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18/11/2016 | Frente Externo
How Trump's Victory Will Galvanize Kindred Spirits in Europe
Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election was cause for celebration among Europe's largest anti-establishment political forces. Party leaders from France's National Front, Italy's Five Star Movement and the Netherlands' Party of Freedom offered congratulations to the president-elect, thrilled by his demonstration that the political and media establishment can be thwarted. Like Trump, they hope to ride the wave of anti-establishment fervor building on both sides of the Atlantic to power in 2017, when some of the European Union's biggest economies will hold national elections.
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17/04/2016 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Brazil: Islamic State Threat Authentic, Brazilian Intelligence Agency Says
Brazil's intelligence agency confirmed the authenticity of a threat from the Islamic State to attack Brazil, first announced in a November 2015 tweet by a French member of the terrorist group, UOL Noticias reported April 14.
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27/03/2016 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Brussels Attacks Tear at the Fabric of the European Union
The March 22 terrorist attacks in Brussels come as the European Union is still reeling from the November Paris attacks and scrambling to solve the migrant crisis. More important, they come as nationalist forces are challenging key principles of the Continental bloc, including the free movement of labor and the Schengen Agreement, which eliminated border controls among several member states. The atmosphere of fear and suspicion that is sure to follow will only worsen these social, political and economic crises.
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12/02/2016 | En Parrilla
Stratfor has 11 chilling predictions for what the world will look like in 10 years
In 2015, private-intelligence firm Strategic Forecasting, or Stratfor, published its Decade Forecast, in which it projects the next 10 years of global political and economic developments. While international analysts often try their hand at predicting the major events of the coming year, Stratfor believes that it's identified the major trends of the next decade.
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25/10/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexican Zetas Drug Cartel Not Finished Yet: Stratfor Analysis
During the question-and-answer portion of our quarterly Mexico Security Monitor webinar , we were asked a question pertaining to the current status of Los Zetas. The question was something to the effect of: gSome Mexican media outlets and analysts claim that Los Zetas have been dismantled as an organization and are now little more than a eragtag operation.f Why do you disagree with that assessment?h
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29/09/2013 | Frente Externo
Central Asia and Afghanistan: A Tumultuous History
This is the first installment of a two-part series on the relationship between Central Asia and Afghanistan and the expected effects of the U.S. drawdown in Afghanistan on Central Asian security. Click here to read Part 2.
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12/09/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Analytic Guidance: The Syria Crisis
Editor's note: Periodically, Stratfor publishes guidance produced for its analysis team and shares it with readers. This guidance sets the parameters used in our own ongoing examination and assessment of events surrounding Syria's use of chemical weapons as the crisis evolves into a confrontation between the United States and Russia. Given the importance we ascribe to this fast-evolving standoff, we believe it important that readers have access to this additional insight.
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08/09/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iran: Managing U.S. Military Action in Syria
Conventional wisdom says that a weakened Syria would undermine Iran's regional influence, but a U.S. military intervention in the country could actually benefit Tehran. The government there has devised a sophisticated strategy for responding to a U.S. attack. Of course, Tehran would activate its militant proxies in the region, including Hezbollah, in the event that the United States launches an attack, but it would also exploit Washington's visceral opposition to Sunni jihadist and Islamist groups to gain concessions elsewhere.
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06/09/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Syria and the Limits of Comparison
Because so many war plans simply do not survive the reality of war itself, each war is a unique universe unto its own and thus comparisons with previous wars, while useful, may also prove illusory.
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26/08/2013 | Sociedad
In China, an Unprecedented Demographic Problem Takes Shape
Chinese society is on the verge of a structural transformation even more profound than the long and painful project of economic rebalancing, which the Communist Party is anxiously beginning to undertake. China's population is aging more rapidly than it is getting rich, giving rise to a great demographic imbalance with important implications for the Party's efforts to transform the Chinese economy and preserve its own power in the coming decade.
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20/08/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iran, Syria: Smuggling Weapons to Gain Influence in the West Bank
There are growing indications that Iran, Syria and their local proxies may be attempting to build up militant capabilities in the West Bank to eventually threaten Israel. Physically transferring weapons into Fatah-controlled West Bank will remain a key challenge, as recent arrests of weapons smugglers in Jordan have shown. Though Iran and Syria face many constraints in trying to spread militancy to the West Bank, their quiet efforts are worth noting, particularly as Hamas and Iran are now finding reasons to repair their relationship after a period of strain.
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20/08/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
European Jihadists: The Continuation of a Historical Trend
The threat of experienced militants returning to Europe from combat in North Africa and the Middle East is fueling debate about immigration and integration in Europe and strengthening xenophobic and nationalist sentiments. It is not a new phenomenon for Europeans to travel abroad to fight.
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07/08/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China's Hopes for Bridging the Taiwan Strait
More than six decades after Taiwan's estrangement from mainland China, the Taiwan Strait still represents the most physically formidable and symbolically inaccessible barrier to Beijing's objective of eventual reunification with the island. Over the course of its history, Taiwan switched hands from colonial occupiers including the Europeans and Japanese before becoming the prospective battleground between China and Taiwan in the second half of the 20th century. In recent years, military tensions between China and Taiwan have eased, and Beijing hopes that enhanced economic integration and the physical infrastructure it wants to build one day across the Taiwan Strait could bring the country a step closer to fulfilling a core geopolitical imperative by reuniting with the island.
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06/08/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
With Embassy Closures, the U.S. Errs on the Side of Caution
Global, nonspecific threats such as those that prompted recent U.S. embassy closures and travel warnings have rarely proved credible. These precautionary measures appear to be the result of two separate threats, one attack against an unspecified U.S. embassy and another against travel infrastructure -- presumably an airliner. In response to the embassy threat, the U.S. government announced Aug. 4 that it had extended the closure of several embassies in the Middle East until Aug. 10 and that African posts would now be among the embassies closed. In response to the airline threat, Washington issued a global travel alert running from Aug. 2 to Aug. 31. The travel warning and the closures have commanded the media's attention and have led to much speculation about the source and the credibility of the threats, but more often than not these threats fail to materialize.
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31/07/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
In Telangana Decision, a Microcosm of India's Geopolitical Challenge
India is set to inaugurate its 29th state: Telangana will be carved out of the existing southern state of Andhra Pradesh after the highest working body of India's ruling Congress Party decided late July 30 to find the legal means to create the new entity. The success of the Telangana movement for statehood encapsulates the deep-rooted struggles New Delhi faces in trying to preserve and manage a nation riven with internal complexities.
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20/07/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico: Will Los Zetas Unravel Without Their Leader?
The arrest of Los Zetas leader Miguel "Z-40" Trevino Morales marks the most significant capture involving a Mexican organized crime leader since 2008. On July 15, Stratfor sources confirmed Mexican and U.S. media reports saying that Trevino was arrested in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state, and that he was being transferred to Mexico City. Reports indicate that he was arrested late July 14, though that has not been confirmed. At least one source claims Trevino's nephew was also arrested.
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16/07/2013 | Economía y Finanzas
Global Shipping Contends with Oversupply Problems
The global shipping industry is oversupplied. Because supply far exceeds demand, shipping rates have plummeted, as have the prices of ships. Some shipping companies have sought to capitalize on this trend by purchasing newer, larger ships at lower prices so that they can remain price competitive. But unless demand rebounds by the time these ships become operational, the industry's oversupply problem will only worsen.
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03/07/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S. Naval Update Map: June 2013
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source information.
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02/07/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Growing Importance of the Arctic Council
The Arctic is expected to become more important in the coming decades as climate change makes natural resources and transport routes more accessible. Reflecting the growing interest in the region, the Arctic Council granted six new countries (China, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Singapore) observer status during a May 15 ministerial meeting in Kiruna, Sweden. By admitting more observers, the Arctic Council -- an organization that promotes cooperation among countries with interests in the Arctic -- will likely become more important as a forum for discussions on Arctic issues. However, this does not necessarily mean it will be able to establish itself as a central decision-making body regarding Arctic matters.
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02/07/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Egypt's Waning Influence
Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohammed Kamel Amr resigned Tuesday, becoming the most high-profile minister to step down since protests against the rule of President Mohammed Morsi began over the weekend.
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01/07/2013 | Frente Externo
Russia After Putin: Inherent Leadership Struggles
This is the first part of a three-part series on Russia's leadership after President Vladimir Putin eventually leaves office. Part 1 revisits Putin's rise to power; Part 2 will examine Russia's demographics, energy sector and Putin's political changes; and Part 3 will explore whether the political systems Putin has built will survive him.
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01/07/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China's Space Program Tries to Catch Up
China's strategic focus on space is less about national pride than about the importance of space for both the military and economic progress of the country. The Chinese space program has developed rapidly over the past decade, illustrating the importance of the program to Beijing. Shenzhou 10, a 15-day mission that began June 11 and returned to Earth the morning of June 26 marked China's fifth manned mission to space. An increasing, ongoing presence in space is essential for civilian and military communications. Satellites' functions include navigation systems such as GPS, weather data and communications relays. But the significance of space goes beyond satellites. Technological advancement and development is required for countries such as China that want to participate in future resource development in space.
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01/07/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Obstacles to a Syrian Regime Victory in Aleppo
In the wake of their seizure of Qusair in western Syria, Syrian loyalist forces are bent on capitalizing on their newfound momentum by wresting more of the loyalist core from the rebels and advancing on rebel-held territory. In order to continue their advance, however, loyalist forces will have to address logistical difficulties, potentially fight through powerful rebel blocking positions and overcome increasing U.S. weapons aid to the rebels.
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05/06/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Turkey's Violent Protests in Context
The rapid escalation of anti-government protests in Turkey in recent days has exposed a number of long-dormant fault lines in the country's complex political landscape. But even as the appeal of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (also known by its Turkish acronym, AKP) is beginning to erode, it will remain a powerful force in Turkish politics for some time to come, with its still-significant base of support throughout the country and the lack of a credible political alternative in the next elections.
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27/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Challenges to Iran's Next President
Iran's Guardian Council, the powerful vetting and oversight committee of the Islamic republic, announced Tuesday its list of eight approved candidates for the June 14 Iranian presidential election. A total of 686 presidential hopefuls had submitted their names for approval, though in recent days dozens of politicians and clerics had withdrawn their candidacies in support of better-known figures. Chief among them were former president Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and outgoing president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei.
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27/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Syria: Outside Patronage and a New Offensive for the Regime
The battle for the Syrian city of Al-Qusayr, which came under regime artillery fire May 19, is actually part of a larger battle for the highly coveted Homs governorate. As we noted in 2012, the battle has wide-reaching ramifications for the Syrian rebels since Al-Qusayr sits along a major transit point for rebel supplies and reinforcements coming in from Lebanon
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27/05/2013 | Frente Externo
U.S., Mexico: The Decline of the Colorado River
An amendment to a standing water treaty between the United States and Mexico has received publicity over the past six months as an example of progress in water sharing agreements. But the amendment, called Minute 319, is simply a glimpse into ongoing mismanagement of the Colorado River on the U.S. side of the border. Over-allocation of the river's waters 90 years ago combined with increasing populations and economic growth in the river basin have created circumstances in which conservation efforts -- no matter how organized -- could be too little to overcome the projected water deficit that the Colorado River Basin will face in the next 20 years.
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02/05/2013 | Frente Externo
Evolving U.S.-Mexico Relations and Obama's Visit
When U.S. President Barack Obama travels to Mexico on May 2, he will arrive amid a period of sweeping transformation in the country.
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30/04/2013 | Frente Externo
Anti-EU Parties Push to Combine Efforts
As a consequence of the European crisis, anti-establishment parties are gaining popularity across Europe. Geert Wilders, the leader of the Netherlands' right-wing Party for Freedom, reportedly aims to boost ties with like-minded euroskeptical and anti-immigration parties across Europe ahead of the 2014 elections for the European Parliament.
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19/04/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Boston Bombing Suspects: Grassroots Militants from Chechnya
The identities of the suspects in the Boston Marathon bombing -- Chechen brothers Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, 19, and Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26 -- appear tentatively to confirm several of Stratfor's suspicions. From this profile, the simple nature of the attack, their efforts to rob a convenience store and their lack of an escape plan, we can at least say at this point in time that they were what we refer to as grassroots militants. Despite being amateurs, such militants clearly still pose a significant threat.
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17/04/2013 | Frente Externo
The Geopolitics of the Yangtze River: Developing the Interior
Editor's Note: This is the first piece in a three-part series on the geopolitical implications of China's move to transform the Yangtze River into a major internal economic corridor. Part one provides a broad overview of the geography and history of the Yangtze River region and its role in shaping Chinese politics and statecraft. Part two examines the strategic river city of Wuhan, and part three considers the political economy of Beijing's push to develop the Yangtze River corridor.
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04/03/2013 | Frente Externo
Italian Elections Show Emerging Challenge to German Leadership
Renewed political uncertainty in Italy is threatening to rekindle instability in the eurozone, just as the currency union was showing signs of improving financial stability. Already, Italy's crisis is creating unease in Germany.
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01/03/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico: Consolidating Control Amid Reforms
The controversial and influential leader of Mexico's largest union, Elba Esther Gordillo, was arrested Feb. 26 on charges that she embezzled from union funds.
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18/01/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico's Drug War: Persisting Violence and a New President
Editor's Note: This week's Security Weekly summarizes our annual Mexico drug cartel report, in which we assess the most significant developments of 2012 and provide updated profiles of the country's powerful criminal cartels as well as a forecast for 2013. The report is a product of the coverage we maintain through our Mexico Security Memo, quarterly updates and other analyses that we produce throughout the year as part of the Mexico Security Monitor service.
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16/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Considering an Israeli Ground Assault in Gaza
The Israeli air force continues to bombard targets within the Gaza Strip, but thus far ground forces have not yet begun an incursion into the territory. Whether the current air campaign escalates to a ground assault will largely depend on the mission that the Israeli military is trying to accomplish.
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16/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iran's Agenda in the Gaza Offensive
To begin to make sense of the escalating conflict in Gaza, we need to go back to the night of Oct. 23 in Khartoum. Around 11 p.m. that night, the Yarmouk weapons facility in the Sudanese capital was attacked, presumably by the Israeli air force.
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15/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Israel: Tel Aviv Targeted by Rockets
Two projectiles, which Stratfor believes to be Fajr-5 rockets due to their range, landed near Tel Aviv -- one just south of the municipal line and one in the water just outside of the southern suburb of Bat Yam.
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03/08/2011 | En Parrilla
Russian Privatization and Modernization
Analyst Lauren Goodrich examines the reasons behind Moscow’s plan to privatize strategic Russian firms.
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03/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Shifting Turkey's Military to Foreign Policy
Analyst Kamran Bokhari examines how the resignations of four Turkish generals signal the changing role of Turkey’s military from the dominant domestic political actor to the foreign policy tool of the civilian government.
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29/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somali Government Strikes at Al Shabaab
Analyst Mark Schroeder examines the pressures facing al Shabaab from a military offensive by Somali government and African Union forces, and internal divisions about how to respond to Somali populations suffering from severe drought conditions impacting Somalia.
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17/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
How to Travel Safely - Tips from a Former Agent
It’s travel season in many parts of the world. In fact, our own Scott Stewart is traveling, so in lieu of this week’s regular Security Weekly, we bring you a valuable piece for anyone with an upcoming trip. Fred Burton, former special agent and STRATFOR’s VP of Intelligence, discusses tips on how to stay safe while traveling.
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17/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
How to Travel Safely - Tips from a Former Agent
It’s travel season in many parts of the world. In fact, our own Scott Stewart is traveling, so in lieu of this week’s regular Security Weekly, we bring you a valuable piece for anyone with an upcoming trip. Fred Burton, former special agent and STRATFOR’s VP of Intelligence, discusses tips on how to stay safe while traveling.
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14/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Red Alert: Multiple Explosions in Mumbai
Three explosions were reported in Mumbai on July 13 in the crowded Opera House, Zaveri Bazaar and Dadar areas of the city.
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14/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Red Alert: Multiple Explosions in Mumbai
Three explosions were reported in Mumbai on July 13 in the crowded Opera House, Zaveri Bazaar and Dadar areas of the city.
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13/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Details on the Death of Karzai's Brother
Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s younger half-brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, was killed in Kandahar on July 12 during a gathering in his house, Kandahar Governor Tooryali Wesa confirmed. Initial reports remain sketchy but it is believed that the Afghan leader’s brother was killed by multiple gunshots to the head and chest with a AK-47 fired by Sardar Mohammad, a former bodyguard to Karzai’s older brother Qayyoum. Unconfirmed reports say that the assassin was immediately killed and Ahmad Wali’s body has been taken to Mirwais Civil Hospital. One of the two official spokesmen for the Taliban, Qari Yousuf Ahmadi, told the German News Agency Deutsche Presse Agentur that Ahmad Wali Karzai was killed by a Taliban sleeper agent.
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13/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Dispatch: Assassination and Post-NATO Afghanistan
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
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13/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Details on the Death of Karzai's Brother
Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s younger half-brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, was killed in Kandahar on July 12 during a gathering in his house, Kandahar Governor Tooryali Wesa confirmed. Initial reports remain sketchy but it is believed that the Afghan leader’s brother was killed by multiple gunshots to the head and chest with a AK-47 fired by Sardar Mohammad, a former bodyguard to Karzai’s older brother Qayyoum. Unconfirmed reports say that the assassin was immediately killed and Ahmad Wali’s body has been taken to Mirwais Civil Hospital. One of the two official spokesmen for the Taliban, Qari Yousuf Ahmadi, told the German News Agency Deutsche Presse Agentur that Ahmad Wali Karzai was killed by a Taliban sleeper agent.
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13/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Dispatch: Assassination and Post-NATO Afghanistan
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
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06/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Above the Tearline: Assault on Sarkozy
Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the implications of the protective intelligence failure surrounding the June 30 assault on French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
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06/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Above the Tearline: Assault on Sarkozy
Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the implications of the protective intelligence failure surrounding the June 30 assault on French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
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07/06/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Dispatch: Re-examining the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
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07/06/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Dispatch: Re-examining the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
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20/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood on the March, but Cautiously
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) officially registered Wednesday for the formation of a new political wing, paving the way for the establishment of the Freedom and Justice Party.
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20/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood on the March, but Cautiously
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) officially registered Wednesday for the formation of a new political wing, paving the way for the establishment of the Freedom and Justice Party.
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02/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Osama bin Laden Killed
The United States has killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and recovered his body, according to numerous media reports May 1 citing U.S. officials. U.S. President Barack Obama is scheduled to make an announcement on the subject. It is not clear precisely how bin Laden was killed or how his body was recovered, but the assertion that he is dead is significant.
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02/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Osama bin Laden Killed
The United States has killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and recovered his body, according to numerous media reports May 1 citing U.S. officials. U.S. President Barack Obama is scheduled to make an announcement on the subject. It is not clear precisely how bin Laden was killed or how his body was recovered, but the assertion that he is dead is significant.
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19/03/2011 | Frente Externo
Libya Crisis: Implications of the Cease-Fire
Libya’s government announced an immediate cease-fire on March 18, a day after the U.N. Security Council approved a no-fly zone over the North African country. The move complicates European efforts to spearhead a campaign against Libyan government troops. Assuming Tripoli follows through on its declaration, the affect on operations against the Libyan rebels remains in question.
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17/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Radiation Rising and Heading South in Japan
The nuclear reactor situation in Japan has deteriorated significantly. Two more explosions occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on March 15.
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14/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Saudi Intervention in Bahrain
Forces from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will enter Bahrain to help the Bahraini regime quell unrest, according to a number of media reports, including by Bahrain’s Alyam newspaper, known for its close links with the ruling al-Khalifa family.
