Militias loyal to Somalia's Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) reinforced the Somalian town of Abudwaaq on Nov. 27, a move meant to prevent Ethiopian forces facing severe flooding farther south from moving into central Somalia. Seasonal rains, expected to continue until mid-December, will delay a clash between Ethiopian and SICC forces.

Greater than normal seasonal rains, known as the Deyr, have made many roads almost impassable in parts of southern Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia. This situation is particularly acute in Ethiopia, which must maintain an overland supply route to its forces protecting Somalia's interim government in Baidoa. On the other side, the SICC faces the easier task of supplying its militias in areas of southern and central Somalia that are relatively unaffected by flooding. The first Somalian town north of the flood-affected areas, Abudwaaq has become a military focal point and potential battleground in the brewing conflict.

Facing the threat of a full Ethiopian invasion -- a threat that Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi alluded to Nov. 23 when he addressed his country's parliament, calling Somalia's Islamists a clear and present danger -- the SICC made the first move to Abudwaaq. The reinforcement of Abudwaaq also holds out the promise of creating stronger linkages between the SICC and ethnic Somalis in Ethiopia's Ogaden region, which lies just across the border from Abudwaaq. Gaining support among anti-Ethiopian insurgents in the Ogaden is a declared goal of the SICC in its efforts to create a Greater Somalia. However, this goal exacerbates Addis Ababa's dire fears over regime survival that have provoked its continued intervention in Somalia.

Although the severe Deyr rains mean that war is unlikely to occur before mid-December, Ethiopia is not likely to wait long after the rains end to attack the SICC. From Addis Ababa's perspective, the longer it waits to attack, the better prepared the SICC will be to fight.

The wait is on for the floodwaters to recede.