These grievances include a wide poverty gap, huge
variations in living standards, a rising youth population, many of whom are
finding it difficult to acquire employment, and a perception that that
government is not interested in resolving the problems. Underpinning these
issues is the fact that Jordan is a majority Palestinian-populated country
ruled by an East Bank elite, a fact consistently exploited by the IAF, which
draws most of its support from poor, urban Palestinians. It is these people who
have taken to the streets in recent days.
Nevertheless, the IAF remains a divisive force in Jordan
and its strength is frequently overestimated, perhaps a product of the fact
that there is no strong secular opposition to the government, as groups of this
type are co-opted by the palace. Indeed the IAF (itself divided into hardline
and moderate factions) continues to walk a domestic tightrope between
opposition and co-operation. For example, it has disavowed the replacement of
the King and swears loyalty to the monarchy, but at the same time is opposed to
the peace treaty with Israel and is uneasy at Abdullah's strongly pro-Western
foreign policy alignment. What this means is that, although the group
frequently projects itself as the voice of legitimate opposition in Jordan, its
message is sometimes misconstrued inside and outside of the country. This has
fed its critics' perception that it is, at best, an unreliable political
partner, or, at worst, a cover for introducing radical strands of Islam into
the country, both accusations denied by the IAF.
The protests and the dismissal of Rifai's government have
seen the IAF emphasise moderation. Refraining from criticising the king, they
nonetheless opposed Bakhit's reappointment. "He is not the right person to
run things at this current state and get Jordan out of crisis," said Zaki
Bani Rsheid, an IAF leader, following the announcements yesterday, adding:
"We need a man who is well respected by the people, a man who does not
have a history of corruption and oppression. How can he lead political
reform?".
Outlook and Implications
The problem facing Bakhit and King Abdullah remains that
both are unwilling to countenance the type of reforms demanded by the
opposition. For example, diluting the king's extensive patronage powers,
especially his power to select the prime minister (a key IAF demand reiterated
in the past few weeks), or opening up elections for free and fair competition,
do not currently appear to be on the government's agenda. What is clear is that
price control measures and salary increases for public workers are no longer
enough. Unless King Abdullah and his new prime minister quickly begin the
reform process demanded by many Jordanians, further demonstrations are likely,
and with the potential for escalation to a more serious political crisis.
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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28/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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04/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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