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12/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Possible Nuclear Meltdown at Japanese Plant
Japanese officials are cautioning that a nuclear meltdown may occur at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant near the town of Okuma. According to Japan’s Jiji Press, some of the reactor’s nuclear fuel rods were briefly exposed to the air after the reactor’s water levels dropped through evaporation. A fire engine is currently pumping water into the reactor and the water levels are recovering, according to an operator of the Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), which operates the plant. A TEPCO spokesman said the company believes the reactor is not melting down or cracking and that workers are currently attempting to raise the water level.
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12/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Explosion Reported at Japanese Nuclear Plant
An explosion occurred March 12 at the Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Okuma, Japan, Japanese news agency Jiji reported, citing local police. Reports of an explosion and smoke come after Japanese officials cautioned that a nuclear meltdown was possible.
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12/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nuclear Meltdown at Quake-Damaged Japanese Plant
A March 12 explosion at the earthquake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Okuma, Japan, appears to have caused a reactor meltdown.
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12/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Officials Claim Positive Signs on Japanese Reactor
New developments at Japan’s earthquake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor No. 1 may suggest positive signs for authorities’ efforts to contain the problem. But many dangers and risks remain.
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12/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Japanese Government Confirms Meltdown
Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) said March 12 that the explosion at the Fukushima Daiichi No. 1 nuclear plant could only have been caused by a meltdown of the reactor core, Japanese daily Nikkei reported. This statement seemed somewhat at odds with Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano’s comments earlier March 12, in which he said “the walls of the building containing the reactor were destroyed, meaning that the metal container encasing the reactor did not explode.”
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03/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Gunman Targets U.S. Soldiers At Frankfurt Airport
Two people were killed and two were injured, at least one critically, in a shooting attack on U.S. military personnel at 3:20 p.m. local time March 2 at Germany’s Frankfurt International Airport. According to breaking news reports, an armed attacker boarded a U.S. military bus idling in front of Terminal 2 and began shooting. The two killed were a U.S. soldier and the driver of the bus, whose nationality is unclear. The perpetrator is alleged to be from Kosovo, of Albanian ethnicity and 21 years old, according to German media sources. According to news reports, the U.S. forces involved in the attack were on their way to Afghanistan.
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22/02/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Unrest and Libya's Energy Industry
Summary - Libya’s political strife has already begun to impact its energy production, and this is just the beginning.
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21/02/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Clashes in Tripoli
Emerging reports early Feb. 21 indicate the unrest in Libya is spreading from eastern Libya to the capital of Tripoli. According to initial reports, heavy gunfire was heard in central Tripoli and in other districts, with Al Jazeera reporting 61 people killed in Tripoli on Feb. 21.
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12/02/2011 | Frente Externo
Mubarak Resigns, Military is in Charge
Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman delivered the following statement Feb. 11: “In the name of God the merciful, the compassionate, citizens, during these very difficult circumstances Egypt is going through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from the office of president of the republic and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country. May God help everybody.”
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01/02/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Regime Change in Egypt and a Radicalizing Region
Analyst Kamran Bokhari explores the potential behavior of a post-Mubarak Egypt and the fears that a radical Cairo could align with Iran and Islamist movements in the region.
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30/01/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Egyptian Unrest: A Special Report
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak remains the lifeblood of the demonstrators, who still number in the tens of thousands in downtown Cairo and in other major cities, albeit on a lesser scale. After being overwhelmed in the Jan. 28 Day of Rage protests, Egypt’s internal security forces — with the anti-riot paramilitaries of the Central Security Forces (CSF) at the forefront — were glaringly absent from the streets Jan. 29.
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29/01/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Red Alert: Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood
The following is a report from a STRATFOR source in Hamas. Hamas, which formed in Gaza as an outgrowth of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), has an interest in exaggerating its role and coordination with the MB in this crisis. The following information has not been confirmed. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of concern building in Israel and the United States in particular over the role of the MB in the demonstrations and whether a political opening will be made for the Islamist organization in Egypt.
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28/01/2011 | Frente Externo
Dispatch: Egyptian Unrest Continues
Middle East analyst Kamran Bokhari discusses the Mubarak government’s potential vulnerability as a result of the street protests, which may exacerbate the country’s leadership succession troubles.
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19/01/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Self-Immolation as a Political Tool
VP of Strategic Intelligence Rodger Baker examines the tactic of self-immolation as a way to galvanize protest movements.
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07/01/2011 | Frente Externo
Shared Oil Interests in Sudan
Analyst Mark Schroeder examines the upcoming Jan. 9 referendum on Southern Sudanese independence and how shared oil interests with Sudan will likely keep both countries from a return to civil war.
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29/12/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Dispatch: Making the Taliban Politically Legitimate?
Analyst Kamran Bokhari examines a proposal originating from a meeting between Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan to make the Afghan Taliban a legitimate political entity.
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17/12/2010 | Frente Externo
Dispatch: Venezuelan Presidential Powers Expand
Analyst Reva Bhalla examines Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s growing vulnerabilities at home and abroad in light of a new law that will give him expansive executive power.
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16/12/2010 | Frente Externo
Dispatch: Tracking Egypt's Presidential Succession Plan
Analyst Reva Bhalla examines the evolving dynamics of Egypt’s presidential succession plan and the possibility for increased military influence in Cairo’s political affairs.
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10/12/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Dispatch: Chinese Influence in North Korea and the World
Analyst Matt Gertken examines Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo’s visit to North Korea amid tensions on the peninsula, and how his recent editorial counters accusations that China is becoming more aggressive.
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24/11/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Is North Korea Moving Another 'Red Line'?
North Korea and South Korea exchanged artillery fire near their disputed border in the Yellow Sea/West Sea on Nov. 23. The incident raises several questions, not the least of which is whether Pyongyang is attempting to move the real “red line” for conventional weapons engagements, just as it has managed to move the limit of “acceptable” behavior regarding its nuclear program.
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23/11/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
North Korean Artillery Attack on a Southern Island
North Korea and South Korea have reportedly traded artillery fire Nov. 23 across the disputed Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the Yellow Sea to the west of the peninsula. Though details are still sketchy, South Korean news reports indicate that around 2:30 p.m. local time, North Korean artillery shells began landing in the waters around Yeonpyeongdo, one of the South Korean-controlled islands just south of the NLL. North Korea has reportedly fired as many as 200 rounds, some of which struck the island, injuring at least 10 South Korean soldiers, damaging buildings and setting fire to a mountainside. South Korea responded by firing some 80 shells of its own toward North Korea, dispatching F-16 fighter jets to the area and raising the military alert to its highest level.
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15/04/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Caucasus Emirate
On April 9, a woman armed with a pistol and with explosives strapped to her body approached a group of police officers in the northern Caucasus village of Ekazhevo, in the southern Russian republic of Ingushetia.
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15/04/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Caucasus Emirate
On April 9, a woman armed with a pistol and with explosives strapped to her body approached a group of police officers in the northern Caucasus village of Ekazhevo, in the southern Russian republic of Ingushetia.
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03/04/2009 | Frente Externo
Setting the Stage for U.S.-German Discussions
A phalanx of bilateral meetings among a score of world leaders took place Tuesday and Wednesday, kicking off a week of momentous summits.
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31/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Paraguay, Brazil - At an Impasse Over Itaipu Output
Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo rejected a Brazilian offer March 27 to settle an ongoing dispute over the electricity generated by the jointly owned Itaipu dam, which straddles the border of the two countries.
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31/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico - Monterrey and the Zeta-BLO Relationship
Authorities in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, announced the capture this past week of Hector “La Burra” Huerta Rios, who is believed to have overseen the operations of the Beltran Leyva organization (BLO) in northeastern Mexico. Huerta was detained March 24, along with at least four accomplices in possession of several assault rifles and approximately $12,000 in cash.
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30/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia - Ramifications of the Chechen War's End
Russia’s president has brought up the idea of considering officially ending the war in Chechnya. A Russian withdrawal from the Caucasian republic raises questions about the future loyalty of Chechnya’s president — and about just what Russia will do with the troops it is pulling out of Chechnya.
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30/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Afghanistan, U.S.: Pakistan's Place in Washington's Strategy
U.S. President Barack Obama discussed his administration’s strategy for Afghanistan on March 27. The strategy includes sending funds to Pakistan for the next five years. The Obama administration’s plan for fighting the war in Afghanistan, much like the Bush administration’s plan, depends greatly on influencing Pakistan. Whether Washington’s attempts at influencing Pakistan with positive incentives will work or not remains to be seen.
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28/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sudan - Iranian Ties At Risk
An alleged Israeli air strike in Sudan targeting an arms convoy destined for Hamas sheds light on Iran’s long-standing relationship with the regime of Sudanese President Omar al Bashir. That relationship, however, is likely to come under stress as al Bashir’s problems pile up.
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28/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Nigeria's MEND: Odili, Asari and the NDPVF
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has evolved in sync with Nigerian power brokers and politicians as they have fought for influence and wealth. And Nigeria’s wealth lies largely in Rivers state, where a rivalry between Ijaw Chief Edwin Clark and Rivers Gov. Peter Odili resulted in a declaration of war against the state of Nigeria by Ijaw youth leader Mujahid Dokubo-Asari. Having once worked closely with Asari and his Ijaw Youth Council, Odili decided to dump him in order to undermine Clark. Odili took the gloves off and Clark responded in kind.Editor’s Note: This is the second part of a three-part series on the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta.
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26/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mercosur - Mercopol and Brazil's Increasing Influence
Brazil is expected to propose the creation of a regional police force as part of the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) trade union. Despite Mercosur’s destabilization as a result of Argentina’s economic troubles and the global economic downturn, Brazil appears ready to use Mercosur as a platform for greater regional security cooperation — an endeavor that will strengthen Brazil’s regional leadership.
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25/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Czech Republic - The Government Collapses
The government of the Czech Republic lost a no-confidence vote March 24. While the prime minister might be allowed to remain in office until the end of the Czech Republic’s EU presidency term, he will receive even less attention from fellow EU leaders and Russia than before.
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25/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico - Security Risk to Foreign Tourists
A Norwegian tourist was among three civilian bystanders wounded this past week in Taxco, Guerrero state, when two men armed with assault rifles abducted an unidentified man near the city’s main plaza. After forcing the man into a vehicle, the gunmen fired indiscriminately into the air and toward a crowd, presumably to force them to scatter so the shooters could drive away.
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23/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China - Security Memo: Personal Data, Virtual Kidnappings and Credit Card Fraud
March 20, 2009.STRATFOR has previously noted a rise in kidnappings and in “virtual” kidnappings in China. One of the factors facilitating the proliferation of virtual kidnappings is the ease with which confidential personal information can be obtained in China. With access to specific information like a child’s name and age along with information on that child’s parents (including the parents’ phone number), criminals can make their threat sound and seem much more credible — thus increasing the likelihood of receiving a payout. (Of course, the risk of these same people using this information carrying out real kidnappings with the same information is also high).
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23/03/2009 | Economía y Finanzas
Venezuela - Chavez's Revised Economic Outlook
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced changes to government economic policy March 21. The changes include a revised anticipated price of oil (on which the 2009 budget is based), a slight reduction in expected spending and an increase in both sales tax and the minimum wage. These limited changes are accompanied by further consolidation of central government control over the country, including a March 21 directive ordering the military to take control of four ports away from opposition governors.
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20/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Nigeria's MEND: Connecting the Dots
Since 2006, a little-known militant group in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta has made life difficult for international oil companies in the region. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has attacked oil-field infrastructure, kidnapped foreign workers and stolen oil and sold it on the black market. Enriching itself and others in the process — and contrary to the image it tries to convey — the group is not exactly a band of freedom fighters. An in-depth STRATFOR investigation has revealed ties to the Nigerian political establishment and a lineage that begins with the end of military rule in 1999.Editor’s Note: This is the first part of a three-part series on the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta.
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19/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Russia - The Electricity Sector in Jeopardy
Russia’s electricity sector could end up on the list of casualties in the global financial crisis.
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19/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iraq - A Political Landscape Without Talabani?
With Iraq finally stabilizing and the United States eager to shift its military focus to Afghanistan, the last thing the U.S. effort needs is a destabilized Iraqi Kurdistan. That could happen when Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s term expires later this year.
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19/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Russia - The Electricity Sector in Jeopardy
Russia’s electricity sector could end up on the list of casualties in the global financial crisis.
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19/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iraq - A Political Landscape Without Talabani?
With Iraq finally stabilizing and the United States eager to shift its military focus to Afghanistan, the last thing the U.S. effort needs is a destabilized Iraqi Kurdistan. That could happen when Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s term expires later this year.
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17/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Madagascar - Storming the Presidential Palace and the Struggle Ahead
Rebel troops stormed the presidential palace in the capital of Madagascar on March 16 while Madagascar President Marc Ravalomanana was at another presidential office about six miles away.
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17/03/2009 | Frente Externo
El Salvador - Presidential Elections and a Change in Politics
A presidential win for the leftist Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) party marks a major shift in El Salvador’s politics, as the former militant organization rises to the country’s highest position of power.
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17/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico - An Unprecedented Focus on Juarez
Authorities in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, announced March 15 that an additional 5,000 security forces had arrived in the city over the previous several days, bringing the total number of law enforcement and military forces in the area to more than 12,000.
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17/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Madagascar - Storming the Presidential Palace and the Struggle Ahead
Rebel troops stormed the presidential palace in the capital of Madagascar on March 16 while Madagascar President Marc Ravalomanana was at another presidential office about six miles away.
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17/03/2009 | Frente Externo
El Salvador - Presidential Elections and a Change in Politics
A presidential win for the leftist Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) party marks a major shift in El Salvador’s politics, as the former militant organization rises to the country’s highest position of power.
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17/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico - An Unprecedented Focus on Juarez
Authorities in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, announced March 15 that an additional 5,000 security forces had arrived in the city over the previous several days, bringing the total number of law enforcement and military forces in the area to more than 12,000.
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15/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan - Political Leaders and Security Threats
The Pakistani Interior Ministry on March 12 warned top opposition leader and two-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of jihadist plans to assassinate Pakistani political leaders,
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15/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan - Political Leaders and Security Threats
The Pakistani Interior Ministry on March 12 warned top opposition leader and two-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of jihadist plans to assassinate Pakistani political leaders,
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14/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Brazil, Colombia - A Deal Signals Strategic Cooperation
Colombia and Brazil have signed an agreement granting mutual overflight privileges in border areas during hot pursuit operations. The move signals a significant increase in strategic cooperation between two of South America’s most powerful countries.
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14/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Brazil, Colombia - A Deal Signals Strategic Cooperation
Colombia and Brazil have signed an agreement granting mutual overflight privileges in border areas during hot pursuit operations. The move signals a significant increase in strategic cooperation between two of South America’s most powerful countries.
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12/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia - Heroin and a Bleak Demographic Picture
The head of Russia’s anti-narcotics service said March 11 that the country is now the world’s largest consumer of heroin. Russia is already facing a demographic crisis as birth rates continue falling and AIDS, alcohol and drugs take their toll on the country’s population. The spread of heroin use will only make matters worse, and the flow of the drug into Russia is nearly impossible to stop.
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12/03/2009 | Frente Externo
U.S. - Finding Time to Revitalize Latin American Relations
A high-profile Washington think tank has published a list of policy recommendations for the U.S. policy toward Latin America. But questions remain on whether, and how soon, the Obama administration will be able to address revitalizing relations with the region.
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12/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia - Heroin and a Bleak Demographic Picture
The head of Russia’s anti-narcotics service said March 11 that the country is now the world’s largest consumer of heroin. Russia is already facing a demographic crisis as birth rates continue falling and AIDS, alcohol and drugs take their toll on the country’s population. The spread of heroin use will only make matters worse, and the flow of the drug into Russia is nearly impossible to stop.
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12/03/2009 | Frente Externo
U.S. - Finding Time to Revitalize Latin American Relations
A high-profile Washington think tank has published a list of policy recommendations for the U.S. policy toward Latin America. But questions remain on whether, and how soon, the Obama administration will be able to address revitalizing relations with the region.
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11/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Iran - Rafsanjani and Iran's Foreign Policy and Domestic Situation
Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been re-elected head of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the country’s most powerful state organ. While Rafsanjani, Iran’s most prominent pragmatic conservative, consolidates his grip on Iran’s domestic political scene, he simultaneously is taking a proactive role in the most important element of Tehran’s foreign policy, something demonstrated by his recent weeklong visit to Iraq. These moves notwithstanding, Iran’s domestic politics and foreign policy will remain opaque until after its June presidential election.
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11/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Iran - Rafsanjani and Iran's Foreign Policy and Domestic Situation
Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been re-elected head of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the country’s most powerful state organ. While Rafsanjani, Iran’s most prominent pragmatic conservative, consolidates his grip on Iran’s domestic political scene, he simultaneously is taking a proactive role in the most important element of Tehran’s foreign policy, something demonstrated by his recent weeklong visit to Iraq. These moves notwithstanding, Iran’s domestic politics and foreign policy will remain opaque until after its June presidential election.
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10/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico - Juarez Calming Down?
After months of record-breaking violence in Ciudad Juarez, this past week showed the recent influx of troops to the city may be having a positive effect. There were some 1,600 organized crime-related homicides in Ciudad Juarez during 2008, and in January 2009 the city averaged about 13 killings per day. In response to this continued violence, the Mexican government began sending an additional 5,000 military and 1,000 federal police forces to the city during the week of March 2, to reinforce the estimated 2,500 troops already there. Since then, the city’s homicide rate has dropped drastically, to what appears to be between one and two deaths per day.
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10/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico - Juarez Calming Down?
After months of record-breaking violence in Ciudad Juarez, this past week showed the recent influx of troops to the city may be having a positive effect. There were some 1,600 organized crime-related homicides in Ciudad Juarez during 2008, and in January 2009 the city averaged about 13 killings per day. In response to this continued violence, the Mexican government began sending an additional 5,000 military and 1,000 federal police forces to the city during the week of March 2, to reinforce the estimated 2,500 troops already there. Since then, the city’s homicide rate has dropped drastically, to what appears to be between one and two deaths per day.
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07/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Morocco - A Saudi-led Diplomatic Offensive Against Iran
Morocco broke off diplomatic ties with Iran on March 6 after accusing Tehran of engaging in hostile activities in the North African state. The move is part of a new Saudi initiative to forge a common Arab platform to counter the threat from a rising Iran. The Saudis are unlikely to achieve their aim because of the divisions in the Arab world, especially on the issue of how to deal with the Islamic republic.
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07/03/2009 | Transparencia
Japan - The Politics of a Construction Scandal
Japanese opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa reiterated that he was not considering resigning as leader of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) on March 6.
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07/03/2009 | Economía y Finanzas
Venezuela - Voting Over, Focus Returns to Finances
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has announced the state’s takeover of two rice production facilities and budget cutbacks for state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela. These are the government’s opening moves in response to the global economic downturn.
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07/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Morocco - A Saudi-led Diplomatic Offensive Against Iran
Morocco broke off diplomatic ties with Iran on March 6 after accusing Tehran of engaging in hostile activities in the North African state. The move is part of a new Saudi initiative to forge a common Arab platform to counter the threat from a rising Iran. The Saudis are unlikely to achieve their aim because of the divisions in the Arab world, especially on the issue of how to deal with the Islamic republic.
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07/03/2009 | Transparencia
Japan - The Politics of a Construction Scandal
Japanese opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa reiterated that he was not considering resigning as leader of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) on March 6.
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07/03/2009 | Economía y Finanzas
Venezuela - Voting Over, Focus Returns to Finances
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has announced the state’s takeover of two rice production facilities and budget cutbacks for state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela. These are the government’s opening moves in response to the global economic downturn.
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05/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Armenia - Hard Economic Times and Growing Russian Influence
Armenia’s currency was devalued by more than 20 percent March 3 as the country’s central bank suspended currency interventions to receive a loan from the International Monetary Fund. The move highlights the dire conditions of the Armenian economy as well as Yerevan’s lack of options. These conditions are quite likely to increase Russian influence in the small country in the Caucasus.
