Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.

On Sunday, Jan. 9, Southern Sudan will hold a referendum vote on independence. It is widely expected that that region, currently an autonomous region of Sudan, will vote in favor of declaring itself to be independent.

First what will happen is the referendum vote on Jan. 9 but technically even if that vote goes in favor of declaring independence, legally Southern Sudan cannot make that declaration of independence until July. This is a legality enshrined in a peace agreement that was negotiated as far back as 2005, and so what will happen in between the Jan. 9 vote and July is a long-standing period of protracted, intense negotiations over what the actual relations and means of cooperation will be between that new state of Southern Sudan and the rest of Sudan. The big topic, the big concern is whether this referendum vote and possible declaration of independence will lead to a return of civil war between the north and south in Sudan. But at STRATFOR we don’t expect to see a return to civil war. There is one issue that forces the two parts of that country to cooperate and that is crude oil, and the crude oil found largely on that internal border between north and south.

Now Sudan is not a major oil-producing state — Sudan’s output is about 500,000 barrels per day. The oil found in Sudan is the main resource that both governments there rely on. For Juba in Southern Sudan, the revenues they receive from oil production contribute probably about 95 percent of its budget. For Sudan similarly oil is the main part of its domestic economy. It still has a small manufacturing base, and a small but still significant agriculture sector in Sudan but the main international commodity that Sudan brings to bear is that crude oil. Even though the majority of crude oil fields are in southern Sudanese territory, the only way to export that is through northern Sudanese territory. And this brings us back to why these two actors and territories must cooperate, they are mutually dependent on each other for their economic well-being.