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18/04/2006 | Russia: The Centralization Trend Continues

Stratfor Staff

Two more of Russia's administrative entities -- the Irkutsk region and the Ust-Ordynskiy Buryat Autonomous District -- overwhelmingly voted to unite in an April 16 referendum. This is yet another step in Russian President Vladimir Putin's policy of centralizing power over Russia's regions, but demographics and ethnic self-determination concerns also play a part in the merger.

 

Residents of Russia's Irkutsk region and the Ust-Ordynskiy Buryat autonomous district overwhelmingly voted to unify the two regions in a referendum held April 16. With nearly 100 percent of the votes counted, 89.76 percent of Irkutsk region residents and 97.79 percent of their neighbors voted for the merger, with voter turnouts of 68.85 and 99.45 percent respectively.

The merger looks quite logical geographically, since the Ust-Ordynskiy Buryat district is entirely enclosed within Irkutsk. However, the pattern in Russia has more to do with consolidating larger entities centering on the largest city in a region with autonomous districts named for the ethnic group that resides in the area but may or may not be the majority of the population. This denotes a degree of disenfranchisement for the ethnic minority group -- although, at least according to the referendum's language, the Ust-Ordynskiy Buryat district will become an administrative-territorial part of Irkutsk with a special status. That was also the case in the 2005 merger of the Koryakskiy autonomous area and the Far East Kamchatka region, and in the 2003 union of the Komi-Permyak autonomous district with the Ural Mountains Perm region.

Not every region is so eager to merge. The people of Adygeya have resisted merging with the Krasnodar Krai, which encircles the tiny republic. The nationalist sentiment in Adygeya, combined with Caucasian flair and stubbornness, precludes any attempt to absorb the Adyg people and deprive them of their homeland.

The trend since Russian President Vladimir Putin's election has been toward centralization of control over Russia's regions. During the beginning of his first term in 2000, Putin adopted a package of decrees which included dividing the country into seven "superdistricts" with a Kremlin-appointed representative for each, as well as appointing regional governors rather than electing them directly. It could be said that this was all done to ease the administration of Russia's far-flung territories, but Putin's agenda tends toward reining in autonomous regions should they ever want to exhibit regionalist or even separatist tendencies.

There is also the question of exerting control over regional natural resources. In the case of the Irkutsk merger, the area is home to an oil pipeline and a proposed pipeline to take natural gas around Lake Baikal, a project whose possible environmental impact has caused concern. While autonomous districts may lay claim to operations and profits of the energy projects, they can be more easily controlled under the auspices of a larger regional body without ethnic interests of its own.

The merger process likely will be repeated in May, when the Evenk and Taymyr (Dolgan-Nenets) autonomous districts will vote on whether to join the Krasnoyarsk region, which already administers much of their affairs. This merger is likely to happen, since it was endorsed by a national plebiscite in 2005. That region contains large oil and natural gas deposits, which Moscow would certainly like to see more under its control.

More ethnic regions could merge with Russian-dominated ones, especially the sparsely populated districts in the north and center of Russia -- such as the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamal-Nenets autonomous districts -- which contain much of the country's natural resources as well. Especially prone are the ethnic autonomous districts, where native groups seek to exercise control over exploration and production, which affects the land the ethnic groups consider sacred or merely their own. Moscow wants to dilute the native groups' power by uniting the ethnic autonomous districts with less-regionalist entities.

The instituted and proposed mergers all reinforce Putin's agenda: Consolidate power and attempt to halt regionalist tendencies while keeping a tight grip on Russia's energy resources.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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