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05/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S., Mexico - A Travel Warning from the ATF
The U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) issued a press release March 2 cautioning travel to Mexico, an unprecedented move for the agency.
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05/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Sudan - The Warrant for Bashir
The International Criminal Court (ICC) on March 4 issued a warrant for the arrest of Sudanese President Omar al Bashir. The warrant signals that work is under way to resolve conflict in the country’s Darfur region, but the move is unlikely to lead to Bashir’s arrest.
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05/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Armenia - Hard Economic Times and Growing Russian Influence
Armenia’s currency was devalued by more than 20 percent March 3 as the country’s central bank suspended currency interventions to receive a loan from the International Monetary Fund. The move highlights the dire conditions of the Armenian economy as well as Yerevan’s lack of options. These conditions are quite likely to increase Russian influence in the small country in the Caucasus.
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05/03/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S., Mexico - A Travel Warning from the ATF
The U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) issued a press release March 2 cautioning travel to Mexico, an unprecedented move for the agency.
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05/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Sudan - The Warrant for Bashir
The International Criminal Court (ICC) on March 4 issued a warrant for the arrest of Sudanese President Omar al Bashir. The warrant signals that work is under way to resolve conflict in the country’s Darfur region, but the move is unlikely to lead to Bashir’s arrest.
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28/02/2009 | Frente Externo
United Arab Emirates - The Immigration Crackdown Begins
The United Arab Emirates Interior Ministry has instructed police to crack down on illegal immigrants in Ajman and other emirates, Khaleej Times reported Feb. 27, citing Interior Ministry Undersecretary Shaikh Saif Abdullah al-Shaafar. According to al-Shaafar, police from Ajman and Dubai started raiding neighborhoods in an intensive operation beginning Feb. 26 as they were “instructed to launch an inspection campaign on every inch of the UAE to clear its soil from violators.”
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28/02/2009 | En Parrilla
Intelligence Guidance - Week of March 1, 2009
Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
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28/02/2009 | Frente Externo
United Arab Emirates - The Immigration Crackdown Begins
The United Arab Emirates Interior Ministry has instructed police to crack down on illegal immigrants in Ajman and other emirates, Khaleej Times reported Feb. 27, citing Interior Ministry Undersecretary Shaikh Saif Abdullah al-Shaafar. According to al-Shaafar, police from Ajman and Dubai started raiding neighborhoods in an intensive operation beginning Feb. 26 as they were “instructed to launch an inspection campaign on every inch of the UAE to clear its soil from violators.”
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28/02/2009 | En Parrilla
Intelligence Guidance - Week of March 1, 2009
Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
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27/02/2009 | Frente Externo
UAE - Dubai Issues Bonds
Hit hard by the global financial crisis, Dubai issued bonds on Feb. 22 as a means to raise $10 billion in cash to meet its financial obligations, which were bought by the United Arab Emirates’ central bank. Although Dubai is attempting to avoid taking loans from the UAE’s wealthiest emirate, it cannot prevent dependency on Abu Dhabi because of that country’s control of the central bank. This is just the first step in the process of Abu Dhabi gaining influence over Dubai, and how far it goes depends on the duration of the international financial crisis.
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27/02/2009 | En Profundidad
Argentina - The Latest Nationalization Threat
The Argentine government is analyzing the possibility of nationalizing grain commerce, La Nacion reported Feb. 27, citing sources in the Federal Administration of Public Income (AFIP).
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27/02/2009 | Frente Externo
UAE - Dubai Issues Bonds
Hit hard by the global financial crisis, Dubai issued bonds on Feb. 22 as a means to raise $10 billion in cash to meet its financial obligations, which were bought by the United Arab Emirates’ central bank. Although Dubai is attempting to avoid taking loans from the UAE’s wealthiest emirate, it cannot prevent dependency on Abu Dhabi because of that country’s control of the central bank. This is just the first step in the process of Abu Dhabi gaining influence over Dubai, and how far it goes depends on the duration of the international financial crisis.
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27/02/2009 | En Profundidad
Argentina - The Latest Nationalization Threat
The Argentine government is analyzing the possibility of nationalizing grain commerce, La Nacion reported Feb. 27, citing sources in the Federal Administration of Public Income (AFIP).
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19/02/2009 | Frente Externo
Obama's Mexico Challenge
Mexican Interior Secretary Fernando Gomez Mont on Wednesday criticized a recent U.S. Joint Forces Command report that warns of the potential for the Mexican state to collapse and says a devolution of control in Mexico would require U.S. intervention.
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19/02/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico: The Third War
Mexico has pretty much always been a rough-and-tumble place. In recent years, however, the security environment has deteriorated rapidly, and parts of the country have become incredibly violent. It is now common to see military weaponry such as fragmentation grenades and assault rifles used almost daily in attacks.
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19/02/2009 | Frente Externo
Russia - Clouds on Gazprom's Horizon
Recent figures show troubling signs for Russian natural gas giant Gazprom, with decreases in both production and export values in 2008 and even sharper falls predicted for 2009. Less revenue for Gazprom translates into less influence for Russia and could have long-term implications for Moscow’s relationship with Europe and its strategic rivalry with the United States.
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19/02/2009 | Economía y Finanzas
LatinAmerica - Loans-For-Crude
Jose Sergio Gabrielli, the chief executive of Brazilian state oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras), has announced a pending deal with the China Development Bank, O Estado de S. Paulo reported Wednesday. Under the rough sketch of the deal that has been released, China would lend Brazil $10 billion to help pay for expensive deepwater energy development — and Brazil would repay the loan not with cash, but with oil. According to the report, the deal was to be at the top of the agenda when Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping arrived in Brazil on Thursday.
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31/01/2009 | En Parrilla
A New Phase in U.S.-Russian Relations?
Russia has suspended its plans to deploy Iskander short-range ballistic missiles to its Kaliningrad enclave because the new U.S. administration is “not rushing through” with plans to establish a missile shield in central Europe, Interfax reported Wednesday, citing an unnamed Russian military official.
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31/01/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The World's Pivot
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan created a stir at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday with a lengthy condemnation of Israel’s recent actions in the Gaza Strip.
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31/01/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
More Progress Ahead for U.S.-Iranian Talks
Susan Rice, the new U.S. envoy to the United Nations, on Monday echoed President Barack Obama’s campaign pledge to pursue a new approach in dealing with Iran, saying his administration intends to engage in direct diplomacy with Tehran.
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23/01/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S. - The Complexities of Closing Guantanamo
President Barack Obama signed an executive order Jan. 22 to close the controversial detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, within a year, along with secret CIA prisons around the world.
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23/01/2009 | En Parrilla
For China, Grim Data and a Grimmer Economy
China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday released preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) figures for 2008. According to the report, the country’s economy expanded by 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to the same quarter a year earlier.
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18/01/2009 | En Parrilla
Obama's Mexico Challenge
Mexican Interior Secretary Fernando Gomez Mont on Wednesday criticized a recent U.S. Joint Forces Command report that warns of the potential for the Mexican state to collapse and says a devolution of control in Mexico would require U.S. intervention.
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13/01/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Obama Deals His First Iran Cards
U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said Sunday on ABC that he intends to engage Iran. Obama said there would be a “a new emphasis on respect and a new emphasis on being willing to talk, but also a clarity about what our bottom lines are.” He added: “We are in preparation for that. We anticipate that we’re going to have to move swiftly in that area.”
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05/01/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Gaza Offensive and Obama's Presidency
Israel’s military offensive against Hamas in Gaza entered its ninth day on Sunday. Israeli forces moved across the Gaza Strip to the Mediterranean, splitting the territory in two, and began gathering around Gaza City.
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02/01/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Israel's Strategy in Gaza
Five days after Israel launched Operation Cast Lead against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, its war strategy is showing signs of unraveling.
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25/12/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mumbai, Corporate Security and Indo-Pakistani Conflict
The Trident-Oberoi and Taj Mahal hotels in Mumbai reopened Dec. 21, less than one month after the Nov. 26 Mumbai attack that left more than 170 people dead. During that crisis, hotel guests and visitors became trapped after coming under attack from militants using guns, grenades and other weapons to kill indiscriminately.
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25/12/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Ukraine - The Ruthenians and the Russian Resurgence
Stratfor sources in Moscow have reported of plans by the Ruthenians, an ethnic group located primarily in western Ukraine, to declare independence from Ukraine. The reports maintain that the Ruthenians are not acting alone, but have been receiving organizational backing and financial support from Russia. It is no secret that Russia has been working to increase and consolidate its influence in Ukraine.
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24/12/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico - Drug violence in Guerrero
Organized criminal activity continued throughout Mexico this past week. In Tamaulipas state, threats and extortion attempts against the gambling industry have led at least 12 such businesses to close their doors.
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24/12/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Afghanistan Surge
U.S. Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in Kabul on Saturday that the United States will send an additional 20,000 to 30,000 troops to Afghanistan in the first half of 2009.
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19/12/2008 | Frente Externo
Russia, Obama and the S-300
There has been extensive discussion of the idea that U.S. President-elect Barack Obama might be tested early in his term by foreign powers, much as other presidents have been tested. If reports in the Russian media are correct, Obama’s first test is starting to take shape: According to RIA Novosti news agency, Russia is in the process of “implementing a contract” that would ultimately deliver the S-300 strategic air defense system to Iran.
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14/12/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexican Drug Cartels: Government Progress and Growing Violence - PDF

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14/12/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Obama's Looming Mexican Crisis
PART 1: A CRITICAL CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS
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13/12/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Significance of Pirates
High-level discussions began Thursday over a U.S.-sponsored resolution at the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) that seeks to strengthen the international response to piracy in waters off the coast of Somalia.
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13/12/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Significance of Pirates
High-level discussions began Thursday over a U.S.-sponsored resolution at the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) that seeks to strengthen the international response to piracy in waters off the coast of Somalia.
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07/12/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Rate Cuts Nearing the Bottom
Four central banks in Europe lowered their benchmark interest rates on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.5 percent, Swedish Riksbank by 1.75 points (a record cut) to 2 percent, the Danish central bank by three-quarters of a point to 4.25 percent, and the Bank of England (BOE) by 1 point to 2 percent (the lowest rate since 1951). New Zealand’s central bank also cut its rate by 1.5 points to 5 percent — a record and the bank’s fourth cut since July.
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07/12/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Rate Cuts Nearing the Bottom
Four central banks in Europe lowered their benchmark interest rates on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.5 percent, Swedish Riksbank by 1.75 points (a record cut) to 2 percent, the Danish central bank by three-quarters of a point to 4.25 percent, and the Bank of England (BOE) by 1 point to 2 percent (the lowest rate since 1951). New Zealand’s central bank also cut its rate by 1.5 points to 5 percent — a record and the bank’s fourth cut since July.
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27/11/2008 | Frente Externo
Obama's Plans for the Economy
In the battle against economic stagnation and outright deflation, U.S. President-elect Barack Obama came out swinging on Sunday, signaling that he would pursue a combination of spending increases and tax cuts upon taking office.
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27/11/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
High-Stakes Talks Between Kiev and Moscow
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko has a team in Moscow on Monday and Tuesday to negotiate with the Russian government and its natural gas giant, Gazprom, over outstanding debts for natural gas supplies.
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27/11/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India - The Militant Name Game
A group calling itself the Deccan Mujahideen claimed responsibility for the attacks in Mumbai, India, on Nov. 26. Though the name Deccan Mujahideen has not been used by an Islamist militant group in India before, the new name does not necessarily mean the group itself is new.
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27/11/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India - An Update on Mumbai
As militants continued holding hostages at the Taj Hotel, Oberoi Tower and Nariman (Chabad) House in Mumbai, India, Indian police said they expect operations in Mumbai to continue all day Nov. 27, IBN reported. Thus far, 101 people — including at least nine foreigners — have been reported dead
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27/11/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Red Alert: Possible Geopolitical Consequences of the Mumbai Attacks
Summary- If the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants as it appears, the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the United States into the fray.
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27/11/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India: The Need to React
Summary- A massive and well-organized attack by militants in Mumbai, India, has left nearly 100 people dead so far, promises to cut deeply into India’s foreign investment prospects and threatens to rock India’s government. As India responds to the attack, its relationship with Pakistan will be front and center, and the potential for a destabilization of relations between the two geopolitical rivals is high.
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27/11/2008 | Frente Externo
Obama's Plans for the Economy
In the battle against economic stagnation and outright deflation, U.S. President-elect Barack Obama came out swinging on Sunday, signaling that he would pursue a combination of spending increases and tax cuts upon taking office.
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27/11/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
High-Stakes Talks Between Kiev and Moscow
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko has a team in Moscow on Monday and Tuesday to negotiate with the Russian government and its natural gas giant, Gazprom, over outstanding debts for natural gas supplies.
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27/11/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India - The Militant Name Game
A group calling itself the Deccan Mujahideen claimed responsibility for the attacks in Mumbai, India, on Nov. 26. Though the name Deccan Mujahideen has not been used by an Islamist militant group in India before, the new name does not necessarily mean the group itself is new.
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27/11/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India - An Update on Mumbai
As militants continued holding hostages at the Taj Hotel, Oberoi Tower and Nariman (Chabad) House in Mumbai, India, Indian police said they expect operations in Mumbai to continue all day Nov. 27, IBN reported. Thus far, 101 people — including at least nine foreigners — have been reported dead
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27/11/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Red Alert: Possible Geopolitical Consequences of the Mumbai Attacks
Summary- If the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants as it appears, the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the United States into the fray.
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27/11/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India: The Need to React
Summary- A massive and well-organized attack by militants in Mumbai, India, has left nearly 100 people dead so far, promises to cut deeply into India’s foreign investment prospects and threatens to rock India’s government. As India responds to the attack, its relationship with Pakistan will be front and center, and the potential for a destabilization of relations between the two geopolitical rivals is high.
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26/11/2008 | Frente Externo
Obama Asks Robert Gates To Stay On
On Tuesday, the media began reporting leaks from U.S. President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team, saying that Robert Gates has been asked to stay on as secretary of defense and that he agreed to do so.
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26/11/2008 | Frente Externo
Obama Asks Robert Gates To Stay On
On Tuesday, the media began reporting leaks from U.S. President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team, saying that Robert Gates has been asked to stay on as secretary of defense and that he agreed to do so.
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25/10/2008 | En Parrilla
China's Silence on Land Reform
The financial crisis that has engulfed the Western world is beginning to exert its pull on China. For the fourth day in a row, the Communist Party, after emerging from its high-profile policy conference Oct. 12, has failed to publish its conclusions on the subject of land reform.
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25/10/2008 | En Parrilla
China's Silence on Land Reform
The financial crisis that has engulfed the Western world is beginning to exert its pull on China. For the fourth day in a row, the Communist Party, after emerging from its high-profile policy conference Oct. 12, has failed to publish its conclusions on the subject of land reform.
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22/10/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
The Kremlin's 'Anti-Crisis' Power Move
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on Monday that it would offer about 387 billion rubles (US$14.7 billion) in short-term loans to the Russian banking sector. The move is part of an “anti-crisis” package President Dmitri Medvedev signed into law Oct. 13. While ostensibly meant to ensure the immediate liquidity of its smaller banks, the measures appear to be part of Russia’s broader agenda to consolidate state control.
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22/10/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
The Kremlin's 'Anti-Crisis' Power Move
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on Monday that it would offer about 387 billion rubles (US$14.7 billion) in short-term loans to the Russian banking sector. The move is part of an “anti-crisis” package President Dmitri Medvedev signed into law Oct. 13. While ostensibly meant to ensure the immediate liquidity of its smaller banks, the measures appear to be part of Russia’s broader agenda to consolidate state control.
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15/10/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia - Moscow and the G-7
As the G-7 meets in Washington on Oct. 10 to decide future strategy regarding the global economic crisis, the group – comprised of the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Japan, Italy France and Germany — is holding a private session with its former member that helped make up the G-8: Russia. Since Russia’s August war with Georgia, Russia has in essence become persona non grata among the G-7.
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15/10/2008 | En Profundidad
Lingering Questions and the Triumph of Nationalism
As of this moment, it appears that the weekend round of intense discussions among G7 and G20 leaders has ended with a general commitment to use extensive state power to resolve the financial crisis, but without a common plan and without even a common methodology.
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15/10/2008 | Frente Externo
China - The Party Plenum and the Urban-Rural Gap
The global economic slowdown has forced the Communist Party of China Plenum to split its focus between rural reform and maintaining growth on its coast in a bid to stave off China’s own economic and political crisis.
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15/10/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia - Moscow and the G-7
As the G-7 meets in Washington on Oct. 10 to decide future strategy regarding the global economic crisis, the group – comprised of the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Japan, Italy France and Germany — is holding a private session with its former member that helped make up the G-8: Russia. Since Russia’s August war with Georgia, Russia has in essence become persona non grata among the G-7.
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15/10/2008 | En Profundidad
Lingering Questions and the Triumph of Nationalism
As of this moment, it appears that the weekend round of intense discussions among G7 and G20 leaders has ended with a general commitment to use extensive state power to resolve the financial crisis, but without a common plan and without even a common methodology.
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15/10/2008 | Frente Externo
China - The Party Plenum and the Urban-Rural Gap
The global economic slowdown has forced the Communist Party of China Plenum to split its focus between rural reform and maintaining growth on its coast in a bid to stave off China’s own economic and political crisis.
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11/10/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S. Reconciliation With the Taliban as an 'Exit Strategy'
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said on Thursday that the United States would be prepared for a reconciliation with the Taliban if the Afghan government chose to pursue talks to end the war.
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11/10/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S. Reconciliation With the Taliban as an 'Exit Strategy'
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said on Thursday that the United States would be prepared for a reconciliation with the Taliban if the Afghan government chose to pursue talks to end the war.
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08/10/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
The Credit Crunch's Effects Outside the United States
Markets the world over were hammered on Monday by bad economic news out of Europe, Japan and the United States. All of the world’s largest stock indexes plummeted, with the U.S. S&P 500 closing down 3.85 percent, the British FTSE plunging 7.85 percent, Germany’s DAX dropping 7.07 percent and Japan’s NIKKEI falling 4.25 percent. Even crude oil lost $5 a barrel.
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08/10/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
The Credit Crunch's Effects Outside the United States
Markets the world over were hammered on Monday by bad economic news out of Europe, Japan and the United States. All of the world’s largest stock indexes plummeted, with the U.S. S&P 500 closing down 3.85 percent, the British FTSE plunging 7.85 percent, Germany’s DAX dropping 7.07 percent and Japan’s NIKKEI falling 4.25 percent. Even crude oil lost $5 a barrel.
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20/09/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia's Stock Market Woes
The Russian markets plunged on Tuesday before government authorities halted trading on the exchange an hour early; the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange fell 17 percent, and the dollar-denominated Russian Trading System (RTS) fell 12 percent.
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20/09/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iranian Diplomacy in the Caucasus
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Wednesday visited Georgia, where he met with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. During the visit, Mottaki told the Georgian leader that Tehran was closely observing the ongoing events in the Caucasus and that his country wants stability and security in the region restored.
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20/09/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia's Stock Market Woes
The Russian markets plunged on Tuesday before government authorities halted trading on the exchange an hour early; the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange fell 17 percent, and the dollar-denominated Russian Trading System (RTS) fell 12 percent.
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20/09/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iranian Diplomacy in the Caucasus
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Wednesday visited Georgia, where he met with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. During the visit, Mottaki told the Georgian leader that Tehran was closely observing the ongoing events in the Caucasus and that his country wants stability and security in the region restored.
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14/09/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Angola - Oil and a Bid to Become a Geopolitical Powerhouse
French President Nicolas Sarkozy will visit Angola on May 23. While a number of business deals are expected to be reached during the visit, Angola is mainly interested in the capability of the French energy company Total to extract the country’s reserves contained in ultradeep fields.
