Since the March 26 parliamentary elections, the factions have been continuously negotiating with each other, and this is just another manifestation of ongoing talks. The final coalition agreements will not be signed until at least the convening of the parliament May 10, and even then that might not be the end of the story.

On April 6, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine Party, which finished third in the March 26 parliamentary elections, released a document calling for the reincarnation of the Orange coalition, with the participation of Yulia Timoshenko's eponymous bloc and the Socialist Party headed by Oleksandr Moroz. The coalition would hold approximately 54 percent, or 243 of the 450 seats, in parliament. At the party's committee meeting where the agreement was finalized, the suggestion of an "open" coalition with the participation of top vote-getter Viktor Yanukovich and his pro-Russian Party of Regions was declined.

However, a major obstacle remains: The memorandum did not enumerate the candidates for Cabinet posts, including the position of the prime minister. Second-place finisher Timoshenko has repeatedly said she will not agree to anyone other than herself in the prime minister's chair. Moroz also criticized the document, claiming it contradicts a memorandum of cooperation that his party released in late March.

The Party of Regions garnered the most votes, but with just over 32 percent it still needs to form a coalition in order to govern. However, Timoshenko has said unequivocally that she will not join Yanukovich, and Yanukovich's negotiations with Yushchenko had not progressed.

Although the latest coalition proposal is the first time Yushchenko's camp has made such weighty pronouncements, the government formation process is far from over. No final coalition document can be signed until Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, is sworn in during its first session on May 10. Under the recently amended Ukrainian Constitution, members of the Rada must form a majority coalition within 30 days of its convening (in this case, by June 9), and the prime minister must be appointed within 60 days (by July 9). Yushchenko has already stated his intention to dismiss the Rada should it not abide by those deadlines.

More negotiations will take place among the three top finishers, but one thing is certain: No coalition with the Bloc of Yulia Timoshenko will be formed unless she is named prime minister. And even if Yushchenko and Timoshenko reunite, it will be at best an unwieldy, unstable and mutually loathing coalition. Their last attempt at cooperation ended when Yushchenko fired Timoshenko as the prime minister less than a year after her appointment.

Timoshenko is vehemently opposed to the terms of the deal with Russia, which concluded the January natural gas crisis. She will take the first available opportunity to reopen negotiations, which might not go in her favor because of her uncompromising stance. Russia's influence in Ukraine is on the rise, exemplified by the success of the Party of Regions. If the Orange coalition succeeds in reuniting and taking control of the Cabinet, expect a short period of relative calm, followed by renewed instability when the coalition falls apart .