The killing is an example of the anticipated violence Colombia will continue to experience ahead of its May 28 presidential election. The killing also constitutes a serious blow to President Alvaro Uribe Velez's efforts to end 40 years of violence in Colombia. Uribe has recently come under intense political pressure over a former Colombian secret service employee's allegations about the planning of certain operations. Nevertheless, he will probably win re-election with relative ease, even as attacks increase.

Liliana Gaviria, the sister of Liberal Party Chairman and former Colombian President Cesar Gaviria, was killed the night of April 27 during a kidnapping attempt. The killing constitutes another episode of the violence Colombia will continue to experience before its May 28 presidential election.

The killing of the sister of one of the most prominent members of the Colombian opposition will cloud the political climate and create instability and fear -- the guerrilla Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia's (FARC) precise goal. Given that the victim was a relative of the opposition rather than a relative of a member of President Alvaro Uribe Velez's government means the killing might not spur Colombians to rally around the president. But even though Uribe has come under increasing pressure in recent weeks over leaks about some of his administration's actions, he is still highly likely to win re-election.

Liliana Gaviria was killed during a kidnapping attempt as she neared her home in the city of Pereira, west of Bogota. A policeman trying to thwart the kidnapping was also killed. So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the crime, though the FARC, paramilitaries and criminal gangs are all suspects. Uribe vowed to find those responsible, and offered a reward for information. Though the attack has not been attributed to the FARC, it falls into an anticipated pattern of increased violence against civilians in the run-up to the election.

Even though such violence was predicted, this crime represents a particular blow to Uribe's efforts to stabilize the country and to win re-election. If the FARC turns out to be responsible, it would represent an effort by Colombia's largest guerrilla group to show it is still strong despite the government's efforts. As a part of FARC's effort to communicate this message, on April 20 the group ambushed and killed five soldiers and seven members of Colombia's secret intelligence service (DAS), in the province of Norte de Santander, close to the Venezuelan border. If, however, paramilitaries carried out the attack, it would signal that the Uribe's efforts to demobilize the paramilitaries -- one of the president's main points during the campaign -- has not worked out that well. Finally, if an apolitical criminal gang dedicated to kidnapping carried out the killing, another of Uribe's selling points for re-election would be undermined -- namely, the reduction of crime in Colombia's cities. Bogota reported April 12 that the number of kidnappings during the first third of 2006 had fallen to half the number registered for the same period in 2005 (126 versus 252; the FARC were responsible for half of them). Even when the murder rate favors Uribe, a single high-profile case can counteract this improvement in public opinion.

This is not the only problem Uribe has been facing. Over the past three weeks, Rafael Garcia, a former DAS member, has accused a former DAS director under Uribe of various infractions, including plotting to kill Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, helping fix the 2002 elections in Uribe's favor, and conspiring with the paramilitary umbrella group United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia. Garcia, who was fired from DAS in 2005, is being prosecuted for collaborating with paramilitary groups and drug traffickers by leaking information when he was in charge of information technology at DAS.

Despite Garcia's legal woes, Colombian Attorney General Mario Iguaran Arana said April 17 that he will start an investigation into the bribery allegations brought against Uribe's administration by Garcia. Uribe has flatly denied all of the charges, and has picked a fight against some media outlets for giving voice to what he calls false allegations. The brouhaha has negatively impacted Uribe's popularity. The most recent opinion poll, released hours before Gaviria's death, gave Uribe 56 percent of the vote, still enough to win without a runoff, but nearly 10 points less than his share of the vote projected in March. Nevertheless, Uribe is still poised to win, given that none of his opponents has even reached the 20 percent level.

Though violence against Colombia's population, leaders and security forces was expected and will continue, Liliana Gaviria's death is especially damaging to Uribe's standing. Even so, because of the lack of credible opponents, Uribe is still the favorite to win re-election in the first round of voting May 28.