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18/04/2006 | PNA: Hamas' Message in the Tel Aviv Attack

Stratfor Staff

A joint suicide bombing attack carried out by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade on April 17 left at least nine people dead and more than 50 wounded in Tel Aviv, Israel. Under intense financial and diplomatic pressure, Hamas is playing with fire in its attempt to prevent a government collapse.

 

A 16-year-old suicide bomber detonated near an old central bus station in south Tel Aviv, Israel, on April 17, killing at least nine people and wounding at least 50. The attack occurred in the afternoon at a peak holiday travel time during Passover. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade chose the open-area Falafel Rosh Ha'ir restaurant -- which was hit by a bomber Jan. 19 -- as the target of the attack. Having already conducted the preoperational surveillance on the target site, PIJ likely already had the assets in place to allow the bomber access to the restaurant.

The April 17 attack was possibly the successful execution of a foiled suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. Israeli police said that on March 21, after a high-speed chase near Tel Aviv, Jerusalem police stopped a van carrying 10 Palestinians and uncovered more than 10 pounds of explosives. A Jerusalem police spokesman at that time said the occupants intended to conduct a suicide bombing attack in central Israel.

With Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers and jeeps already rolling into Nablus to carry out arrests after the most recent attack, the security situation in the West Bank will deteriorate significantly as clashes ensue between Palestinians and the IDF.

It is unlikely that Hamas sanctioned or directed the April 17 attack as it did previous PIJ-staged suicide bombings. However, Hamas had to know an operation was in the works, as frustration in response to continued Israeli airstrikes and raids has provoked PIJ and al-Aqsa to openly warn Israel of impending retaliatory attacks. PIJ and al-Aqsa both had clear incentives to stage the attack: Unlike Hamas, the smaller and less organized PIJ has been targeted repeatedly in Israeli airstrikes, and al-Aqsa -- the militant offshoot of Fatah -- has no problem with undermining Hamas' authority now that Fatah has been sidelined. That Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal was with PIJ Chief Abdullah Ramadan Shallah in Tehran on April 14 for the International Conference on Quds and Support for the Palestinian People only contributes to suspicions that Hamas was aware of the attack.

Hamas was faced with little choice but to turn a blind eye to the operation, allowing the attack to occur, in hopes of hitting home the message that any further attempts to topple the Hamas-led government -- after Israel cut off funding for the Hamas-led government and launched a series of strikes against militants -- will only result in a bigger security dilemma for Israel and provide an opening for al Qaeda to make its foray into the Palestinian territories.

Hamas is making the argument that its hands have been tied by all sides: Palestinian National Authority (PNA) President Mahmoud Abbas, who usurped control over the security forces; Israel, which kept the Gaza-based leadership from meeting with Hamas political officials in the West Bank; and the international community, which cut off aid to the PNA and, according to Hamas, is making the Palestinian people suffer for the results of a democratic election. Whether this argument is resonating in Israeli and American political circles, however, is doubtful, as Hamas has resisted assuming a real change in its position toward Israel.

While Hamas has the option of falling back on its militant title in the event of a government collapse, the Hamas leadership knows that such an outcome would end up hurting the group more as Israel moves forward in consolidating its borders unilaterally while Palestinian infighting intensifies and jihadist groups seize the opportunity to infiltrate the territories.

Strapped for cash and with its powers severely circumscribed, Hamas has been desperate to thwart attempts to jeopardize its electoral gains. Hamas leaders have carefully moved toward softening their stance against Israel through a series of hints at recognizing the Jewish state and negotiating a two-state solution, followed by denials of any such intentions. Hamas also held talks with 12 rival Palestinian factions April 16 in an attempt to pursue its original plan of forming a "national unity" government and expanding the Cabinet to include Fatah members.

Hamas' efforts to reshape the PNA it inherited in March, however, will take time. Meanwhile, Hamas can use the April 17 bombing -- the first suicide attack since Hamas took office -- to show the result of undermining Hamas' governmental authority.

To make sure Israel and the United States understand its message, Hamas will bolster its claims that a collapse of the government will only pave the way for al Qaeda-affiliated militants to take root in the territories. Yunus al-Astal, a leading Hamas member and Palestinian Legislative Council member, said in an interview published April 14 in the official PNA daily newspaper Al Hayat Al Jadidah that "Zarqawis would be the alternative" were a Hamas-led government to collapse, and that Israel can "wait for Islamic extremism that only believes in martyrdom operations and car bombs." Al Qaeda affiliates have long eyed the territories as a staging ground for operations against Israel, but Hamas repeatedly turned them away in the interest of keeping its conflict against Israel contained. As the security situation in the territories declines, however, Hamas' ability to ensure that its resistance campaign against Israel is not hijacked by jihadist forces will come under serious pressure and prompt greater U.S. involvement in managing the crisis.

The biggest cost for Hamas in pursuing this strategy is that its main bargaining chip -- the ability to rein in militants and suspend attacks under an informal cease-fire -- has been significantly damaged by the April 17 attack. However, in its desperation, Hamas has shown that it will go to great lengths to show the United States and Israel that dealing with a Hamas-led PNA government is more desirable than dealing with the al Qaeda menace spreading to new turf.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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