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04/04/2007 | Pakistan, India and the Annual SAARC Talkfest

Stratfor Staff

The 14th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit kicks off in New Delhi on April 3. Though the summit is bound to be another stagnant affair, newcomers to the organization, including Afghanistan, China and Iran, will add some spice to the India-Pakistan rivalry.

 

India will chair the 14th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in New Delhi on April 3-4, where leaders from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Maldives will participate. Officials from the European Union, the United States, China, Japan and South Korea also will attend the summit as observers.

The eight-member organization was designed for South Asian nations to forge a regional consensus on various issues and establish an economic union with zero tariffs and a single currency by the year 2020 -- lofty goals for a region of highly protectionist economies with widespread security problems. Instead, the forum continues to exist as a venue where much is said, little ever gets done -- and everything is driven by the India-Pakistan rivalry.

In obvious power plays, India and Pakistan prepared for the event by staging a series of missile tests over the past month, including the Indian Dhanush and Pakistani Hatf II Abdali nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.

Pakistan has been unnerved by India's rapid economic growth and warming relationship with the United States and has made it clear to New Delhi that it will remain the primary blocker to India's regional aspirations. Islamabad's concerns are further heightened by India's aggressive campaign to bring Afghanistan into SAARC this year, which was likely influenced by Pakistan's push to grant China observer status in 2006 to balance against Indian interests. Though India is keen on fortifying its relationship with Kabul to gain a stronger foothold in energy-rich Central Asia, Pakistan relies heavily on its Pashtun ties and its geographic position to keep Afghanistan out of Indian hands for fear of being sandwiched between two hostile states. To ensure Afghanistan remains in Pakistan's sphere of influence, the Pakistani government has continually denied India transit rights that would allow India to ship goods to Afghanistan. Pakistan also is expected to stymie any progress on free trade talks during the summit by refusing to grant India trade concessions or most-favored nation status. Thus far, India's efforts in cozying up to Kabul have been restricted to small-scale humanitarian and reconstruction efforts.

But India has watched closely as Pakistan's ties to the Taliban insurgency have led to the steady deterioration of relations between Islamabad and the Afghan government led by Hamid Karzai, who has openly accused Pakistan of being the primary instigator behind Taliban attacks against his country. Karzai made his displeasure with Pakistan clear ahead of the summit when he criticized Pakistan for acting as a wall between India and Central Asia and accused Islamabad of making Afghanistan into a Pakistan colony.

Iran's eagerness to join SAARC adds an interesting twist to this dynamic. SAARC leaders are expected to formally grant Iran observer status during this year's summit. Though Iran and Pakistan share cordial relations, Iran's Shiite identity and historical ties to India present another potential threat to Pakistani influence in the regional forum. Moreover, Iran's economic expansion into South Asia will only be possible if Pakistan eases up on transit rights in Central Asia, making it all the more difficult for Pakistan to block India's land access to the West.

During this year's SAARC summit, statements will be made about creating a common front to fight terrorism, without acknowledging the simple fact that much of the militancy is fueled by the security interests of the region's leading state actors. For example, Pakistan maintains close ties to a range of militants, including Kashmiri separatists, northeastern separatists, Bangladeshi Islamists and Maoist rebels in India, to keep New Delhi preoccupied. At the same time, India plays a role in supporting Pakistan's raging Balochi insurgency to add to Pakistan's list of security threats.

In the end, the forum is held hostage to the India-Pakistan rivalry, where both sides battle to shape regional alliances at each other's expense. It is for this reason that any major economic project, such as the Iran-Pakistan-India natural gas pipeline, can be discussed for more than a decade without any real action taking place. India is not about to put its trust in Pakistan to run a major source of its energy supply through hostile territory, but it can use projects like this as a political tool against the United States when the need arises. As SAARC exemplifies each year, security interests continue to prevail in South Asia.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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