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14/09/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Angola - Net Assessment
Following a protracted civil war that lasted from its 1975 independence until 2002, Angola is only now emerging as a player on the regional stage in sub-Saharan Africa. Flush with oil wealth and with its internal power recently consolidated, Luanda is now pursuing two key geopolitical imperatives: solidifying its control over the country to shut out the re-emergence of internal challengers, and pushing to rival South Africa and Nigeria as a regional hegemon.
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14/09/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Angola - Oil and a Bid to Become a Geopolitical Powerhouse
French President Nicolas Sarkozy will visit Angola on May 23. While a number of business deals are expected to be reached during the visit, Angola is mainly interested in the capability of the French energy company Total to extract the country’s reserves contained in ultradeep fields.
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14/09/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Angola - Net Assessment
Following a protracted civil war that lasted from its 1975 independence until 2002, Angola is only now emerging as a player on the regional stage in sub-Saharan Africa. Flush with oil wealth and with its internal power recently consolidated, Luanda is now pursuing two key geopolitical imperatives: solidifying its control over the country to shut out the re-emergence of internal challengers, and pushing to rival South Africa and Nigeria as a regional hegemon.
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08/08/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Georgian troops fire rockets at separatist South Ossetian troops
The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
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08/08/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Georgian troops fire rockets at separatist South Ossetian troops
The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
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27/07/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China - ETIM and the Olympic Games
As a large-scale secessionist movement in the making, the Uighur threat is overplayed by the Chinese, who view the various Uighur groups as more unified than they really are. Still, as China works with Central and South Asian governments to clamp down on Uighur militants outside of Xinjiang, a more significant threat might be emerging from the international jihadist movement, which could soon be targeting China.
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27/07/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China - The Evolution of ETIM
The East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is at the top of China’s most-wanted list of terrorist organizations. The group has a long and varied history. Its most recent incarnation was in the late 1990s, when the group tried to gain the support of Uighur communities at home and abroad. Failing that, it turned first to the Taliban in Afghanistan and then to the jihadist movement in Pakistan.
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27/07/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China - ETIM's Direct Threat to the Olympics
The Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) — another name for China’s Islamic Party of East Turkistan militant group — has claimed responsibility for the July 21 bus bombings in Yunnan and several other incidents around the country. The group has also said militants are trained and deployed to attack critical targets in major Chinese cities during the Olympics. The claims of responsibility appear exaggerated, but the threat TIP poses cannot be ignored.
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27/07/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Cuba and a Return to the Russian-U.S. Tug-of-War
For the past week, a series of stories and denials have been published in the Russian media surrounding a possible plan for Russia to relocate a refueling base in Cuba and resume flights of Russia’s Tu-160 “Blackjack” and Tu-95 “Bear” nuclear-capable strategic bombers back into the Western Hemisphere.
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27/07/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China - ETIM and the Olympic Games
As a large-scale secessionist movement in the making, the Uighur threat is overplayed by the Chinese, who view the various Uighur groups as more unified than they really are. Still, as China works with Central and South Asian governments to clamp down on Uighur militants outside of Xinjiang, a more significant threat might be emerging from the international jihadist movement, which could soon be targeting China.
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27/07/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China - The Evolution of ETIM
The East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is at the top of China’s most-wanted list of terrorist organizations. The group has a long and varied history. Its most recent incarnation was in the late 1990s, when the group tried to gain the support of Uighur communities at home and abroad. Failing that, it turned first to the Taliban in Afghanistan and then to the jihadist movement in Pakistan.
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27/07/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China - ETIM's Direct Threat to the Olympics
The Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) — another name for China’s Islamic Party of East Turkistan militant group — has claimed responsibility for the July 21 bus bombings in Yunnan and several other incidents around the country. The group has also said militants are trained and deployed to attack critical targets in major Chinese cities during the Olympics. The claims of responsibility appear exaggerated, but the threat TIP poses cannot be ignored.
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27/07/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Cuba and a Return to the Russian-U.S. Tug-of-War
For the past week, a series of stories and denials have been published in the Russian media surrounding a possible plan for Russia to relocate a refueling base in Cuba and resume flights of Russia’s Tu-160 “Blackjack” and Tu-95 “Bear” nuclear-capable strategic bombers back into the Western Hemisphere.
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04/07/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Colombia - Looking Ahead After a Wily Rescue
Emboldened by its stunning July 2 rescue of several high-profile captives from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the government will begin looking ahead toward the next step in its security campaign: eliminating the drug trade as a whole.
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04/07/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
China - Electricity Price Hikes Kick In
Recently approved electricity price increases have started taking effect in China. They will not be sufficient to eliminate all brownouts (a common summer phenomenon in China), but they should be enough to skim off some marginal peak-hour users, lessen brownouts and buffer the losses that power-generating companies have been suffering as a result of rising coal prices.
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04/07/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia - Medvedev's Whistle Stop Tour
New Russian President Dmitri Medvedev on July 3 began a short tour of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan on his way to the July 7 G8 summit in Japan. The tour illustrates Moscow’s desire to consolidate its influence over countries that are strategically important to Russia.
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04/07/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Colombia - Looking Ahead After a Wily Rescue
Emboldened by its stunning July 2 rescue of several high-profile captives from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the government will begin looking ahead toward the next step in its security campaign: eliminating the drug trade as a whole.
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04/07/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
China - Electricity Price Hikes Kick In
Recently approved electricity price increases have started taking effect in China. They will not be sufficient to eliminate all brownouts (a common summer phenomenon in China), but they should be enough to skim off some marginal peak-hour users, lessen brownouts and buffer the losses that power-generating companies have been suffering as a result of rising coal prices.
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04/07/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia - Medvedev's Whistle Stop Tour
New Russian President Dmitri Medvedev on July 3 began a short tour of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan on his way to the July 7 G8 summit in Japan. The tour illustrates Moscow’s desire to consolidate its influence over countries that are strategically important to Russia.
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12/05/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Intelligence Guidance - Week of May 11, 2008
1. Oil: This remains a central feature of the global system to watch. The rise of oil above $120 a barrel in spite of some strengthening of the dollar is a potentially critical factor. Every time we look at some element that will bring down the price of oil, we are surprised by its resilience.
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17/04/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
China - China National Offshore Oil Corp. Moves Inland
China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC), the third-largest state energy player in China, bought 80 percent of a private oil firm in the eastern province of Zhejiang, China Daily reported April 16. The move gives CNOOC a head start in its plan to buy several private firms in the refining and distribution sectors.
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17/04/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
A Wheat Fungus and the Potential Food Crisis
A fungus that affects wheat growth has spread beyond East Africa into southern parts of the Middle East. Given the coming monsoon season, it could spread to South Asia — potentially causing a major disruption of wheat production. At a time when supplies are already down, the spread of this fungus could create a global crisis.
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25/03/2008 | Frente Externo
The Olympics and Beijing's Tibet Paranoia
Immediately after meeting with Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee in Washington on Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice repeated her call for the Chinese government to talk directly with the Dalai Lama to resolve unrest in Tibet.
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24/03/2008 | Frente Externo
Cuba - Travel Restrictions and Domestic Unrest
The Cuban government is considering easing foreign travel restrictions on Cubans, the island country’s foreign minister said March 20. While the statements will help ease discontent in the short term, economic reforms will be needed to keep a lid on unrest in the long term.
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24/03/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia - Energy Consolidation and Lashing London
Russia’s Federal Security Bureau (FSB) on March 19 raided the Moscow offices of the BP joint venture in Russia, TNK-BP. Russian authorities on March 20 arrested a BP employee and a man linked to the British Council, on charges of industrial espionage. The latter arrests signal a move beyond mere Russian energy consolidation toward Moscow lashing out at London in the Cold War mold.
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18/03/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
México - Jalisco Takes Center Stage
In response to Mexico’s widespread drug-related violence, federal forces oversaw several small security operations in various parts of the country. Police in Chiapas state began a security clampdown in several cities to search for suspects in a narcotics-tied murder in that southern state.
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18/03/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Yemen - Twin Bombings Signal a Possible Jihadist Revival
An attack against the U.S. Embassy in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa and another strike against a Yemeni government compound elsewhere in the country March 18 appear to have been the work of Yemen’s resurging jihadist insurgency. Yemen is ripe for a jihadist resurgence, but that would severely hamper the country’s attempts to attract international investment.
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10/03/2008 | Frente Externo
China - Hu's Push for an Energy Powerhouse
Despite recent rumors that Beijing’s plans for a new energy law had been put on hold, the government will unveil its proposal for an energy megaministry at the March 11 legislative session, the South China Morning Post has reported, citing a source close to the plan. Chinese President Hu Jintao could be trying to bypass key legislative barriers to the creation of the powerful energy ministry.
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07/03/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Israel - Hezbollah and the Yeshiva Attack
A group called the “Galilee Freedom Battalions — the Martyrs of Imad Mughniyah” has claimed responsibility for the March 6 shooting at a yeshiva in Jerusalem, Hezbollah’s Al Manar television reported. Though the attack does not bear the hallmarks of Hezbollah, Israel now has an excuse to engage the radical Shiite group in a military confrontation in Lebanon.
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22/02/2008 | Frente Externo
Iraq, Iran and Oil Diplomacy
Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani said on Tuesday that Iraq and Iran will set up a joint committee soon to manage oil development in the two states’ southern border region, according to the Baghdad-based Al-Sabah daily. Most of Iraq and Iran’s oil is concentrated in this border area, and developing the fields that straddle the border would revitalize oil output in both countries.
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22/02/2008 | En Parrilla
Raul Castro's Brazilian Lifeline
The announcement that Fidel Castro is stepping down as Cuba’s leader has raised the question of Cuba’s future. One hint of what Cuba’s successors are thinking comes from Brazil. A major Brazilian newspaper, Folha de Sao Paulo, has been carrying a series of articles by columnist Kennedy Alencar, an international journalist with close contacts in the government of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva.
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22/02/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Hezbollah Retribution: Beware the Ides of March
Following the Feb. 12 assassination of Imad Mughniyah, one of Hezbollah’s top military commanders, many threats and warnings have been issued concerning a retribution attack against Israel, which has been blamed for — or credited with — the attack. The threats have come from Hezbollah and Iranian leaders, while the warnings have come from the Israeli and U.S. governments.
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18/02/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
Sao Tome and Principe - Taking Charge of the Energy Sector
The president of Sao Tome and Principe, Fradique de Menezes, appointed opposition leader Patrice Trovoada as prime minister, according to Feb. 15 media reports. Though he heads the opposition Independent Democratic Action party, Trovoada and the president are thought to be cronies — meaning his appointment should consolidate presidential control over the country’s small but potentially rich and strategically located energy sector.
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18/02/2008 | Frente Externo
Africa, U.S. - Security and Bush's Africa Tour
U.S. President George W. Bush leaves Feb. 15 for a trip to Africa that will take him to Benin, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ghana and Liberia. While these nations are not of immense strategic importance to the United States, visiting them still will advance U.S. diplomatic and security strategy in the region. Publicly, Bush probably will discuss HIV/AIDS, democracy and development strategies. Privately, security in Africa’s eastern, central, Sahel and Gulf of Guinea regions will dominate the agenda.
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18/02/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
China - Mining the Possibilities of Rio Tinto
The Aluminum Corp. of China (Chinalco) will consider bidding for a majority stake in the Rio Tinto Group should another company attempt a Rio Tinto takeover, a Stratfor source said Feb. 18. Chinalco’s interest in Rio Tinto is consistent with Beijing’s policy of snapping up global energy assets — but more than aluminum is at stake here.
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16/02/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Mughniyah Assassination Guessing Game
Imad Mughniyah, a Hezbollah leader who is believed to have planned the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon, and a series of other attacks around the world, was killed by a car bomb in Damascus, Syria, on Tuesday.
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13/02/2008 | En Parrilla
Venezuela - PDVSA Attempts to Get Even
Venezuelan oil major Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) has said it will “paralyze” all commercial contact with U.S. supermajor ExxonMobil. But because PDVSA has more capacity at its refining assets at home and abroad than it has oil to put in them, the threat does not amount to much.
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12/02/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
An Espionage Arrest and Counterintelligence Questions
Dongfan Chung, an engineer, was arrested in Los Angeles on Monday for economic espionage and serving as an unregistered foreign agent. According to the charges filed against him, Chung had been engaged in espionage since 1979, when he worked for Rockwell International, providing the Chinese with technical intelligence on the B-1 bomber.
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09/02/2008 | En Parrilla
The International Implications of a McCain Presidency
Mitt Romney withdrew from the U.S. presidential race on Thursday, handing the Republican nomination for the presidency to John McCain in all but fact. The remaining candidates for the nomination simply lack the national appeal to be more than a minor nuisance to a strengthening McCain campaign.
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05/01/2008 | Economía y Finanzas
The Real Reasons Behind High Oil Prices
An oil trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange purchased a barrel of oil at a price above $100 for the first time ever Jan. 2. In inflation-indexed terms the all-time record for crude oil was set in 1979 — at approximately $110 a barrel in today’s dollars.
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30/12/2007 | Frente Externo
Pakistan - The Implications of Bhutto’s Assassination
Benazir Bhutto, leader of Pakistan’s largest political party and the country’s former two-time prime minister, was assassinated on Thursday. Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) could have emerged as the largest party in parliament in the Jan. 8 elections. She was one of the three pillars of the government the United States was working to put together in its efforts to stabilize Islamabad.
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30/12/2007 | En Parrilla
Thailand - Political Rumors and Noise
One week before the People Power Party (PPP) is set to announce Thailand’s new coalition government, current Defense Minister Boonrawd Somtas said Dec. 28 that he is just as powerless to rule out a coup in 2008 as he is to rule out a natural disaster.
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30/12/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia, Serbia - The Calculations Behind an Energy Takeover
Russian natural gas giant Gazprom is pressuring Serbia to sign an agreement handing over the majority stake in the Serbian state-owned oil and natural gas company Nafta Industrija Srbije (NIS) by Dec. 25, according to Stratfor sources. Russia is interested in controlling Serbia, not only politically but also economically. If successful, the tactic — one of the Kremlin’s favorites — would assure that Serbian acquiescence to Moscow’s demands will not be fleeting.
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27/12/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan - Bhutto's Assassination
Top Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Dec 27. Reports of rioting and arson are coming in from all across the country, with most of the unrest occurring in the Sindh and Punjab provinces.
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21/11/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Indonesian-Australian Security Pact - A Boon for Canberra
The Indonesian parliament almost unanimously passed the Indonesian-Australian security pact Nov. 14. Although the deal has yet to receive approval from Canberra, its passage is practically guaranteed. An intact Indonesia is central to Australia's fundamental security and would deprive Canberra's potential enemies of the chance to foment unrest in its backyard.
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21/11/2007 | Frente Externo
Bangladesh - The Coming Storm
A massive hurricane will hit Bangladesh in a few hours. Given its magnitude and direction, and the geopolitical conditions in the country, the hurricane could result in large-scale devastation, especially from a supply chain perspective. The South Asian nation is routinely hit by storms -- but this is going to be a big one.
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21/11/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nigeria: The Splintering of MEND
A dynamite explosion damaged an oil pipeline Nov. 15 at Royal Dutch/Shell's Forcados terminal in Nigeria's Delta state. The bombing occurred just three days after a group of 60 gunmen aboard eight boats attacked the ExxonMobil-operated Qua Iboe terminal in the Niger Delta state of Akwa Iboe.
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21/11/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Germany, China - A Portent of a Trade War?
German Finance Minister Peer Steinbruck was forced to cancel his planned December visit to China because China's finance minister has refused to meet with him. The reason given for China’s snub is far from the real reason.
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21/11/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Europe - A New Pipeline, a Different Direction
The first Russia-independent natural gas pipeline from the Caspian region to Europe opened Nov. 18. The Turkey-Greece Interconnector (TGI) has been in the works for several years, and construction on the line's final section connecting to Italy under the Adriatic Sea is scheduled to start in early 2008, with completion anticipated by 2012. The pipeline has a capacity of 11.5 billion cubic meters per year.
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21/11/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
China - The Oil Firms Thwart Beijing's Wishes
Chinese state oil companies have been diverting funds toward precisely the type of lending Beijing is trying to eliminate as it seeks to calm the country's overheated economy, which primarily is fueled by excessively cheap credit and a dearth of profitable investment options.
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21/11/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Germany - A New Pattern Among Potential School Attackers
A school in the northern German town of Kaarst was closed Nov. 20 after police there received a tip from Finnish authorities that an attack could be in the works.
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11/11/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Brazil - The Benefits of a Mammoth Oil Find
Brazil's mammoth offshore oil find, projected to hold as much as 8 billion barrels of light crude, gives the country the world's eighth-largest reserve of oil and increases its reserves by 40 percent.
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10/11/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Global Market - Oil Prices and the Dollar's Decline
Crude oil prices reached a record high of $96.37 a barrel Nov. 6; the same day, the U.S. dollar fell to $1.4731 to the euro -- the lowest level since the euro started trading in January 1999 -- after a high-ranking Chinese official's statement that China should convert more of its enormous dollar reserves to euros.
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30/10/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Canada - Oil Sands Tax Increase
The government of the Canadian province of Alberta approved a raft of measures to increase the tax take from oil sands (**)late Oct. 25. Under the new rules, the tax on extraction before the investment break-even point will rise from 1 percent to 9 percent, and after costs are recouped, the rate will rise from a flat 25 percent to a sliding rate of as much as 40 percent based on the price of oil.
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04/10/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
The Kurdish Oil Reality
Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) said on Tuesday that it is moving ahead with oil development in its region, independent of Baghdad's oil policies. To be more precise, since the Baghdad government hasn't passed laws enabling an oil policy, the Kurds have decided to take steps on their own.
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28/09/2007 | Frente Externo
Kazakhstan - End of an Era
The Kazakh parliament approved a measure Sept. 26 empowering the government to re-fabricate any contract it desires. If implemented, the decision will mark the end of Kazakhstan's oil-fueled economic growth.
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16/09/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Trans-Atlantic Militant Connection
Authorities on both sides of the Atlantic arrested a total of four people Sept. 12 in connection with a plot to stage jihadist attacks against Austria and Germany. Earlier in the month, Danish authorities arrested eight people on suspicion of plotting attacks in Denmark, and a day later German authorities arrested three people on suspicion of plotting to attack U.S. and Uzbek targets in Germany. Counterterrorism officials in Europe and the United States believe the plots in Germany and Denmark are related.
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16/09/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
A Korean Model for Iraq?
U.S. President George W. Bush addressed the nation on Thursday, announcing his decision to enact the recommendations of Gen. David Petraeus, top commander of U.S. forces in Iraq.
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08/09/2007 | Transparencia
China - Corruption and Centralization
China has taken another step to centralize its domestic grip with the creation of a National Corruption Prevention Agency. The difference between this watchdog and Beijing's previous efforts is that the new agency will answer directly to the State Council -- not to multiple local governments notorious for their often shady dealings.
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06/09/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Petraeus' Perplexing Press Leaks
U.S. Gen. David Petraeus will deliver his report on the Iraq war to Congress in a little over a week. Obviously, the general briefed President George W. Bush during Bush's surprise trip to Iraq's Anbar province Sept. 3. Petraeus' report is undoubtedly either already written or in its final stages.
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30/08/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
China - Product Quality, Reform and the Rule of Law
The head of China's new Cabinet-level leading group on product quality and safety has launched a campaign against poor product safety and regulations.
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26/08/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Geopolitical Diary: Russia Rewrites the Post-Cold War Rule Book
Georgia has accused Russia of violating its airspace again. According to Georgia, its radar recently tracked a Russian aircraft penetrating Georgian airspace near Abkhazia -- a pro-Russian breakaway region and an area of substantial Georgian-Russian tension.
