Severe police unrest in Ecuador did not spiral into a coup d'état, but one of the region's most unstable countries is heading for tumultuous times.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: Ecuador's left-wing president Rafael Correa
faces his worst governability crisis since he first took office in 2007, after
lower-rank police forces went on the rampage in response to a controversial
public-service bill they claim will cut bonuses and curtail promotions.
Implications: The loyalty of the armed forces and
international backing for the Correa administration has prevented a breakdown
of the constitutional order. However, the incident that President Correa claims
was an attempted military coup will accelerate the deterioration of the
economic and political environment, which has already been suffering under a
series of challenges from outside the legislative arena and a near political
deadlock within the National Assembly.
Outlook: Although police unrest is expected to come under
control over the short term, Ecuador is heading for tumultuous times, with an
increasing probability that President Correa might dissolve parliament and call
an early presidential election in an effort to overcome the current political
crisis.
Police Riots
One of Latin America's historically most unstable
countries was teetering yesterday on the brink of another breakdown of
constitutional order, after police riots sparked by the Quito police quickly
spread across the country. Mutinous police blocked roads in several provinces,
forcing, inter alia, the airport in Quito to temporarily shut down. The riots
were a response to a controversial public-service law, known as Losep, which police
officials say will cut seniority bonuses and slow promotions.
The protests took a dramatic turn when rioting police
assaulted President Rafael Correa at a Quito barrack, following an ill-fated
attempt by the president and his interior minister, Gustavo Jalkh, to placate
protesters. The president, who is still recovering from knee surgery,
subsequently sought refuge in a police hospital, where he remained for 11
hours. The stand-off ended after a loyal army unit and special police forced
their way into the hospital and freed the president, with shooting between
soldiers and police leading to two deaths and 37 injured. Rioting police forces
also yesterday also occupied the National Assembly, even though it remained
unclear whether they sought to gain control over the legislature.
International Backing
In a region that is still shivering from the 2009
military coup in Honduras, news of the police force rioting and marching on
Congress set alarm bells ringing. The Union of South American Nations
(UNASUR)—a fledgling co-operation body aimed at establishing itself as the
prime forum for regional conflict solution—swiftly called an emergency
presidential meeting. The gathering in Buenos Aires ended in a declaration
backing president Correa and denouncing the unrest as an "attempted
coup". The president also called on those involved in the incident to be
tried and convicted, and announced the dispatch of a mission of UNASUR foreign
ministers to the country later that day. The regional backing was flanked by a
statement from the U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who expressed
"full support for President Rafael Correa, and for the institutions of
democratic government" in Ecuador.
Outlook and Implication
President Correa was quick to pin the blame for the
uprising on sections of the police, armed forces, and parts of the opposition.
In particular, Correa alleged that Lucio Gutiérrez, a former soldier and former
president, was behind what he claims has been an attempted coup
d'état against his administration. Speaking from Brasilia yesterday,
Gutiérrez, whose presidential term ended in an impeachment amid popular unrest
in 2005, denied the accusations. President Correa has repeatedly accused
Gutiérrez of being implicated in different destabilization plots against him
.However, there is currently relatively little evidence to suggest that
yesterday's unrest was more than a severe outbreak of insubordination among
lower-rank police officers. In particular, the military high command—appointed
by Correa in April—quickly made clear that the armed forces were loyal to the
president, while Jaime Nebot, the opposition mayor of Guayaquil, also came out
strongly in support of democratic institutions.
The short-term focus for the government will now be on
restoring public order fully, after the refusal of front-line police forces to
do their work has created something of a public-security vacuum, with local
press reporting incidents of looting in both Quito and Guayaquil. Another
short-term priority will be on re-imposing discipline among the police forces.
Yesterday's early resignation of General Freddy Martinez, the commander of the
police forces, suggests that the police forces may be heading for a wider
leadership shakeup. Although President Correa yesterday vowed not to back down
over the provisions in Losep that sparked the conflict, there might, in
practice, be some scope for negotiations, in particular after General Ernesto
González, the chief of the military Joint Command, yesterday
"emphatically" requested the measure to be revised.
Yesterday's show of international and military
backing will bolster president Correa's position over the short term. Casting
the incident as an attempted opposition-led military coup might also help to
close ranks within Correa's Proud and Sovereign Fatherland Alliance, after a
lack of discipline within the group had contributed to his mounting problems in
keeping up with a demanding constitutionally mandated legislative agenda. But
beyond these short-term effects, the stage seems set for further deterioration
of the economic and political environment, sending a forceful remainder of the
traditionally high political instability in the Andean country. Groups opposed
to the president, including the powerful Confederation of Indigenous
Nationalities of Ecuador, which clashed with Correa earlier this year over a
controversial water bill, will attempt to focus the debate on what they see as
his responsibility for the police unrest. The likely scenario of increased polarization
and near-political deadlock in the legislature will in turn increase the
probability that President Correa will opt for dissolving parliament and call
an early election in an effort to overcome the current crisis .This would give
the president the power to pass emergency decrees until a new legislative
office has taken position, while the lack of a credible opposition contender
implies that Correa would be well positioned to win another popular mandate.
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20/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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04/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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