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21/11/2007 | The Indonesian-Australian Security Pact - A Boon for Canberra

Stratfor Staff

The Indonesian parliament almost unanimously passed the Indonesian-Australian security pact Nov. 14. Although the deal has yet to receive approval from Canberra, its passage is practically guaranteed. An intact Indonesia is central to Australia's fundamental security and would deprive Canberra's potential enemies of the chance to foment unrest in its backyard.

 

The Indonesian parliament on Nov. 14 ratified the Lombok Treaty, an Indonesian-Australian security pact that originally was signed by foreign ministers from both countries in late 2006. In essence, the pact formalizes each party's commitment to safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the other should any internal or external threat arise.

At first glance, Jakarta seems the clear winner in this deal. Sydney's ability to protect Jakarta's sovereignty and contain any possible insurgencies far outweighs anything Jakarta can offer in return. However, from a geopolitical perspective, the benefits to Canberra's core security are more important than anything it is giving up.

Hegemonic ambitions do not drive Australia's fundamental geopolitical strategy. Rather, its aim is to protect its geographic insulation by extending its influence to the states scattered along its periphery -- i.e., Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and the Solomon Islands -- by using a mix of money and peacekeeping troops to ensure that
Pacific instability never bubbles over in its backyard.

Of these peripheral states, Indonesia is a priority.

If Indonesia had half a chance of becoming the next emerging regional power, Australia obviously would be more cautious in extending any form of assistance that does not translate into greater dependence on Canberra. But Indonesia is inherently weak. A mishmash of religious, ethnic and national loyalties, the country is constantly at risk of breaking apart along its many fault lines. Impotent governance and internal strife typify Indonesian politics; this combination toppled former dictator Suharto in 1998 and continues to plague President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Australia needs to keep Indonesia in one piece so that other international powers (i.e. China) cannot cut deals with potential Indonesian successor states, and so that militant entities (such as al Qaeda) cannot infiltrate factions within Indonesian society.

So what is in the deal for Jakarta? The security treaty provides for cooperation on counterterrorism, maritime security, emergency aid, energy, intelligence, defense, law enforcement and aviation safety. Although Australian politicians continue to bicker about whether the deal signifies a general security agreement or a military pact (due to the negative political connotations of being linked to an Indonesian regime that cares little for human rights, especially during a general election season), this debate is merely semantics.

Australia wants to facilitate a stronger Indonesian regime -- one that is capable of strong governance and can deal with issues ranging from piracy to natural disaster responses. Indonesia's military hardware is largely a hodgepodge of secondhand equipment from a variety of sources, so Australian military sales are a potential deal-sweetener, especially since most Australian equipment is American-made. Australia is loath to sell offensive systems to its closest neighbor, but increasing Jakarta's military reliance on Canberra would reduce the risk of outside powers inserting their military influence in the South Pacific sphere. The recent billion-dollar deals that Indonesia signed with Russia for, among other things, Su-30MKI fighters and Kilo-class patrol submarines, are a clear reminder to Australia that strengthening defensive ties with Indonesia is extremely necessary.

Aside from military security cooperation, the deal also holds economic benefits for Jakarta. Australian and international shipping lanes weave in and out of the 17,500 islands that make up Indonesia, making the country vulnerable to piracy and interdiction even when it is unified. Additionally, work already has begun on a potential free trade agreement, under which Australia is hoping to gain greater access to Indonesia's raw materials and Jakarta is hoping for more Australian foreign investment capital. Even joint civilian nuclear research and Australian uranium sales have been touted as possibilities.

As the details of the new trilateral
Japanese-Australian-U.S. security arrangement continue to emerge, the need for Canberra to maintain calm in its immediate periphery and to keep tabs on the largest players there is increasing. By ratifying this pact, Jakarta has made this goal significantly more achievable -- although, as defense acquisitions from Moscow demonstrate, complete Indonesian acquiescence to Australia's desires is unlikely. The security treaty is merely a product of Jakarta and Canberra's evolving bilateral relationship, not the other way around.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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