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22/08/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
The Looming Central Asian Battleground
After 16 years of relative quiescence, Central Asia is about to become a major field of competition between the Russians and the Chinese. Over the weekend, the Chinese government sealed a series of energy deals with the governments of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Airy promises of cooperation on the windswept Asian steppe are about as common as cold winters, but these deals are different.
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22/08/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Europe Loosens The Energy Ties That Bind To Russia
European reliance on the Russian Federation for natural gas supplies -- to the tune of nearly 150 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2006, or roughly one-fourth of total European natural gas consumption -- has long been one of Moscow's chief levers of influence over European policy and, as such, a key plank in the Kremlin's emerging geopolitical strategy.
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22/08/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Strategy and Process
The executive summary of a report by the CIA's Office of the Inspector General was declassified and released on Tuesday. Originally published in 2005, the report states that senior CIA officials "did not discharge their responsibilities in a satisfactory manner" when dealing with the al Qaeda threat prior to 9/11.
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21/08/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Psychological War Games With Iran
U.S. Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, commander of forces south of Baghdad, said on Sunday that about 50 members of an elite unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were training Shiite militias in his area of responsibility, which includes the Iran-Iraq border. Lynch said his troops had not captured any Iranians or illegal weapons during two months of patrolling in the area, but was confident in his intelligence about the trainers, promising to go after them as well as their trainees.
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11/08/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Syria: The Risks of Iraqi Cooperation
Syria is enjoying soaking up the spotlight thanks to playing host to the Aug. 8-9 international security conference over Iraq. Though Damascus is getting a good taste of the international recognition it craves, it will pay the price for cooperation on Iraqi security by inviting jihadist attacks on Syrian soil.
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08/08/2007 | En Parrilla
Brazil - Philips Joins The 'Tired'
Cansei, a new campaign born from the recent TAM Flight 3054 crash in Brazil and intended to harness public outrage over government failures at all levels, could introduce a new degree of corporate involvement into the relationship between the government and the public. It will face significant obstacles to maintaining credibility as a nonpartisan movement, however.
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14/07/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S. Weaknesses Spell Possible Iranian Concessions over Iraq
U.S. Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) and Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) announced their support Wednesday for Democratic legislation requiring a strict timetable for troop reductions in Iraq. Snowe called the current strategy "unacceptable." Congressional dissatisfaction with the Iraq war is hardly a new theme, but events in the past 72 hours have signaled a major shift in the power politics of Washington.
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02/05/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Iraq Security Conference: Hanging a Deal on Faulty Assumptions
After weeks of playing hard to get, Iran announced April 29 that Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will attend the May 3-4 conference in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, where Iraq's neighboring states and major world powers will explore ways to stabilize Iraq.
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02/05/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Iraq Security Conference: Hanging a Deal on Faulty Assumptions
After weeks of playing hard to get, Iran announced April 29 that Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will attend the May 3-4 conference in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, where Iraq's neighboring states and major world powers will explore ways to stabilize Iraq.
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20/04/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Venezuela - Sweetening the Rhetoric on Brazilian Ethanol
At the April 16-17 South American Energy Summit, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez toned down his rhetoric against ethanol. In making this conciliatory gesture toward Brazil, Chavez is trying to avoid a serious rift between Caracas and Brasilia that might undermine his regional ambitions. However, he is likely to continue to work behind the scenes against U.S.-Brazilian ethanol cooperation.
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20/04/2007 | Frente Externo
Russia's Grand Strategy for the East
North Korea is counting on Russia to forgive its $8.8 billion debt, RIA Novosti reported on Wednesday, citing Konstantin Pulikovsky, who oversees economic discussions between Moscow and Pyongyang as the Russian co-chair of an intergovernmental commission. In comments to the Russian state news agency, Pulikovsky called the debt issue -- which has resurfaced several times since talks between the two countries were revived in March after a six-year hiatus -- a "political one" that falls "within the scope of the countries' top leadership."
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20/04/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Venezuela - Sweetening the Rhetoric on Brazilian Ethanol
At the April 16-17 South American Energy Summit, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez toned down his rhetoric against ethanol. In making this conciliatory gesture toward Brazil, Chavez is trying to avoid a serious rift between Caracas and Brasilia that might undermine his regional ambitions. However, he is likely to continue to work behind the scenes against U.S.-Brazilian ethanol cooperation.
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20/04/2007 | Frente Externo
Russia's Grand Strategy for the East
North Korea is counting on Russia to forgive its $8.8 billion debt, RIA Novosti reported on Wednesday, citing Konstantin Pulikovsky, who oversees economic discussions between Moscow and Pyongyang as the Russian co-chair of an intergovernmental commission. In comments to the Russian state news agency, Pulikovsky called the debt issue -- which has resurfaced several times since talks between the two countries were revived in March after a six-year hiatus -- a "political one" that falls "within the scope of the countries' top leadership."
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18/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Brazil - Crime, Deployments and Staying Power in Rio
The governor of Rio de Janeiro state will meet with ministers from Brazil's federal government April 16 to request the deployment of federal troops to combat crime in the southeastern Brazilian state. If approved, deploying troops could reduce some of the lawlessness plaguing the state -- provided the political will exists to leave the troops in place long enough.
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18/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Morocco - Casablanca's Second-String Bombers
The U.S. Consulate in Casablanca, Morocco, was closed again April 17 in response to two April 14 suicide bombings near the Dar America cultural center and the U.S. Consulate. The bombers displayed poor tactics and inadequate planning, demonstrating that the recent crackdown in Casablanca has seen many of the more experienced militants behind the attacks taken out of circulation.
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18/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Brazil - Crime, Deployments and Staying Power in Rio
The governor of Rio de Janeiro state will meet with ministers from Brazil's federal government April 16 to request the deployment of federal troops to combat crime in the southeastern Brazilian state. If approved, deploying troops could reduce some of the lawlessness plaguing the state -- provided the political will exists to leave the troops in place long enough.
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18/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Morocco - Casablanca's Second-String Bombers
The U.S. Consulate in Casablanca, Morocco, was closed again April 17 in response to two April 14 suicide bombings near the Dar America cultural center and the U.S. Consulate. The bombers displayed poor tactics and inadequate planning, demonstrating that the recent crackdown in Casablanca has seen many of the more experienced militants behind the attacks taken out of circulation.
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16/04/2007 | Frente Externo
Nigeria - Obasanjo Secures His Successor
Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo is working to ensure that Umaru Yaradua will succeed him after the country's April 21 presidential election. Obasanjo is using his office's considerable powers to keep rival candidates divided and confused -- an unpopular tactic that Obasanjo's critics call undemocratic, but that will secure Yaradua's victory.
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16/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Thailand - Southern Violence and the Scapegoat Next Door
The Thai government is seeking a scapegoat to distract from its problems. It has settled upon Cambodian Muslims again.
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16/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia's Authoritarian Regime Shows Its Face
Anti-government protesters in Russia were forcefully and publicly dispersed in both Moscow and St. Petersburg over the weekend. The protests themselves were small in size and posed no threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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16/04/2007 | Frente Externo
Russia - Berezovsky's Bold Statement
Exiled Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky said April 13 he will begin working to trigger a revolution to overthrow the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Assuming he lives long enough to try it, Berezovsky is not the man to crack the Kremlin monolith.
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16/04/2007 | Frente Externo
Nigeria - Obasanjo Secures His Successor
Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo is working to ensure that Umaru Yaradua will succeed him after the country's April 21 presidential election. Obasanjo is using his office's considerable powers to keep rival candidates divided and confused -- an unpopular tactic that Obasanjo's critics call undemocratic, but that will secure Yaradua's victory.
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16/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Thailand - Southern Violence and the Scapegoat Next Door
The Thai government is seeking a scapegoat to distract from its problems. It has settled upon Cambodian Muslims again.
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16/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia's Authoritarian Regime Shows Its Face
Anti-government protesters in Russia were forcefully and publicly dispersed in both Moscow and St. Petersburg over the weekend. The protests themselves were small in size and posed no threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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16/04/2007 | Frente Externo
Russia - Berezovsky's Bold Statement
Exiled Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky said April 13 he will begin working to trigger a revolution to overthrow the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Assuming he lives long enough to try it, Berezovsky is not the man to crack the Kremlin monolith.
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14/04/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Second Quarter Forecast 2007: The Maneuvering Before the Storm - Part II
East Asia: Continuing to Look Inward
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14/04/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Brief - Uranium's Increasing Popularity -- and Price
Uranium prices rose 19 percent April 6 to $113 per pound (up from $95 per pound a week earlier), the largest single percentage increase on record since price monitoring began in 1968.
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14/04/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Second Quarter Forecast 2007: The Maneuvering Before the Storm - Part II
East Asia: Continuing to Look Inward
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14/04/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Brief - Uranium's Increasing Popularity -- and Price
Uranium prices rose 19 percent April 6 to $113 per pound (up from $95 per pound a week earlier), the largest single percentage increase on record since price monitoring began in 1968.
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13/04/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Second Quarter Forecast 2007: The Maneuvering Before the Storm - Part I
The second quarter of 2007 will brim with fury and froth as two states attempt to challenge the geopolitical order imposed by others to stem their expansion, in hopes of regaining their long-lost position as major powers. Throughout the quarter, these two states will seek a louder voice and a stronger hand. The real conflicts, however, will come later.
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13/04/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Second Quarter Forecast 2007: The Maneuvering Before the Storm - Part I
The second quarter of 2007 will brim with fury and froth as two states attempt to challenge the geopolitical order imposed by others to stem their expansion, in hopes of regaining their long-lost position as major powers. Throughout the quarter, these two states will seek a louder voice and a stronger hand. The real conflicts, however, will come later.
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11/04/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
China: The Continued Rise of the 'Responsible Stakeholder'
Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang elected Wu Poh-hsiung as its new chairman April 7, replacing former Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who resigned amid accusations of corruption.
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11/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia: Siberian Oil, Regional Influence and Pipeline Delays
Russia's planned oil pipeline to the Pacific Ocean will run behind schedule. The pipeline, also called Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO), undoubtedly will change regional dynamics when it finally becomes operational, though its completion will be an expensive and time-consuming process.
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11/04/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
China: The Continued Rise of the 'Responsible Stakeholder'
Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang elected Wu Poh-hsiung as its new chairman April 7, replacing former Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who resigned amid accusations of corruption.
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11/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia: Siberian Oil, Regional Influence and Pipeline Delays
Russia's planned oil pipeline to the Pacific Ocean will run behind schedule. The pipeline, also called Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO), undoubtedly will change regional dynamics when it finally becomes operational, though its completion will be an expensive and time-consuming process.
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04/04/2007 | Frente Externo
Pakistan, India and the Annual SAARC Talkfest
The 14th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit kicks off in New Delhi on April 3. Though the summit is bound to be another stagnant affair, newcomers to the organization, including Afghanistan, China and Iran, will add some spice to the India-Pakistan rivalry.
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04/04/2007 | Frente Externo
China - Rural Migration and Plugging the Rural-Urban Gap
As China's leaders struggle with the social effects of a widening rural-urban gap, the issue of China's "hukou," or household registration system, has re-entered the spotlight.
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31/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Brazil - Burgeoning Militia 'Governments' in the Slums of Rio
Illegal militias control more than 80 of the approximate 600 slums, known as favelas, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Beginning in the 1980s, the militias ran out drug traffickers and criminal gangs in many favelas.
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30/03/2007 | Frente Externo
Castro's Letter -- Fuel for Thought
A letter signed by Cuban leader Fidel Castro, titled "More Than 3 Billion People in the World Condemned to Premature Death from Hunger and Thirst," circulated in the media Thursday.
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30/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka - The Tigers Take Wing
Sri Lanka's Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam confirmed March 26 that its air force dropped explosives on the Katunayake air base near Sri Lanka's capital, Colombo. The small-scale air raid's psychological effects will be much greater than the military cost to Sri Lanka.
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30/03/2007 | Frente Externo
China - The Front-runner Moves to Shanghai
The Communist Party of China (CPC) on March 24 appointed Xi Jinping, former Party secretary of the coastal Zhejiang province, as Party secretary of Shanghai.
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30/03/2007 | Frente Externo
Russia: Mixing Oil and Politics
The finale of Russia's bankrupt oil company Yukos began March 27 with the auction of the last of its assets. Competition over the assets between two large companies -- Russia's oil mammoth Rosneft and natural gas giant Gazprom -- has gotten fierce and is beginning to fracture Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle.
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28/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S.: A Look at Offensive Cyberwarfare
Cyberwarfare operations should include offensive measures, according to Marine Gen. James Cartwright, head of the U.S. Strategic Command, which is responsible for network warfare. This could mark a substantive expansion of U.S. cyberwarfare efforts already under way -- but most of them will not be available for public consumption.
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20/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India: The Escalating Naxalite Threat
Indian Maoist rebels, known as Naxalites, attacked a police post in the jungles of the central-western state of Chhattisgarh on March 15, killing approximately 50 policemen. The attack is one of the worst in the insurgency's nearly four-decade history and is part of the Naxalites' move to escalate operations.
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20/03/2007 | Frente Externo
Looking Ahead to China's Next Leadership Transition
China's National People's Congress (NPC) finished its session March 16 with the passage of a new private property law, a new corporate tax law and speculation that Premier Wen Jiabao will not serve a second term.
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20/03/2007 | Frente Externo
Nigeria: Oil and the Presidency
A hearing at the Federal High Court of Abuja to consider Nigerian Vice President Atiku Abubakar's disqualification from Nigeria's presidential election was postponed March 19 by one day.
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20/03/2007 | Frente Externo
Chile's Push into Central America
Chilean President Michelle Bachelet met with Guatemalan President Oscar Berger on March 18-19 to discuss bilateral accords, including an actively pursued free trade agreement. While in Guatemala, Bachelet also attended a forum for the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), where she announced the creation of an IADB fund to finance development and provide aid for some of the poorest Latin American nations.
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15/03/2007 | Frente Externo
U.S.-Mexican Relations Changing
U.S. President George W. Bush is scheduled to meet with Mexican President Felipe Calderon on Tuesday in Mexico -- the last stop of Bush's Latin American tour.
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15/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Ecuador - Will the Civil Crisis Remain Civil?
Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 declined to decide whether to reinstate 57 legislators dismissed March 7 by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. This leaves the country with an unresolved crisis regarding legitimate authority -- a situation in which the military could intervene.
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15/03/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
China: The Responsible Stakeholder's Overseas Operations
A People's Liberation Army (PLA) delegate to the Chinese National People's Congress (NPC) suggested March 12 that the NPC draft a law regulating military operations overseas.
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08/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iranian Secrets on the Loose?
Ali Reza Askari, a former aide to the Iranian defense minister and a retired general with long service in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has been missing since Feb. 7.
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08/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia: The Speculation About Thallium Poisoning
The U.S. Embassy in Russia confirmed March 7 that two American women, Marina Kovalevsky and her daughter, Yana, were hospitalized in Moscow for possible thallium poisoning.
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08/03/2007 | En Parrilla
U.S., Latin America: The President Tours a Divided Region
U.S. President George W. Bush is beginning a weeklong tour of Latin America, a region of countries that have chosen either political populism or political moderation.
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08/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico: A Rise in Killings in Sonora State
Three police officers were killed March 6 in Mexico's Sonora state, the latest in a spate of drug-related slayings in this relatively quiet state.
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01/03/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Methyl Hydrates as a Potential in the Global Energy Industry
Japan will begin test drilling and extracting methyl hydrates -- natural gas trapped in frozen water -- in March. If the technology to harvest and utilize natural gas is successful, it could transform the face of the energy industry by making a globally abundant form of natural gas available to countries currently dependent on imports.
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28/02/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
China's Engineered Drop
China's Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 8.84 percent Feb. 27, its largest fall in a decade. Its sister index, the Shenzhen Composite Index, fell 8.54 percent. The size of the drop in China is not significant in and of itself. On a number of occasions during the past year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has experienced 5 percent plus daily reductions, and it has already boomed and busted once this decade.
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27/02/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico's Newest Criminal Refuge
Mexican Federal Police said Feb. 22 they have recovered the bodies of two men they believe were killed in an attack related to organized crime in Aguascalientes state. The discovery comes amid a wave of violence in the once-peaceful state as criminals shift their operations in response to a federal crackdown in other areas.
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27/02/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico's Newest Criminal Refuge
Mexican Federal Police said Feb. 22 they have recovered the bodies of two men they believe were killed in an attack related to organized crime in Aguascalientes state. The discovery comes amid a wave of violence in the once-peaceful state as criminals shift their operations in response to a federal crackdown in other areas.
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27/02/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan's Domestic Stability
While returning from East Asia on Feb. 26, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney made a surprise stopover in Islamabad, where he met with Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf. The same day, British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett also met with Musharraf, urging him to control the Taliban traffic along the Afghan-Pakistani border.
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27/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Iraqi Oil Law Legislation Approved
The Iraqi Cabinet approved draft legislation on Monday for a new oil law, giving the United States a new claim to success in its nation-building efforts for Iraq. The division of oil revenues between Iraq's Kurdish and Shiite factions is critical to the formation of a comprehensive political resolution in the country.
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27/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Chen's Subtle Policy Shifts
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian met Wednesday with American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Stephen Young and U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot, co-chair of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus in Taipei. During the talks, Chen reiterated his stance that only Taiwan's 23 million citizens have the right to decide whether the nation's future lies in unification with China.
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27/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Venezuela: A Foray into Punitive Diplomacy
Tensions between Costa Rica and Venezuela escalated following an announcement Feb. 21 by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez that a Venezuelan-owned aluminum plant in Costa Rica will be closed.
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27/02/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Syria's Russian Connection
The Israeli daily Haaretz reported Thursday that Syria is strengthening its army "in an unprecedented way" and massing troops near the border with Israel along the Golan Heights.
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08/02/2007 | En Parrilla
Ukraine: Keeping Its Pipelines out of Russia's Reach
The Ukrainian Rada adopted a law Feb. 6 that forever prevents the country's natural gas transport pipelines from falling into foreign hands.
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08/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Abe's Quest for Domestic Support
Public approval of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has fallen to 40.3 percent, according to a weekend poll conducted by Kyodo News.
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08/02/2007 | En Parrilla
Ukraine: Keeping Its Pipelines out of Russia's Reach
The Ukrainian Rada adopted a law Feb. 6 that forever prevents the country's natural gas transport pipelines from falling into foreign hands.
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08/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Abe's Quest for Domestic Support
Public approval of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has fallen to 40.3 percent, according to a weekend poll conducted by Kyodo News.
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07/02/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico: Violence Crossing the Line in Acapulco
Two Canadian tourists suffered minor injuries Feb. 4 when they were struck by stray bullets in an apparent drive-by shooting in Acapulco, Mexico.
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07/02/2007 | Frente Externo
China: Reining in the Regions With Environmentalism
Recent government announcements indicate China will significantly step up its efforts to rein in small unregulated energy utilities. On Jan. 23, Beijing said it would consolidate ownership of the nation's coal plants into six or eight entities.
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07/02/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico: Violence Crossing the Line in Acapulco
Two Canadian tourists suffered minor injuries Feb. 4 when they were struck by stray bullets in an apparent drive-by shooting in Acapulco, Mexico.
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07/02/2007 | Frente Externo
China: Reining in the Regions With Environmentalism
Recent government announcements indicate China will significantly step up its efforts to rein in small unregulated energy utilities. On Jan. 23, Beijing said it would consolidate ownership of the nation's coal plants into six or eight entities.
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05/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Nigeria: Election Season and Delta Violence
Nigerian militants put 24 Philippine hostages on display Feb. 1 and demanded the release of imprisoned militant leader Mujahid Dokubo-Asari.
