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20/06/2006 | NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test

Stratfor Staff

There was heightened speculation over the weekend about an impending North Korean missile launch. According to Japanese, South Korean and U.S. reports -- all citing various Japanese, South Korean and U.S. officials (most of them unnamed) -- North Korea has moved its Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile onto the gantry at the Musudan-ri launch facility and fueled the missile.

 

If these reports are accurate, Pyongyang either must launch the missile within a few days or else de-fuel. Further, with the onset of the Korean monsoon season just days away, there is a narrow launch window before inclement weather sets in.

One of the first comments about the potential launch that has been bantered around is that this would seriously disrupt the six-party nuclear talks. From North Korea's perspective, though, the talks have pretty much run their course -- and disrupting a round of talks that is already stalled would not seem to cost Pyongyang a great deal. It should be remembered that Pyongyang planned the current nuclear crisis years before actually triggering it in October 2002. However, the planning took the likely U.S. response into account from a pre-9/11 perspective, and North Korea failed to alter its strategy in light of the strikes against Washington, D.C. and New York.

While the six-party talks were a good second option, they have gained for Pyongyang neither a concrete security guarantee from the United States nor a replacement of the 1953 Armistice with a formal peace accord. And while North Korea is unlikely to move any closer to these two goals with a testing of the Taepodong-2 (even if it is in the form of a satellite launch, as Pyongyang attempted with the Taepodong-1 in 1998), it still sees some potential benefits from the test.

With Washington already pursuing economic levers against the North and essentially giving up on the six-party talks, Pyongyang hopes to reignite the rifts between Washington and Seoul over North Korean policy. The troubles in the South Korean political system make this even more timely for Pyongyang: President Roh Moo Hyun's Uri Party has experienced loss after loss, and its likely successor -- the Grand National Party -- will usher in a more stringent North Korean policy, with closer coordination with Washington. Thus, there is now a window of opportunity for Pyongyang with Seoul as well, since Roh will strive ever harder to justify his more conciliatory approach to North Korea. This will give Pyongyang cards it can play in South Korean politics, like concessions to Roh on economic or cultural exchanges -- or even another inter-Korean summit.

From North Korea's perspective, another missile launch may not be a bad tactic. Washington and Tokyo are both suggesting they will issue strongly worded statements, enact further economic restrictions against the North (not that there is much more they can cut off) and maybe even take Pyongyang before the U.N. Security Council, where North Korean allies Russia and China sit waiting with a veto. In fact, if history is a guide, North Korea -- rather than being ostracized by the 1998 launch over Japan -- found itself just a few years later normalizing relations with Italy, Australia, the Philippines, Britain, Belgium, The Netherlands, Canada, Spain, Germany, New Zealand and Luxembourg. And in the midst of this diplomatic offensive, Pyongyang hosted the South Korean president in the first inter-Korean summit.

There is, however, another angle to the current posturing. China has been conspicuously quiet about all the hype of an imminent North Korean missile test. Beijing is facing some significant economic, social and political crises internally and is, at the same time, watching Washington increasing its economic criticisms of China and re-raising the "China threat" in various defense documents. China's period of relatively unfettered domestic and international interactions in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks is nearing an end, and Chinese officials, particularly those in the military, see a clear renewal of U.S. attention and pressure on the Chinese military.

Beijing's silence as its neighbor is posing for satellite flybys suggests a certain sense of complicity on China's part. North Korea remains a valuable asset for China in its dealings with the United States: So long as Washington is unwilling to strike militarily at North Korea, Beijing remains the central point of contact with the North Koreans and wields the most influence in Pyongyang. A North Korean missile test, or even a stand-down from a near-test, would give Beijing additional cards to play in Washington. After all, North Korea still represents the culmination of many of Washington's strategic fears -- a "rogue" regime, nuclear-armed, wielding long-range ballistic missiles, in an area of the world where conflict, once begun, could spread extremely rapidly.

Beijing can subtly remind Washington that, should the United States wish to refrain from bringing too much pressure to bear on China, it in turn can "reason" with the North Koreans. But if Washington keeps the pressure up, the message would go, there is no telling what those crazy North Koreans are capable of.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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