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17/03/2009 | El Salvador - Presidential Elections and a Change in Politics

Stratfor Staff

A presidential win for the leftist Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) party marks a major shift in El Salvador’s politics, as the former militant organization rises to the country’s highest position of power.

 

With the regional security climate deteriorating and the global economic crisis ramping up, Salvadoran President-elect Mauricio Funes faces a number of challenges.

Mauricio Funes of the Salvadoran leftist Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) party swept the March 15 Salvadoran presidential election, winning more than 50 percent of the vote. The win was made official by the concession of opposing candidate Rodrigo Avila, marking a significant shift in the politics of the Central American country. The road will not be an easy one for Funes, as he faces a potentially difficult political climate at home, while the rising influence of Mexican drug cartels in Central America challenges El Salvador’s security, and the global economic crisis rattles the country’s economy.

The brutal Cold War-era civil war that left more than 70,000 people dead between 1980 and 1992 left El Salvador with a highly polarized political climate. The two main parties left over from the civil war were the FMLN and the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA), and the rivalry between the two has been intense. The FMLN was founded in 1980 when five militant organizations, created in the early 1970s in response to persistent military rule, unified against the government with heavy support from then-Cuban President Fidel Castro and close ties to the Marxist Sandinista party. The U.S. government similarly supported ARENA and the Salvadoran government during the war.

The FMLN entered politics as a legitimate party after the civil war ended in 1992 with the signing of the U.N.-negotiated Chapultepec Peace Accords. The FMLN remained in the background, however, as internal disagreements over the direction of the party and a controlling legislative coalition led by ARENA prevented the minority party from attaining much control in the legislature.

To a certain extent, the conditions that prevented the FMLN from making much progress in the legislature still exist. Although the FMLN has the largest representation (35 out of 84 seats) in the legislature, a coalition of ARENA and any of the smaller parties, such as the Partido de Conciliacion Nacional, could block FMLN initiatives. Given that a two-thirds vote is required to pass any major initiative — like the government’s budget — the fractured legislature could prove very challenging for Funes.

However, rising dissatisfaction with the ARENA party, which has held the presidency since the end of the civil war, has made clear that the country is ready for a change in leadership. The fact that the FMLN has moderated since its militant days appears to have aided its rise to power. Despite accusations by his erstwhile opponent, ARENA candidate Rodrigo Avila, that Funes would lead the country with a strong affinity for Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his Bolivarian Revolution, Funes appears to be a relatively moderate candidate. With a background in broadcast journalism, Funes represents the first FMLN presidential candidate to have no militant-related combat background. Additionally, his campaign promises have emphasized moderation, and he has pledged to strengthen ties to the United States while dismissing the possibility of heavy ties to Venezuela.

Time will tell if Funes can (or intends to) remain true to these campaign promises, however, as it is certainly true that elements of his own party — including Vice President-elect Salvador Sanchez — are heavily influenced by their militant backgrounds. But the possibility of alliances with Chavez has faded in the wake of the fall of oil prices; not only do countries like El Salvador have a decreased need for the oil subsidies Chavez has offered in the past (and less willingness to sacrifice political autonomy for aid), but most importantly, Venezuela can no longer afford to splash cash around the region, and must focus on its own internal affairs. That said, the FMLN’s close ties to the Nicaraguan Sandinista party during the Salvadoran civil war make Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, who served his first term as president from 1985 to 1990, a natural ally.

There is no question that Funes will face major challenges, as recent events have put the country’s security and economic situations at high risk. The rise of land-based drug trafficking routes through Central America has increased the presence of Mexican drug cartels, and the international economic crisis has forced a deterioration of the country’s economic outlook.

There has been a sharp increase in Central America of international drug trafficking busts linked to Mexican drug cartels over the past year. The cartels are increasingly relying on land-based routes to transport cocaine from South America to the U.S. market because of increased surveillance of air and sea routes through the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean. Despite the uptick throughout the region, there have been few reports of drug busts in El Salvador, a circumstance that can likely be attributed to El Salvador’s strained security apparatus. The ongoing battle against transnational gangs such as Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13, which originated in the United States but maintains strong influence in Central American countries (particularly Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador), also exacerbates the security challenge facing the Salvadoran state.

El Salvador straddles the Pan American Highway, an important transportation route through Central America, making it highly likely that the country serves as a critical drug transshipment point. At the same time, El Salvador has very few resources at its disposal to combat rising cartel influence. The potential threat posed by the cartels is difficult to overstate. Mexican organized criminal group Los Zetas is thought to have directly threatened the life of Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom, and has reportedly been able to install listening devices into Colom’s office and personal quarters, emphasizing both the reach and power of the Mexican organizations. For Funes, the rising influence of the cartels is a serious consideration as he mulls his policy options, which will include deciding whether or not to participate in the U.S.-funded Merida Initiative, a plan that allocates about $1.4 billion to combat drug trafficking in Mexico and Central America.

At the same time Mexican cartel influence is rising throughout El Salvador, the country’s economy is shuddering. Although a fall in commodity prices has eased inflationary price pressure on Salvadorans, the general deterioration of the global economic climate has dire implications for El Salvador’s largely services-based economy. Furthermore, El Salvador is highly reliant on remittances, which make up about 18 percent of El Salvador’s gross domestic product. As the economic situation in the United States deteriorates and the unemployment rate rises, immigrants are hit hard, and their ability to send remittances home is curtailed. Though it is difficult to say at this juncture how remittances from the United States will suffer in this emerging trend, data published by the Salvadoran central bank show a slowdown in remittances at the end of 2008.

With the enormous pile of domestic issues confronting him, is clear is that Funes will be a very busy president. And with a full agenda coupled with a moderate outlook, he likely will remain focused on domestic issues when he takes office in June.

 

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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