In the latest dramatic twist in Egypt’s protracted political drama, President Hosni Mubarak finally announced his resignation today and the transfer of power to the military.
Breaking News: After three decades in power, Hosni
Mubarak stepped down from the presidency today. Yesterday he had said in a
televised address that he would remain in power until September to oversee a
transition of power, triggering a day of mass protests across the country,
probably the biggest seen so far in the 18 days of unrest. The news of
Mubarak’s resignation was announced on state television by Vice-President Omar
Suleiman, who said: "Taking into consideration the difficult circumstances
the country is going through, President Mohammed Hosni Mubarak has decided to
leave the post of president of the republic and has tasked the Supreme Council
of the Armed Forces to manage the state's affairs." This leaves Egypt’s
immediate political future in the hands of the military. The military,
considered the backbone of the Egyptian political system, is now likely to come
under considerable pressure to implement protesters' demands for change,
including amending the Constitution, holding free and fair elections, and
introducing other democratic reforms. It is certainly possible, as with recent
events in Tunisia, that Egyptians will keep considerable pressure on the
government to put reforms in place and even possibly to dissolve the government
and parliament, and possibly disband the ruling National Democratic Party.
Below is the original article published earlier today.
Various statements from Egyptian officials snowballed
yesterday, leading to a widespread expectation that President Hosni Mubarak
would step down; his decision to remain in power has raised the prospects for
more intense protests, and the possibility of violence and further chaos on the
political scene.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: Mubarak defied Egyptian and international
expectations that he would step down and either hand over power to
Vice-President Omar Suleiman, or to the military—instead, Mubarak delegated
some powers to Suleiman and vowed to remain in power until September.
Implications: Mubarak’s move has not deflected calls for
his resignation; rather, his position has become entrenched, and so has that of
those who demand that he step down. After the speech, protesters in the
capital, Cairo, and elsewhere immediately vowed to sustain the pressure on the
president and the government, amid growing calls for Suleiman to also step
aside.
Outlook: The coming period will be critical in
determining whether the solution offered by Mubarak and the government will
ease tensions sufficiently to allow for a managed transition of power in
September. Considering the disconnection between Mubarak’s pledges and the
demand on the streets, this appears an unlikely scenario; meanwhile, all eyes
will be on the military as the only institutional force able to depose Mubarak.
After a 15-minute delay to the announced air-time,
Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak went on state TV last night to address the
Egyptian nation—and indeed, the observing world. His statement had been acutely
anticipated after statements from several high-standing Egyptian officials that
indicated Mubarak’s speech would be his last as president. The secretary
general of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), Hossan Badrawi, said to
the BBC that he hoped Mubarak would step down that same day. In another BBC interview,
Prime Minister Ahmad Shafiq said that Mubarak’s potential resignation was being
discussed. These statements contributed to raising expectations of the
president’s imminent resignation, causing thousands more to flock to Tahrir
Square in the capital, Cairo, where dedicated protesters have camped out for
days.
Ahead of Mubarak’s speech, television footage from the
square showed scenes of jubilation and a festival-like atmosphere as many
protesters expected Mubarak to step down. Their disappointment and anger once
the speech was aired was unequivocal. Mubarak’s message, that he was committed
to hearing and fulfilling protesters demands and that he was “determined to
live up to my promises with all firmness and honesty and … totally determined
to implement (them), without hesitation or reconsideration”, appeared lost on
those he was presumably attempting to placate.
In other parts of his speech, Mubarak admitted that all
governments made mistakes and vowed that there would be a day-to-day transition
of power leading up to September, when presidential elections are due to be
held. Critically, he also said he would hand over some powers to Vice-President
Omar Suleiman.
Crushed expectations quickly paved the way for fresh
resolve on the part of protesters to keep the pressure on the government and on
Mubarak, calling for millions to march across the country after Friday prayers.
Should protesters gather in considerable force, as observers widely expect them
to, there is a strong possibility of renewed violence and clashes between
security forces and protesters. Many protesters yesterday warned in comments to
international media outlets that Mubarak’s position would result in bloodshed.
In comments to CNN after the speech, opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei said
that he feared more violence and warned that "Egypt will explode. Army
must save the country now".
The Military's Dilemma
Mubarak’s message to Egyptians was clear, reflecting his
refusal to step down from power after three decades. What remains critically
unclear is the army’s position. The military has attempted to stay above the
fray as much as possible, seemingly remaining politically neutral.
Nevertheless, this position is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain, and
Mubarak’s unpopular decision not to step down has raised the pressure on the
military to take some form of action to bring the crisis to a managed end.
Yesterday, some observers began speculating about a possible coup as a result
of a communiqué issued by top generals which said that the military would “take
steps to protect the nation”, and that they would “support the legitimate
demands of the people”. The communiqué was issued after a rare meeting of the
Supreme Council for the Armed Forces which was overseen by Defence Minister
Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Lt
Gen. Sami Hafez Enan; the latter even said before protesters in Tahrir square
that their demands would soon be met. The military’s messages were evidently
incongruous with Mubarak’s.
This raises several possibilities, including that Mubarak
had in fact intended to step down but had a last-minute change of mind, and
that the military too was caught off guard. It is also possible that public
statements by the military and other officials were aimed to increase political
pressure on Mubarak to step down voluntarily. A further possibility is that the
military was supportive of Mubarak’s decision in an effort to buy more
time—potentially for a more directly managed outcome. Clearly, without access
to unavailable information regarding closed-door negotiations, it is impossible
to draw firm conclusions. Nevertheless, the fact remains: should the unrest
escalate beyond current levels and the pressure on the government increase
further, the military is the only institution able to manage the
situation—potentially through a coup. While this may seem a dramatic scenario,
it is worth highlighting that Egypt’s political system came into being through
the military coup of 1952. The system has never shed this mould, although it
has been led towards a more civilian guise under Mubarak’s rule.
The longer the situation drags on, the more precarious
the military’s position will become. Many analysts have highlighted the
possibility that the military will split. Others suggest that failing to “take
sides”, the military risks jeopardising the popularity it holds in the eyes of
many Egyptians. Media reports and protester allegations of the military’s use
of force and backing of Mubarak has already begun to erode its position to some
degree. The military’s every move will therefore be closely watched at home and
abroad. Importantly, Egypt’s state news agency MENA reported that the Supreme
Council for the Armed Forces was meeting again today, and would afterwards issue
an important statement. Once published, the statement did not clarify the
military’s position: it said that the military would support steps for a
transition of power, vowing to lift the state of emergency “as soon as current
circumstances end”. The statement also guaranteed that free presidential
elections would be held, and that constitutional changes would be made. Taken
together, this certainly suggests that the military, at least, is supportive of
Mubarak’s position during a transition period. It is likely that protesters
will react to the communiqué accordingly.
Outlook and Implications
In refusing to step down, Mubarak has entrenched his own
position—setting himself apart from the ousted Tunisian leader Zine al-Abidine
Ben Ali, who after several weeks of protests fled Tunisia on 14 January. But in
so doing, Mubarak has also further alienated many Egyptians and consolidated
the resolve of those who are openly protesting against his presidency.
Meanwhile, in seeking to appear neutral, and publicly backing a gradual
transition, the military risks compromising its reputation and potential
political role.
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23/09/2006| |
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30/08/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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21/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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