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05/02/2007 | En Parrilla
Why a Natural Gas Cartel Would Not Work
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposed Jan. 29 that Russia and Iran join forces to form a natural gas cartel similar to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
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05/02/2007 | Frente Externo
U.S. Climate Policy: Defining the Second Commitment Period
Discussions of climate change have reached a frenzied level in Washington, D.C. The number of bills proposing different ways to address the issue is growing by the week -- four bills have been introduced since Jan. 10, and at least three more are rumored to be coming over the next two months.
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05/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Thailand: The Likely Dissolution of the TRT
In a Feb. 1 speech at the Hat Yai campus of Thailand's Prince of Songkhla University, Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the head of the ruling Council for National Security, suggested that the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra could soon be disbanded.
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05/02/2007 | Frente Externo
India: Pakistan's Exposed Intelligence-Gathering Operation
Indian authorities claimed Feb. 2 to have caught a Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy in the act of transmitting national security information to Pakistan from an Internet café in the northern Indian city of Varanasi.
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05/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Nigeria: Election Season and Delta Violence
Nigerian militants put 24 Philippine hostages on display Feb. 1 and demanded the release of imprisoned militant leader Mujahid Dokubo-Asari.
................................................................................................................................
05/02/2007 | En Parrilla
Why a Natural Gas Cartel Would Not Work
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposed Jan. 29 that Russia and Iran join forces to form a natural gas cartel similar to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
................................................................................................................................
05/02/2007 | Frente Externo
U.S. Climate Policy: Defining the Second Commitment Period
Discussions of climate change have reached a frenzied level in Washington, D.C. The number of bills proposing different ways to address the issue is growing by the week -- four bills have been introduced since Jan. 10, and at least three more are rumored to be coming over the next two months.
................................................................................................................................
05/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Thailand: The Likely Dissolution of the TRT
In a Feb. 1 speech at the Hat Yai campus of Thailand's Prince of Songkhla University, Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the head of the ruling Council for National Security, suggested that the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra could soon be disbanded.
................................................................................................................................
05/02/2007 | Frente Externo
India: Pakistan's Exposed Intelligence-Gathering Operation
Indian authorities claimed Feb. 2 to have caught a Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy in the act of transmitting national security information to Pakistan from an Internet café in the northern Indian city of Varanasi.
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05/02/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S.: Arrest in 'The Bishop' Case
U.S. law enforcement agencies in Dubuque, Iowa, on April 25 arrested a man they believe to be "The Bishop," a suspect who has sent improvised explosive devices to financial services companies through the mail. Authorities describe the suspect as a 42-year-old former postal worker.
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05/02/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S.: Arrest in 'The Bishop' Case
U.S. law enforcement agencies in Dubuque, Iowa, on April 25 arrested a man they believe to be "The Bishop," a suspect who has sent improvised explosive devices to financial services companies through the mail. Authorities describe the suspect as a 42-year-old former postal worker.
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02/02/2007 | Frente Externo
China's Concerns in 2007: Fears of a Perfect Storm
The year 2007 is an important one for China's leadership. At the National People's Congress (NPC) session in March, the government is likely to enact legislation equalizing the status of private property with state property and addressing the imbalance in tax rates between foreign and domestic businesses -- both moves designed to encourage domestic Chinese entrepreneurship.
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02/02/2007 | Frente Externo
China's Concerns in 2007: Fears of a Perfect Storm
The year 2007 is an important one for China's leadership. At the National People's Congress (NPC) session in March, the government is likely to enact legislation equalizing the status of private property with state property and addressing the imbalance in tax rates between foreign and domestic businesses -- both moves designed to encourage domestic Chinese entrepreneurship.
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01/02/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Canada, Chile: Unions, Strikes and Commodity Prices
Setbacks for two major mining operations in Chile and Canada in negotiations with unions on Jan. 29-31 highlight the growing influence of mining unions as global commodity prices have continued to rise with demand.
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01/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Britain's Timely Terrorism Arrests
Nine suspects were arrested in Birmingham, England, on Jan. 31 in a plot that reportedly involved kidnapping a British Muslim soldier and then posting a video of his torture and gruesome death on the Internet.
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01/02/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
Canada, Chile: Unions, Strikes and Commodity Prices
Setbacks for two major mining operations in Chile and Canada in negotiations with unions on Jan. 29-31 highlight the growing influence of mining unions as global commodity prices have continued to rise with demand.
................................................................................................................................
01/02/2007 | Frente Externo
Britain's Timely Terrorism Arrests
Nine suspects were arrested in Birmingham, England, on Jan. 31 in a plot that reportedly involved kidnapping a British Muslim soldier and then posting a video of his torture and gruesome death on the Internet.
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31/01/2007 | En Parrilla
Hu's Visit to Africa: More Deals than Diplomacy
Chinese President Hu Jintao begins an eight-nation tour of Africa on Jan. 30. Although Hu's itinerary will include opportunities for China to refute accusations that its interests in Africa are reminiscent of colonial behavior, his trip is expected to be mostly about closing deals and making friends, consistent with previous Chinese visits to Africa.
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31/01/2007 | En Parrilla
Hu's Visit to Africa: More Deals than Diplomacy
Chinese President Hu Jintao begins an eight-nation tour of Africa on Jan. 30. Although Hu's itinerary will include opportunities for China to refute accusations that its interests in Africa are reminiscent of colonial behavior, his trip is expected to be mostly about closing deals and making friends, consistent with previous Chinese visits to Africa.
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25/01/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Ecuador: A Midair Collision and Correa's Balancing Act
Ecuadorian Defense Minister Guadalupe Larriva died Jan. 24 when the military helicopter she was riding had a midair collision with another military helicopter.
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25/01/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Ecuador: A Midair Collision and Correa's Balancing Act
Ecuadorian Defense Minister Guadalupe Larriva died Jan. 24 when the military helicopter she was riding had a midair collision with another military helicopter.
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23/01/2007 | En Profundidad
2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part I
In 2006, the U.S.-jihadist war appeared to reduce itself to the scope of Iraq and to be transformed into a U.S.-Iranian confrontation. Hopes of a political settlement blew apart in the middle of the year, focusing global attention on the outcome in Iraq.
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23/01/2007 | En Profundidad
2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part II
The most significant development in Europe in the year 2006, as we expected in our last annual forecast, was Germany's re-emergence as a major global power. Under Chancellor Angela Merkel, Berlin seized the mantle of European leadership from Paris and has been the mover and shaker of European politics.
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23/01/2007 | En Profundidad
2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part I
In 2006, the U.S.-jihadist war appeared to reduce itself to the scope of Iraq and to be transformed into a U.S.-Iranian confrontation. Hopes of a political settlement blew apart in the middle of the year, focusing global attention on the outcome in Iraq.
................................................................................................................................
23/01/2007 | En Profundidad
2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part II
The most significant development in Europe in the year 2006, as we expected in our last annual forecast, was Germany's re-emergence as a major global power. Under Chancellor Angela Merkel, Berlin seized the mantle of European leadership from Paris and has been the mover and shaker of European politics.
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10/01/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China: Exploiting the Uighur 'Terrorist Camp' Raid
Chinese state media reported Jan. 9 on the "thousands" of people who turned out for the funeral of a Chinese police officer killed in a shootout four days earlier with suspected Uighur Islamist militants in Xinjiang. The coverage, part of a media blitz to bring attention to the destruction of an alleged terrorist base in western China, serves both domestic and international public relations purposes.
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10/01/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China: Exploiting the Uighur 'Terrorist Camp' Raid
Chinese state media reported Jan. 9 on the "thousands" of people who turned out for the funeral of a Chinese police officer killed in a shootout four days earlier with suspected Uighur Islamist militants in Xinjiang. The coverage, part of a media blitz to bring attention to the destruction of an alleged terrorist base in western China, serves both domestic and international public relations purposes.
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03/01/2007 | Economía y Finanzas
China: Aftershocks from the Crash
Global markets continued to suffer in the aftermath of the Chinese-instigated Feb. 27 stock market crash. The Feb. 28 fallout, however, is only indirectly related to the previous day's problems. In the meantime, the Chinese themselves are quickly backing away from their new tool to generate financial panic.
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30/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Global Market Brief
Vietnam formally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Dec. 28, not long after the fifth anniversary of Chinese WTO membership Dec. 11. Although China enjoys a reputation as a land of limitless investment opportunity, Vietnam holds much of the same investment promise.
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30/12/2006 | En Parrilla
Serving Up Dolly: Implications of an FDA Ruling
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has announced that it has no safety concerns about food products made from cloned animals.
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30/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions
Germany will assume the six-month presidency of the European Union on Jan. 1, 2007.
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30/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Global Market Brief
Vietnam formally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Dec. 28, not long after the fifth anniversary of Chinese WTO membership Dec. 11. Although China enjoys a reputation as a land of limitless investment opportunity, Vietnam holds much of the same investment promise.
................................................................................................................................
30/12/2006 | En Parrilla
Serving Up Dolly: Implications of an FDA Ruling
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has announced that it has no safety concerns about food products made from cloned animals.
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30/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions
Germany will assume the six-month presidency of the European Union on Jan. 1, 2007.
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23/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Turkmenistan: The Battle to Follow Turkmenbashi's Death
Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov, known to his countrymen as Turkmenbashi, died Dec. 21 at the age of 66. His departure creates a power vacuum and sets off a mad scramble that pits two erstwhile allies against each other -- and this is just the beginning.
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23/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov unexpectedly died of a heart attack on Thursday. The death of the autocratic and eccentric Niyazov -- also known by his grandiose self-bestowed name "Turkmenbashi" or "father of all Turkmen" -- provides Iran with a unique opportunity to secure its northern border and gain a stronger foothold in energy-rich Turkmenistan.
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23/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
The Dec. 21 death of Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov left a power vacuum in the country. Russia had as much influence over the ruler as one can exert over an egomaniacal eccentric despot; now, Russia has the most to gain from controlling Turkmenistan -- and the best chance at succeeding.
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23/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
The new rumor out of Russia is that Gazprom plans to pay cash to take over majority control of the Sakhalin-2 energy project in the Russian Far East. For the foreign firms involved, a bad deal just keeps getting worse.
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23/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
In mid-2005, former Mexican President Vicente Fox sent some 1,500 soldiers and federal police to the U.S.-Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo in an effort to bring escalating drug-related violence under control.
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23/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Turkmenistan: The Battle to Follow Turkmenbashi's Death
Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov, known to his countrymen as Turkmenbashi, died Dec. 21 at the age of 66. His departure creates a power vacuum and sets off a mad scramble that pits two erstwhile allies against each other -- and this is just the beginning.
................................................................................................................................
23/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov unexpectedly died of a heart attack on Thursday. The death of the autocratic and eccentric Niyazov -- also known by his grandiose self-bestowed name "Turkmenbashi" or "father of all Turkmen" -- provides Iran with a unique opportunity to secure its northern border and gain a stronger foothold in energy-rich Turkmenistan.
................................................................................................................................
23/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
The Dec. 21 death of Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov left a power vacuum in the country. Russia had as much influence over the ruler as one can exert over an egomaniacal eccentric despot; now, Russia has the most to gain from controlling Turkmenistan -- and the best chance at succeeding.
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23/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
The new rumor out of Russia is that Gazprom plans to pay cash to take over majority control of the Sakhalin-2 energy project in the Russian Far East. For the foreign firms involved, a bad deal just keeps getting worse.
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23/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
In mid-2005, former Mexican President Vicente Fox sent some 1,500 soldiers and federal police to the U.S.-Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo in an effort to bring escalating drug-related violence under control.
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20/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
Two car bombs exploded Dec. 18 at foreign oil company compounds in the Niger Delta city of Port Harcourt, Nigeria. The attacks occurred shortly after the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) militant group told officials it would detonate three car bombs in the region. The bombings are aimed at demonstrating MEND is still a force in the region.
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20/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
Russia could cut off natural gas supplies to Belarus on Jan. 1 if the two are unable to agree upon a contract for delivery and pricing.
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20/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
Two car bombs exploded Dec. 18 at foreign oil company compounds in the Niger Delta city of Port Harcourt, Nigeria. The attacks occurred shortly after the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) militant group told officials it would detonate three car bombs in the region. The bombings are aimed at demonstrating MEND is still a force in the region.
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20/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
Russia could cut off natural gas supplies to Belarus on Jan. 1 if the two are unable to agree upon a contract for delivery and pricing.
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16/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
A Saudi Power Struggle?
The sands are shifting in the Saudi kingdom, but the direction is still unclear.
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16/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
Russia has increased natural gas prices for Belarus and imposed duties on crude exports, sabotaging Belarus' energy balance and financial health. Minsk will attempt to rectify the situation by opening the country's industry to foreign investment.
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16/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
Dec. 13 saw the launch of yet another campaign in the United States for a new national energy policy, this one led by Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE). The coalition is headed by a combination of former U.S. defense and foreign policy leaders and a long list of corporate chief executives.
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16/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
A Saudi Power Struggle?
The sands are shifting in the Saudi kingdom, but the direction is still unclear.
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16/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
Russia has increased natural gas prices for Belarus and imposed duties on crude exports, sabotaging Belarus' energy balance and financial health. Minsk will attempt to rectify the situation by opening the country's industry to foreign investment.
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16/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
Dec. 13 saw the launch of yet another campaign in the United States for a new national energy policy, this one led by Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE). The coalition is headed by a combination of former U.S. defense and foreign policy leaders and a long list of corporate chief executives.
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15/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
With another election under his belt, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez appears destined to remain in power until at least 2013 -- and, if his attempts to amend the constitution to abolish term limits succeed, perhaps even longer.
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15/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia's Plans for Iran
The director of Russia's state nuclear fuel exporting firm, Atomstroyexport, announced on Tuesday that his company will begin preparing to transport Russian-fabricated nuclear fuel to Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant -- which was also built by the Russians -- in January 2007. He estimated that Bushehr will become operational approximately six months after the fuel arrives in March.
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15/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
Mexican President Felipe Calderon sent 6,500 federal police and troops to his home state of Michoacan on Dec. 12 in a bid to restore government control over an area that has witnessed some of the most brutal acts of violence at the hands of drug cartels.
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15/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
With another election under his belt, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez appears destined to remain in power until at least 2013 -- and, if his attempts to amend the constitution to abolish term limits succeed, perhaps even longer.
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15/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia's Plans for Iran
The director of Russia's state nuclear fuel exporting firm, Atomstroyexport, announced on Tuesday that his company will begin preparing to transport Russian-fabricated nuclear fuel to Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant -- which was also built by the Russians -- in January 2007. He estimated that Bushehr will become operational approximately six months after the fuel arrives in March.
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15/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
Mexican President Felipe Calderon sent 6,500 federal police and troops to his home state of Michoacan on Dec. 12 in a bid to restore government control over an area that has witnessed some of the most brutal acts of violence at the hands of drug cartels.
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12/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
The latest U.S. Army budget plan submitted to the Pentagon ends the Army's next-generation Land Warrior program and includes deep cuts to the Future Combat Systems (FCS) program.
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12/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
After 16 months of lobbying and debate, U.S. President George W. Bush is set to sign a landmark civilian nuclear deal with India into law on Monday. The move comes as Congress is preparing to wrap up its lame-duck session -- and as the administration is searching for a much-needed foreign policy success.
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12/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Calderon's Presidential Challenges
Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who took office Dec. 1, began his term on unsteady ground. He faces an unresolved conflict in the southern state of Oaxaca, was inaugurated amid a physical brawl in the legislature, is troubled by widespread questioning of his legitimacy after his July 2 election win by a razor-thin margin, and continues to be publicly challenged by his defeated opponent, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who established a "shadow" government.
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12/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
The latest U.S. Army budget plan submitted to the Pentagon ends the Army's next-generation Land Warrior program and includes deep cuts to the Future Combat Systems (FCS) program.
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12/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
After 16 months of lobbying and debate, U.S. President George W. Bush is set to sign a landmark civilian nuclear deal with India into law on Monday. The move comes as Congress is preparing to wrap up its lame-duck session -- and as the administration is searching for a much-needed foreign policy success.
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12/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Calderon's Presidential Challenges
Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who took office Dec. 1, began his term on unsteady ground. He faces an unresolved conflict in the southern state of Oaxaca, was inaugurated amid a physical brawl in the legislature, is troubled by widespread questioning of his legitimacy after his July 2 election win by a razor-thin margin, and continues to be publicly challenged by his defeated opponent, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who established a "shadow" government.
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05/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
Wednesday was a tumultuous day in and around Iraq. U.S. President George W. Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki were supposed to meet in Jordan, but the meeting was postponed until Thursday, without a coherent explanation from the White House for the delay.
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05/12/2006 | Frente Externo
The Venezuelan Vote
Incumbent President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela was elected to another six-year term on Sunday, amid widespread allegations of irregularities. Preliminary results showed Chavez captured 61.35 percent of the vote to opposition challenger Manuel Rosales' 38.39 percent, with 73 percent of the votes tallied. Rosales conceded the election late Sunday evening -- though contending that the margin was inaccurately reported by the National Electoral Council (CNE).
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05/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
EU and Kazakhstani representatives agreed Dec. 4 to EU-funded feasibility studies of new infrastructure projects to bring Kazakhstani energy to Europe. Changes in politics and economics are driving the warming relationship.
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05/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
Wednesday was a tumultuous day in and around Iraq. U.S. President George W. Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki were supposed to meet in Jordan, but the meeting was postponed until Thursday, without a coherent explanation from the White House for the delay.
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05/12/2006 | Frente Externo
The Venezuelan Vote
Incumbent President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela was elected to another six-year term on Sunday, amid widespread allegations of irregularities. Preliminary results showed Chavez captured 61.35 percent of the vote to opposition challenger Manuel Rosales' 38.39 percent, with 73 percent of the votes tallied. Rosales conceded the election late Sunday evening -- though contending that the margin was inaccurately reported by the National Electoral Council (CNE).
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05/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
EU and Kazakhstani representatives agreed Dec. 4 to EU-funded feasibility studies of new infrastructure projects to bring Kazakhstani energy to Europe. Changes in politics and economics are driving the warming relationship.
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02/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
India's economic growth surged during the second quarter of the current fiscal year to stand at 9.2% in annual terms, although the blistering rate also fanned fears that the economy may be overheating.
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02/12/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
India's economic growth surged during the second quarter of the current fiscal year to stand at 9.2% in annual terms, although the blistering rate also fanned fears that the economy may be overheating.
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29/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
India unveiled the ongoing development of an indigenous anti-missile system Nov. 27, following the Nov. 24 announcement by Pakistan and China that the two nations will collaborate on an airborne early warning surveillance system.
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29/11/2006 | Frente Externo
Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
Militias of the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) reinforced the central Somalian town of Abudwaaq on Nov. 27 to seal off the region from Ethiopian forces bogged down by flooding farther south. War between Ethiopia and the SICC remains imminent, though not likely before the rainy season ends in mid-December.
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29/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
India unveiled the ongoing development of an indigenous anti-missile system Nov. 27, following the Nov. 24 announcement by Pakistan and China that the two nations will collaborate on an airborne early warning surveillance system.
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29/11/2006 | Frente Externo
Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
Militias of the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) reinforced the central Somalian town of Abudwaaq on Nov. 27 to seal off the region from Ethiopian forces bogged down by flooding farther south. War between Ethiopia and the SICC remains imminent, though not likely before the rainy season ends in mid-December.
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22/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
The United Kingdom's Scotland Yard confirmed Nov. 20 that the poisoning of Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko is being treated as a deliberate act. Litvinenko, who was granted asylum in the United Kingdom in 2001, fell ill Nov. 1 after he ingested thallium, a toxic metal found in rat poison, at a sushi bar.
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22/11/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
As the Kremlin tightens its grip on energy assets within Russia, Russian private oil company LUKoil said it will invest $27 billion by 2017 in foreign acquisitions.
