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13/07/2011 | Dispatch: Assassination and Post-NATO Afghanistan

Stratfor Staff

Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.

 

Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s younger half-brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, and a key lieutenant of the Afghan leader, was killed in Kandahar at his residence July 12. There are all sorts of reports as to the circumstances in which Ahmed Wali Karzai was assassinated. The Taliban movement has claimed responsibility for the killing, while Afghan officials maintain that the assassin was a member of the deceased Karzai’s entourage. But the more important question is what does this killing tell us about the status of the Afghan regime, especially as U.S. and NATO forces begin a very steep drawdown over the next few years?

Ahmed Wali Karzai’s killing comes at a very difficult time for President Hamid Karzai because he is at a stage where his regime is adjusting to a new emerging reality, one in which U.S. and NATO forces will be drawing down until a 2014 deadline is met, when most U.S. and NATO forces will be out of the country. The issue for Karzai is that he must hold his own in terms of the stability of his regime and then, at the same time, deal with the Taliban in the form of a political settlement from a position of relative strength. The loss of his younger brother and key lieutenant makes that job very difficult because it has shaken the essential pillar of support that Karzai sought from his own ethnic community, the Pashtuns, especially in the heartland of the Taliban, which is Kandahar province.

The Karzai regime has never been considered as anything remotely stable. It has always been seen as an unstable entity propped up a by Western support, but in recent years President Hamid Karzai had developed his own support base within the country, and he was using that support base, especially amongst the Pashtuns who are the target of the Taliban. And this is the basis upon which president Karzai was going to move forward so that in the event of a U.S. and NATO withdrawal, the country does not descend into civil war or worse, a complete anarchy because his regime would not be able to withstand the onslaught of the insurgency.

For Washington and the other NATO countries, it is essential that the Karzai regime be able to sustain itself and stand on its own so that it can serve as an arrester in the path of the Taliban,who are seeing a resurgence. More recently, what has happened is that there has been an expectation that while the Taliban resurgence cannot be stemmed, it can be contained to a certain degree and the assumption was that the Karzai regime, and its security forces and its set of alliances throughout the country will allow the Karzai regime to have a fighting chance against a resurgent Taliban. And with President Karzai losing a key pillar of support in the South, in the form of his half-brother, the question is: can the Karzai regime continue to remain on that course?

The untimely death of Ahmed Wali Karzai creates a situation where it is very likely to become very difficult for President Karzai and his regime to be able to maintain stability in the South once U.S. and NATO forces begin the draw down.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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