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22/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
The United Kingdom's Scotland Yard confirmed Nov. 20 that the poisoning of Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko is being treated as a deliberate act. Litvinenko, who was granted asylum in the United Kingdom in 2001, fell ill Nov. 1 after he ingested thallium, a toxic metal found in rat poison, at a sushi bar.
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22/11/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
As the Kremlin tightens its grip on energy assets within Russia, Russian private oil company LUKoil said it will invest $27 billion by 2017 in foreign acquisitions.
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18/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
U.S. President George W. Bush, on his way to Singapore, made a brief stop in Moscow on Wednesday morning to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin over a breakfast of herring, beets, tongue and caviar. Bush reportedly is more of a granola man, but he appears to have had more important things on his agenda than the food.
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18/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
U.S. President George W. Bush, on his way to Singapore, made a brief stop in Moscow on Wednesday morning to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin over a breakfast of herring, beets, tongue and caviar. Bush reportedly is more of a granola man, but he appears to have had more important things on his agenda than the food.
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17/11/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Global Market Brief- What the Gazprom - ENI Deal Does -- and Does Not -- Mean
Italian energy major ENI announced a bilateral deal with Russian state energy giant Gazprom on Nov. 14 that will grant Gazprom the right to supply 3 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas a year directly to Italian customers by 2010 -- the firm's first-ever unrestricted access to downstream European customers.
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16/11/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Industry's New Stake in Kyoto
Negotiators in Nairobi, Kenya, are preparing to wrap up two weeks of discussions about the future of international cooperation on climate change. The conference -- officially the second meeting of parties to the Kyoto Protocol -- gathered to discuss what comes after Kyoto, which will not be in force after 2012.
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14/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India, Pakistan: Al Qaeda and the Airport Threat
India's airports are on high alert Nov. 13 in the wake of two messages purportedly from al Qaeda. The messages contained threats of car bombings at airports and hijackings on U.S.-bound planes departing India.
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13/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
INDIA - The Abduction of a High-Tech Executive's Son
The 3-year-old son of Naresh Gupta, a senior vice president at Adobe India, was kidnapped Nov. 13 while he waited for a school bus with the family's maid in the New Delhi suburb of Noida.
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11/11/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
CHINA - Blocking Investment to Promote Stability
China published its 11th five-year plan for capitalizing on foreign investment Nov. 9. Until now, Beijing has publicized initiatives to curb foreign investment in order to cool the economy and ensure measured growth. Now that these plans have been formalized, more initiatives to block foreign investment will emerge as the Chinese Communist Party tries to bolster its legitimacy by redirecting its economic focus away from China's already-prosperous coast.
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11/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S., Russia: The Politics Behind the WTO Talks
After 13 years of unsuccessful attempts, Russia and the United States completed their bilateral negotiations for Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization on Nov. 10.
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11/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Colombia's Multifaceted Security Problem
Colombia's Supreme Court issued arrest warrants Nov. 9 for three high-ranking lawmakers suspected of conspiring with right-wing paramilitary forces in the country.
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08/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
MEXICO - Jumping on the Oaxaca Bandwagon
An umbrella group composed of five armed revolutionary organizations claimed responsibility for the Nov. 6 bombings in Mexico City. In a Nov. 7 Internet statement, the coalition said it will continue to detonate bombs and expand attacks to target 40 national and multinational corporations throughout Mexico as long as Ulises Ruiz remains governor of Oaxaca state. And as the government cracks down on protests, as it recently did in Oaxaca, the movement probably will only grow stronger -- and extend its attacks beyond Mexico City.
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07/11/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Global Market Brief
Japan's Local Debt Problem:Japan's Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy suggested Oct. 25 ending Tokyo's implicit guarantee of municipal debt. Chaired by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the council is meant to advise Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs. This proposal resulted from discussions the council has had since August on how to prevent local governments from running up unsustainable levels of debt.
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07/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mexico City Bombings: An Escalation in Tensions
Just after midnight Nov. 6, emergency officials in Mexico City received two telephone calls from an unknown source warning that bombs were about to detonate.
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04/11/2006 | Frente Externo
AUSTRIA - The Kidnapping Plot Against a Crystal Heiress
Austrian authorities are continuing their investigation into a thwarted plot to kidnap crystal heiress Fiona Swarovski, the wife of Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser.
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04/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iraq Without Bechtel
Bechtel Corp., a global engineering firm, announced Thursday that it is wrapping up its work in Iraq and not seeking any further contracts (its last contract expired last week).
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01/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Europe: The Taliban's Broadening Scope
In an interview conducted on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and aired on the United Kingdom's Sky News on Oct. 23, a shadowy Taliban commander directly threatened Europe with militant attacks for its role in supporting the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan. Though Taliban probably are not able to pull off such an attack outside of South Asia, the threat is serious and shows that the Taliban are thinking on a new level.
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31/10/2006 | En Parrilla
BOLIVIA - BRAZIL: La Paz's Natural Gas Dilemma
The Bolivian government trumpeted Oct. 28 the renegotiation of all standing agreements with foreign companies operating in its natural gas sector. All but one, that is; and the one continuing to say no holds the key to Bolivia's future.
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31/10/2006 | Frente Externo
MEXICO - A Mexican Standoff Worsens
Mexican federal police advanced into the center of Oaxaca City on Sunday, firing tear gas and water cannons at protesters who have been camping there for months.
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31/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
HONDURAS-Honduras' Operation Thunder: The Effort to Stem Rising Crime
The number of reported kidnappings involving the children of wealthy families in Honduras increased from three in 2005 to 18 during the first eight months of 2006. Despite a government crackdown on crime, a lasting solution to the problem is unlikely -- leaving potential victims to fend for themselves.
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28/10/2006 | Frente Externo
BRAZIL-Strength in Victory, Weakness in Office
Recent polls show incumbent Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva leading opponent Geraldo Alckmin with at least 61 percent of the vote ahead of Brazil's Oct. 29 presidential runoff.
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28/10/2006 | Frente Externo
BANGLADESH - Conditions Conducive to a Coup?
Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia will turn over power on Oct. 27 to a caretaker government charged with overseeing Bangladesh's national election, scheduled for January 2007.
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24/10/2006 | Frente Externo
SUDAN-Khartoum Moves Against Foreign Intervention in Darfur
The expulsion of the U.N. special envoy to Sudan, Jan Pronk, on Oct. 23 is the latest in a series of moves by Khartoum to demonstrate its opposition to any foreign intervention aimed at resolving the Darfur crisis.
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24/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somalia's Islamists Court Mainstream Muslims
Somalia's Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) appears to have reached the limits of its control: On Saturday, the movement lost the city of Bur Hakaba to government troops.
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24/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
IRAQ- Big Plans, Major Obstacles, for the Oil Sector
Iraq's oil minister says his country plans to increase crude oil production to as much as 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2010 and that the government can get production to 4.0 million bpd without outside help. He went on to say that, with foreign assistance, Iraq hopes to produce 6.0 million bpd by 2012.
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24/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
IRAQ - The Coming Change in U.S. Strategy
Operation Together Forward, the U.S. effort to rein in violence in Baghdad, has not achieved its objectives and the United States is looking for a new solution, U.S. Army spokesman Maj. Gen. William Caldwell said Oct. 19.
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21/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Japan's Nuclear Message for China
Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said Wednesday that Japan should seriously discuss the possibility of developing nuclear weapons.
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21/10/2006 | Frente Externo
U.S.: Al Qaeda and the U.S. Midterm Elections
With U.S. midterm elections set for Nov. 7, some observers are speculating about the possibility of an al Qaeda attempt to influence the outcome by staging a major attack on U.S. soil or against U.S. interests overseas. Although another al Qaeda attack can never be ruled out, the jihadist network is unlikely to stage one for the purpose of influencing this election -- largely because such a timed attack would not serve its purposes.
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18/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 1
The fourth quarter of 2006 will be driven by a country we named as a wild card earlier this year: Iran. More precisely, the dynamics that previously were set in motion by Iran will be playing out through the end of 2006.
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18/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 2 - South Asia: Still Feeling the 'Washington Effect'
Our third-quarter forecast for South Asia was almost entirely accurate. Many of the core issues laid out in that forecast will continue to play out in the coming quarter.
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18/10/2006 | En Parrilla
The EU Scrambles for a Russia Policy
EU foreign ministers will meet Tuesday in an attempt to hammer out common positions on everything from Iran's nuclear program to their own expansion policy. There are not many areas that offer them easy solutions or compromises, yet the meeting is going to find a thread of connection among most of the problems currently vexing Europe. That thread is Russia.
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18/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Chemical Risk: Mass Storage and Transport as Weapons, Not Targets
More than half the residents of small Apex, N.C. (population 29,000) were forced to evacuate their homes after a fire broke out at a hazardous waste disposal facility late Oct. 5. Authorities ordered the evacuation of 17,000 people after it was reported that the fire was producing chlorine gas.
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18/10/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
RUSSIA - Sunset for Shtokman?
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said Oct. 9 that Russia's natural gas monopoly will not invite international companies to participate in the Shtokman natural gas project in the Barents Sea. Gazprom, however, lacks the technical expertise and financing needed to execute Shtokman -- hence the project is doomed. The decision is another example of the Kremlin attempting to use Russian energy resources to further Moscow's political aims.
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18/10/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
RUSSIA, BULGARIA, GREECE- The Pipe Dream Pipeline
Representatives from Russia, Bulgaria and Greece on Oct. 5 agreed on the ownership structure of a piece of a planned pipeline that would bypass the Turkish Straits. They could not have killed the project more effectively if they tried.
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14/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
IRELAND -The Latest 'Tiger Kidnapping' Trend
A so-called "tiger kidnapping" failed in Ireland on Oct. 11 when a relative of the intended victim confronted the kidnappers at a West Dublin home.
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14/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CHINA - Using Unions To Access Company Records
The All-China Federation of Trade Unions on Oct. 12 once again said it is aggressively targeting foreign companies for unionization. Although unionization in China is generally nonthreatening to businesses, the government plans to use unions not only to improve workers' conditions, but also to gain information on foreign companies' operations.
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14/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
PAKISTAN - Rockets, Coup Rumors and Musharraf
Pakistani authorities announced Oct. 13 the arrest of eight militants with ties to al Qaeda, being held in connection with attempted rocket attacks in and near Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.
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14/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
RUSSIA - Americans as Targets of Ultranationalist Street Gangs
Roaming street gangs believed to be comprised of young Russian ultranationalists have begun to attack American college students in Russia's major cities as part of a rising tide of racially motivated attacks.
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14/10/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
RUSSIA -The Kremlin's Hands-On Energy Policy
The Russian environmental agency, Rosprirodnadzor, is suing Royal Dutch/Shell, alleging that the oil supermajor has violated environmental regulations and failed to submit timely reports on its geological and prospecting work at the Sakhalin II natural gas venture.
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14/10/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
RUSSIA -The Kremlin Puts LUKoil Under Pressure
Russia's natural resources watchdog agency threatened Oct. 13 to revoke 20 of private Russian oil firm LUKoil's production licenses in the Western Siberian regions of Komi and Khanty-Mansi, saying LUKoil has committed numerous environmental safety violations there.
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07/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
North Korea: Beijing's Diminishing Power of Persuasion
As rumors of an imminent North Korean nuclear test continue to swirl, all eyes are turning once again to China to see if Beijing can or will intervene to dissuade Pyongyang from proceeding with a test.
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05/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nigeria: The Threat Against Bonny Island
The U.S. Consulate in Lagos, Nigeria, issued a Warden Message on Oct. 4 warning of a possible attack against targets on Bonny Island, home to one of the world's largest liquefied natural gas production plants. The threat comes on the heels of a new spate of kidnappings and killings in the Niger Delta after several weeks of relative calm in the oil-producing region.
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05/10/2006 | Frente Externo
Kuwait: Moving to Become an Oil Market-Mover?
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ali Jarrah al-Sabah said Oct. 4 that his country might follow Venezuela and Nigeria in cutting crude oil production to boost prices.
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05/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Dirty Bombs: Weapons of Mass Disruption
Since the 9/11 attacks catapulted al Qaeda to the top of the evil-doers' list in the United States, one constant question has remained: What is al Qaeda planning now? High among the public's fears, fanned by certain events widely reported in the media, is that the jihadist network or another like-minded group or individual will unleash a radiological dispersion device (RDD), commonly referred to as a "dirty bomb," on U.S. soil.
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29/09/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
SOMALIA - Ethiopia's Islamist Fears
The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) called Ethiopia's troop deployment to Somalia in defense of the Baidoa-based interim government a declaration of war Sept. 25.
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28/09/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
IRAN, RUSIA - A Nuclear Marriage of Convenience
Russia and Iran have signed a contract for the delivery of 80 tons of nuclear fuel to Iran's Bushehr facility, which is scheduled to be completed in September 2007. Russia appears to be in the process of finishing updating its military doctrine.
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27/09/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
SOUTH KOREA - Rethinking its Military Future
Delegations from the United States and South Korea will meet in Washington on Sept. 25 to discuss the expansion of defense industry ties and joint military research and development programs.
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27/09/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Hezbollah's Iranian Connection
Prior to the rise of the Shia in Iraq, Hezbollah -- as a radical Shiite Islamist organization -- was Iran's main asset in the Arab world. In fact, it likely will continue to be used by Tehran as a key tool for furthering Iranian geopolitical interests in the region, until such time as Shiite power has been consolidated in Baghdad and Iran's interests there secured.
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27/09/2006 | Frente Externo
MEXICO - Passing the Oaxacan Buck
Oaxacan Gov. Ulises Ruiz Ortiz asked Mexican President Vicente Fox on Sept. 26 to use federal force to re-establish order and resolve the months-old protests in his state.
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24/09/2006 | Frente Externo
THAILAND - A Possible Respite in Southern Violence
Three days before the Sept. 19 military coup that ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, six bombs exploded in the city of Hat Yai, in southern Thailand's Songkhla province, killing four people.
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23/09/2006 | En Parrilla
The World Bank at a Crossroads
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) ended their joint annual meeting in Singapore on Sept. 20. Among the most significant outcomes was the ratification of a change in the voting structure at the IMF. The move gives China, Turkey, South Korea and Mexico -- newly industrialized countries, in the Bretton Woods context -- significantly more power than before.
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23/09/2006 | Transparencia
KENYA - Corruption as Catalyst for Crime
Three gunmen attacked a U.S. Embassy officer as he drove to his home in Nairobi, Kenya, on Sept. 16. The assailants shot the officer through the window of his car, threw him in the backseat and sped away, robbing him of his valuables in the process.
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23/09/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
BOLIVIA - Military Bases in the Lowlands
The Bolivian Defense Ministry confirmed Sept. 21 that Bolivia -- with help from Venezuela -- will build at least two new military bases in the lowlands along Bolivia's borders with Brazil and Paraguay, where up to 2,500 elite troops will be trained for placement on the borders. This move is mostly intended as a message to the opposition movement in the lowlands, but it will have repercussions throughout the region.
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30/08/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
A Polite Meeting About Missiles
U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov met in Alaska on Sunday and Monday to preside over the opening of a new memorial commemorating U.S./Soviet cooperation during World War II.
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30/08/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
SRI LANKA- Strategic Potential on Hold
The periodic waves of violence that envelop Sri Lanka prevent it from realizing its full strategic potential, suggested by its location at the confluence of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean.
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27/08/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
EU: Energy Security and the Nuclear Genie
The European Union needs to keep nuclear power an option for electricity generation, EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs said Aug. 23. Piebalgs noted that nuclear power can help lower greenhouse emissions and that uranium-supplying countries pose less geopolitical risk than countries that supply fossil fuels.
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02/08/2006 | Frente Externo
CUBA - A New Castro Assumes the Old Power
Cuban leader Fidel Castro has announced that he is temporarily surrendering power to his brother Raul while recovering from extensive intestinal surgery performed July 31. This is the first such transfer during the leader's 47 years in power.
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02/08/2006 | Frente Externo
SOMALIA - Islamists and Clan Politics
Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, leader of the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia, said Aug. 1 that he has taken control of the central Somalian regions of Mugud and Galguduud.
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30/07/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S., India: Hammering Out a Nuclear Deal
On July 26, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation Promotion Act of 2006, thus advancing the legislation to the Senate. However, the Senate will find it difficult to reconcile domestic anti-proliferation concerns with Indian demands, and there is not much time to pass the bill before summer recess. The nuclear deal will eventually pass, but not before much debate takes place -- particularly over the legislation's Iranian proviso.
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30/07/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
AFRICA - Toward a Three-Way Conflict in the Horn of Africa
Somalian Transitional Federal Government's (TFG) constitution and federalism minister, Abdallah Deerow Isaaq, was killed July 28 in Baidoa, Somalia.
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28/07/2006 | Frente Externo
Chavez's World Tour
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez started a long tour around the world last week, seeking to promote Venezuela's candidacy for a seat on the U.N. Security Council (UNSC), purchase weapons and get photographed with a bunch of the United States' least favorite dignitaries.
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28/07/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Perception and Reality in the Oil Market
There is fighting in the Middle East, so oil will go through the roof. Right?
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23/07/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
MEXICO - Acapulco as a Main Front in the Drug Wars
Gunmen killed former Mexican legislator Juan Jose Nogueda on July 19 after abducting him from Acapulco's main beachside street in broad daylight.
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19/07/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
IRAN - Using the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict Advantageously
The United States on July 18 called on Iran and Syria to get Hezbollah to halt its rocket attacks against Israel. This is what Iran was hoping would happen when it got its Lebanese Shiite Islamist proxy to abduct the Israeli soldiers: that it would be able to enhance its sphere of influence in the region. The Arab states that are horrified by what they see as an Iranian invasion of their geopolitical turf will now try to work with Washington to minimize the extent to which Tehran can gain influence.
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15/07/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
The Economic Impact of an Israeli-Lebanese War
Israel is on the verge of invading Lebanon, launching a war that could engulf Syria as well. But the likely economic disruption is not where most would think.
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14/07/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder
Israel lives with three realities: geographic, demographic and cultural. Geographically, it is at a permanent disadvantage, lacking strategic depth.
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06/07/2006 | Frente Externo
SLOVAKIA - An Unlikely Coalition
After a few short days of savvy negotiating, a coalition made up of Slovakia's left-wing Smer-Socialist Democratic Party and two nationalist parties took over the government July 4. Though left-wing Europeans are aghast at such ideological blasphemy, Slovakia may well have its most stable government yet.
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06/07/2006 | Frente Externo
USA-The GOP Challenge: Retaining Religious Voters
The Rev. Jim Wallis, editor of Sojourners magazine, hosted a conference in Washington in late June for liberal religious activists who are looking for a stronger political voice in American politics.
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06/07/2006 | Frente Externo
BOLIVIA - A Highland Constitution and Lowland Discontent
Bolivian voters elected a constitutional assembly and voted in a referendum for increased provincial autonomy for Bolivia's states July 2.
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06/07/2006 | Frente Externo
MEXICO - Facing Its Greatest Democratic Test
Mexico's July 2 presidential election was the closest in the country's history. Conservative Felipe Calderon got an advantage in the preliminary vote count, which has just been ratified; the official tally gives Calderon a lead of about 0.56 percent over left-wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
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30/06/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Global Market Brief
Market report
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30/06/2006 | Frente Externo
Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
Mexicans will elect a new president and Congress on July 2. Thus far, the election season has been a bit anticlimactic compared to the 2000 campaign and election, when current President Vicente Fox was able to break 71 years of uninterrupted rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and win the presidency for his center-right National Action Party (PAN). Fox's main message during the 2000 campaign and election was one of change.
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30/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam implicitly apologized to India on June 27 for the 1991 assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, only to be rebuffed June 28 by both India and Sri Lanka. The Tigers are desperate to prevent relations from warming between New Delhi and Colombo as the Indian government incrementally moves toward increased involvement in the growing Sri Lankan conflict.
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30/06/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Global Market Brief
Market report
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30/06/2006 | Frente Externo
Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
Mexicans will elect a new president and Congress on July 2. Thus far, the election season has been a bit anticlimactic compared to the 2000 campaign and election, when current President Vicente Fox was able to break 71 years of uninterrupted rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and win the presidency for his center-right National Action Party (PAN). Fox's main message during the 2000 campaign and election was one of change.
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30/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam implicitly apologized to India on June 27 for the 1991 assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, only to be rebuffed June 28 by both India and Sri Lanka. The Tigers are desperate to prevent relations from warming between New Delhi and Colombo as the Indian government incrementally moves toward increased involvement in the growing Sri Lankan conflict.
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26/06/2006 | Frente Externo
China: Crisis and Implications
The Chinese government is continuing efforts to cope with its runaway economy. The People's Bank of China has raised interest rates. Banks have been told to curb lending.
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26/06/2006 | Frente Externo
China: Crisis and Implications
The Chinese government is continuing efforts to cope with its runaway economy. The People's Bank of China has raised interest rates. Banks have been told to curb lending.
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24/06/2006 | Frente Externo
UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
Ukraine got a new government Thursday -- President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party, the Bloc of Yulia Timoshenko and the Socialists signed a coalition agreement. After nearly three months of negotiations, Timoshenko has been reinstalled as prime minister
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24/06/2006 | Frente Externo
UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
Ukraine got a new government Thursday -- President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party, the Bloc of Yulia Timoshenko and the Socialists signed a coalition agreement. After nearly three months of negotiations, Timoshenko has been reinstalled as prime minister
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22/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
As the tension mounts over a possible North Korean ballistic missile test, the United States leaked indications Tuesday that it has activated its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system.
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22/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
As the tension mounts over a possible North Korean ballistic missile test, the United States leaked indications Tuesday that it has activated its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system.
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20/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced the resignation of Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick at a press conference Monday. Zoellick reportedly tendered his resignation a few days ago, though there has been speculation for at least a month that he was considering leaving.
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20/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
There was heightened speculation over the weekend about an impending North Korean missile launch. According to Japanese, South Korean and U.S. reports -- all citing various Japanese, South Korean and U.S. officials (most of them unnamed) -- North Korea has moved its Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile onto the gantry at the Musudan-ri launch facility and fueled the missile.
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20/06/2006 | Frente Externo
MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
Sixteen days before Mexico's presidential elections (Jun 15, 2006), the two leading candidates -- leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and conservative Felipe Calderon -- are still in a dead heat. Roberto Madrazo, the Institutional Revolutionary Party candidate, remains in third place but he is not so far behind that a Madrazo victory can be completely ruled out.
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20/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
German police clashed with a gang of soccer hooligans in Dortmund, Germany, on June 14, the day of a World Cup match between Poland and Germany. As the riot gear-clad police moved in, the fans began throwing bottles and fireworks. More than 30 fans were injured, and a police officer was badly bitten on the leg.
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20/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced the resignation of Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick at a press conference Monday. Zoellick reportedly tendered his resignation a few days ago, though there has been speculation for at least a month that he was considering leaving.
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20/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
There was heightened speculation over the weekend about an impending North Korean missile launch. According to Japanese, South Korean and U.S. reports -- all citing various Japanese, South Korean and U.S. officials (most of them unnamed) -- North Korea has moved its Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile onto the gantry at the Musudan-ri launch facility and fueled the missile.
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20/06/2006 | Frente Externo
MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
Sixteen days before Mexico's presidential elections (Jun 15, 2006), the two leading candidates -- leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and conservative Felipe Calderon -- are still in a dead heat. Roberto Madrazo, the Institutional Revolutionary Party candidate, remains in third place but he is not so far behind that a Madrazo victory can be completely ruled out.
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20/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
German police clashed with a gang of soccer hooligans in Dortmund, Germany, on June 14, the day of a World Cup match between Poland and Germany. As the riot gear-clad police moved in, the fans began throwing bottles and fireworks. More than 30 fans were injured, and a police officer was badly bitten on the leg.
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05/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Key Steps to Avoid Falling Victim to Crime
A 35-year-old man awaited trial in Alabama on June 5 following his indictment on five felony counts in connection with the armed abduction and sexual assault of Birmingham lawyer Sandra Eubank Gregory.
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04/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Self-Protection: Acquiring -- and Practicing -- the Necessary Skills (Part III)
Security professionals spend years acquiring and fine-tuning the skills they need to protect their charges. For various reasons, however, an executive might live and work without the benefit of a security detail. In that case, developing and practicing a self-protection plan is a viable option.
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03/06/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Cosmetic Change in China's Economy
China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, announced Wednesday that it will begin to withdraw from the country's currency market. The move, in theory, would allow investors to take a greater role in setting exchange rates.
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02/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Self-Protection: Analysis and Planning II
No one can be on red alert everywhere and at all times and still expect to live a satisfactory life. Even if one did live in a constant state of hypervigilance, it would be no guarantee of safety.
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02/06/2006 | Frente Externo
Mexico: Of Soccer and Electoral Strategy
Mexico's presidential race has become a very close contest. The latest polls show the conservative National Action Party's candidate Felipe Calderon tied with the Democratic Revolutionary Party's candidate, left-leaning former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador; Institutional Revolutionary Party candidate Roberto Madrazo is not far behind.
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01/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S. Perceptions of a Chinese Threat
The U.S. Department of Defense released its annual report on China's military last week. The Pentagon reported that China is moving forward rapidly with an offensive capability in the Pacific.
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01/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Self-Protection: Assessing Threats and Vulnerabilities
Personal security services are thriving in the post-Sept. 11 world as more and more top executives seek out expert protection. The fact remains, however, that many executives -- including those whose work location or professional status would seem to warrant them protection -- either prefer not to employ security details or are not afforded them by their employers.
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31/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Bicycles: Another Lethal Weapon in the Militant Arsenal
An improvised explosive device (IED), possibly bicycle-borne, detonated May 30 near the Athens home of Greek Culture Minister Giorgos Voulgarakis. No one was injured in the blast, which occurred just minutes before Voulgarakis was to pass by on his way to work. If indeed a bike was used, the case would be the latest example of the vehicle's use either as a bomb delivery mechanism -- or as a bomb itself.
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29/05/2006 | Frente Externo
Peru, Colombia: Elections and Second Thoughts on Populism
The first round of Colombia's presidential elections will be May 28; Peru's presidential election runoff follows June 4. After other Latin American countries' recent elections of left-leaning populist governments, these two countries seem ready to depart from that route.
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28/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Kaibiles: The New Lethal Force in the Mexican Drug Wars
The investigation into the April beheadings of two Mexican police officers in the Pacific resort city of Acapulco has led to the Kaibiles, Guatemalan special forces deserters who have taken on the role of hired guns for Mexico's Gulf cartel, one of the most powerful drug cartels operating in the country.
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23/05/2006 | Frente Externo
The U.S. Immigration Debate's Fallout in Mexico
Mexican President Vicente Fox will visit three U.S. states May 23-27, where he will address recent developments on the U.S. debate about immigration. Among these developments are U.S. President George W. Bush's May 15 proposal to deploy National Guard forces along the U.S.-Mexico border and his support for a guest-worker program.
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17/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Brazil: When Violence Reaches a Tipping Point
Brazilian authorities stabilized the sprawling business capital of Sao Paulo on May 16 after a prison gang launched an offensive that sparked four days of riots and fighting. At least 80 people were killed, including 31 police officers, and scores of buses were torched.
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17/05/2006 | En Profundidad
EU, Latin America: Summit, Or Pique?
Some 60 world leaders meet today in Vienna, Austria, as part of the Europe-Latin American summit. Despite some wonderful rhetoric, the two sides have little to speak of constructively. Far more interesting than a European-Latin American dialogue are the emerging splits among various Latin American states.
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13/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Beheadings in Mexico: The Foreign Element in Mexico's Drug Wars
On May 8, authorities in the town of Aguaje in Mexico's Michoacan state found the beheaded body of Hector Espinoza, a lawyer whose client had been detained by authorities on suspicion of belonging to a drug cartel.
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07/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Diplomatic Snubs and Sino-U.S. Relations
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian made a refueling stop in the United Arab Emirates while en route to Asuncion, Paraguay, on Thursday. On each of his four previous presidential trips to Latin America, Chen made refueling stops at U.S. cities -- Seattle, New York and Los Angeles -- instead.
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07/05/2006 | Frente Externo
Bolivia's Energy Nationalization: Opting for Short-Term Gains
The nationalization of Bolivia's energy resources sparked an immediate call from Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva for a meeting of heads of state in the region, which did little to resolve issues.
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06/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
U.S.: CIA Director Porter Goss' Resignation
CIA Director Porter Goss resigned May 5. This comes in the middle of a restructuring of the Bush administration. In the grand scheme of things, however, this move is more noise than meaning.
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06/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China, Russia, U.S.: Washington's Strategic Insults
U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney spoke at a conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, on May 4, delivering a critical message toward Russia that raised Cold War imagery and urged Moscow and its allies to pursue democracy.
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04/05/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
No Relief at the Gas Pumps
U.S. President George W. Bush announced a plan April 25 to mitigate high gasoline prices. None of the proposed measures will have much of an impact on prices this year, and in fact, prices have nowhere to go but up for the next couple of weeks.
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02/05/2006 | Frente Externo
Bolivia: Nationalized Oil and Gas
Bolivian President Evo Morales signed a decree May 1 by which Bolivia nationalizes its oil and gas resources. Nationalization was one of Morales' main campaign promises. While Morales had apparently flip-flopped on his policies to allow the unrestricted growing of coca, he was facing increasing pressure to act soon on some of his campaign promises. Now he is starting to deliver.
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02/05/2006 | Frente Externo
Bolivia and Leftward Movement in Latin America
Bolivian President Evo Morales followed through on a campaign promise on Monday by nationalizing the country's oil and natural gas industries. The move, which Morales discussed frequently during his first 100 days in power, should not have come as a surprise, but the way in which it was done caught many off guard.
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30/04/2006 | Frente Externo
COLOMBIA- A Slaying Threatens the President's Re-Election
The sister of former Colombian President Cesar Gaviria, Liliana Gaviria, was killed the night of April 27 during a kidnapping attempt.
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25/04/2006 | Frente Externo
Repsol in Bolivia: When Business Serves Foreign Policy
Bolivia's government will take away control of energy prices and export volumes from foreign companies, and will proceed with the implementation of a law raising energy-output taxes from 18 percent to 50 percent, Bolivian officials said April 23 in Washington.
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24/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Al Qaeda's New Focus on Sudan
Al Jazeera aired a fresh audiotape on Sunday that is believed to have been recorded by Osama bin Laden -- the second such tape featuring the al Qaeda leader this year after a long hiatus from the public eye.
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24/04/2006 | Frente Externo
The Shiite Schisms
Highly anticipated public talks between the United States and Iran over the future of Iraq have been lagging behind schedule, while the rhetorical exchanges between Tehran and Washington over Iran's nuclear program have been gaining volume.
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23/04/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Russia: Pipeline Monopolies Stymie Infrastructure Improvement
Russia's oil and natural gas pipeline infrastructure badly needs improvement. Paradoxically, inefficient pipelines are being financed with state money, while those that would make sense are not being built.
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23/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iraq: Jaafari Steps Aside -- Not Down
Iraq's Shiite bloc picked Jawad al-Maliki on April 21 as its nominee for prime minister, replacing Ibrahim Jaafari as the group's choice. Initial agreement on the other top jobs in the new Iraqi state also was announced.
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21/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Pakistan-Jihadist Connection
Two recent arrests on both sides of the Atlantic appear to confirm Western law enforcement beliefs that travel by certain Muslims to Pakistan can be a key indicator of jihadist tendencies.
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21/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Shiite Schisms
Highly anticipated public talks between the United States and Iran over the future of Iraq have been lagging behind schedule, while the rhetorical exchanges between Tehran and Washington over Iran's nuclear program have been gaining volume.
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21/04/2006 | Frente Externo
Bush, Hu and the 'Accidental' Journalist
Chinese President Hu Jintao received a rousing welcome in Washington, D.C. on Thursday -- complete with a fife and drum corps, a red carpet and a Falun Gong activist shouting during the first moments of his speech.
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18/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
PNA: Hamas' Message in the Tel Aviv Attack
A joint suicide bombing attack carried out by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade on April 17 left at least nine people dead and more than 50 wounded in Tel Aviv, Israel. Under intense financial and diplomatic pressure, Hamas is playing with fire in its attempt to prevent a government collapse.
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18/04/2006 | Frente Externo
Russia: The Centralization Trend Continues
Two more of Russia's administrative entities -- the Irkutsk region and the Ust-Ordynskiy Buryat Autonomous District -- overwhelmingly voted to unite in an April 16 referendum. This is yet another step in Russian President Vladimir Putin's policy of centralizing power over Russia's regions, but demographics and ethnic self-determination concerns also play a part in the merger.
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18/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Countdown to a Coup in Nepal?
Nepal is quickly earning a reputation as least desirable vacation spot, with violent protests beginning to spiral out of control. Street clashes continued in the Kathmandu Valley and the towns of Nijgarh and Gongabu on Monday as soldiers fired on protesters with bullets and teargas shells.
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18/04/2006 | Frente Externo
Vietnam: The Party Congress Tackles Corruption
Vietnam's 10th Party Congress begins April 18. Though the Congress -- which approves general socio-economic targets for the next five years -- is seen as a rubber-stamp legislature, this new meeting promises more substantive action.
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17/04/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
India, Venezuela: Caracas Diversifies its Oil Markets
Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) finalized a deal April 12 that will result in 2 million barrels of Venezuelan heavy and light crude being shipped to India every month. PDVSA has actively sought new markets for some time. In India, which possesses its own heavy crude fields, PDVSA finally may have found a partner that can help it begin to break its ties to the United States, if only by 2 million barrels a month.
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13/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Idealism, Realism and U.S. Foreign Policy
Iran says it has enriched uranium. Hosni Mubarak is claiming that Shia in Sunni states are traitors to their countries. The French are in political and economic gridlock. With all these urgent things going on, it seems to us that it is time to talk of something important, something that has driven and divided American politics for centuries and will continue to do so: the argument between those who have been called idealists and those who have been labeled realists in U.S. foreign policy.
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13/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
North Korea: Weighing the Benefits of the Nuclear Card
North Korea's parliament, the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA), met April 11 to discuss government and economic performance for the past year and the coming year, and to plan out the government's priorities. Though the SPA is often considered a rubber-stamp parliament, its discussions in recent years have offered insight into the shape of upcoming North Korean policies.
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10/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Saudi Militant Threat in Israel and the Palestinian Territories
Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal revealed April 4 that Israel is holding a Saudi national suspected of being an al Qaeda operative, and that Riyadh is working through the United Nations and international humanitarian organizations to have him extradited to the kingdom.
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08/04/2006 | En Profundidad
Political Instability in Europe's Core
France has a prime minister waiting for a pink slip and the German government is wobbling impressively. With the most important states in the European Union obsessed with internal issues, those seeking European stability will need to look elsewhere -- and will likely be disappointed.
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06/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Italy's Attraction for Islamist Militants
Italian authorities claim they foiled attacks against the Milan subway system and Bologna's Basilica of San Petronio, home of a 1415 fresco by Giovanni da Modena that depicts the Prophet Mohammed being tormented in hell, by deporting seven people linked to two Algerian militant groups.
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06/04/2006 | Frente Externo
Ukraine: An Orange Reunion?
Although Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko on April 6 called for a reincarnation of the Orange coalition, this is not the final word in the formation of the government.
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05/04/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Venezuela's Oil Dreams
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has made two interesting proposals concerning the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC): He says he plans to push the cartel to establish long-term contracts with a fixed price -- $50 per barrel for Venezuela's oil -- and to ask that his country be recognized as having the world's largest oil reserves.
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30/03/2006 | Frente Externo
RUSSIA: WTO Accession Still Not a Done Deal -- From Any Point of View
EU Transport Commissioner Jacques Barrot has called on Russia to repeal tariffs it imposes on European airlines flying over Siberia, as the policy is incompatible with Russia's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession bid.
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28/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Thailand's Political Unrest: The Significance for Multinationals
Political tensions escalated in Thailand on March 27 when authorities were called to defuse a bomb at the Bangkok headquarters of the country's main opposition Democrat Party. The incident occurred amid large protests calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is embroiled in a corruption controversy over the sale of family-owned telecommunications conglomerate, Shin Corp., to a Singapore-owned company.
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28/03/2006 | Frente Externo
ITALY - Running the Electoral Numbers
Italy's Union coalition, led by former Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi, still leads Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and his House of Freedoms coalition in polls. Nevertheless, a closer look at the numbers and recently amended electoral laws suggests Berlusconi is poised for re-election.
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27/03/2006 | Frente Externo
BRAZIL- Continuity at the Finance Ministry
Brazilian Finance Minister Antonio Palocci resigned March 27 after several weeks of increasing pressure for his departure.
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24/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CHINA-Pumping an Iranian LNG Deal for Oil
Industry officials announced March 22 that a $100-billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal between China's Sinopec and Iran will be delayed until at least mid-2006 due to price disagreements. Despite the effect of high prices, the real dilemma facing the two parties is that Iran has no facilities capable of exporting LNG. The agreement's strategic importance lies in Sinopec's development of the Yadavaran field and the oil reserves held there.
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24/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Residential Security - PDF

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24/03/2006 | Transparencia
CORRUPTION-Execution in China: Sending a Message to Big Business
In an apparent crackdown on the most heinous form of corruption within China's business community, the government has executed tycoon Yuan Baojing for ordering a hit on an ex-associate who tried to blackmail him in 2003. The 40-year-old Yuan and two accomplices were put to death by lethal injection March 17 after China's northeastern Liaoning province upheld their 2005 death sentence.
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24/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
SPAIN- ETA's Cease-Fire and its Search for Viability
Spanish Basque separatist group ETA announced March 22 that a permanent cease-fire will begin March 24. ETA's declaration is less of a concession to the government and people of Spain than an indication that the group is losing power.
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24/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
GERMANY -The German Weapons - Smuggling Scandal: Opportunities for Merkel
A breaking scandal in Germany over alleged weapons smuggling to Iran threatens the survival of the German foreign minister. Ironically, such a development could lead to a consolidation of not only the minister's party, but of the federal government itself.
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24/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
IRAN - Reading Between the Lines of Khamenei's Blessing
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has formally approved U.S.-Iranian negotiations on Iraq. Since the Iranian national security apparatus would not have publicly agreed to a dialogue with the United States had the move not been sanctioned by the highest echelons, the real purpose of Khamenei's March 21 announcement is to send a signal to Washington and dissenting voices in the clerical establishment. And that message is: The Iranian government is committed to the negotiations and is not being pressured.
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22/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
INDONESIA- Violent Protests: A Message to Multinationals?
Some 50 protesters destroyed a workers' camp operated by the world's largest gold mining company on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa on March 19, forcing the company, U.S.-based Newmont Mine Corp., to shut down exploration operations at the site.
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22/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Unlikely Terrorist Threat Against U.S. Agriculture
An area emergency coordinator for the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, a division of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, warned March 16 of possible terrorist acts against the nation's food supply, specifically Wyoming's cattle industry.
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20/02/2006 | Frente Externo
Nigeria - Same News, Different Network
Oil prices spiked Feb. 17 on reports of threats of "total war" from militants operating in Nigeria's Niger Delta region. Not only is no total war imminent, but nothing particularly unique is even happening in the country.
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20/02/2006 | Frente Externo
INDONESIA-Yudhoyono's Plan for Indonesia's Resurrection
Indonesia is trying to bring back the glory days when it was prominent in Asia. It is doing so by playing a larger role as a negotiator throughout the region, acting as a mediator between the Koreas, and pushing for democracy in Myanmar.
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18/02/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
India: Hopes for Nuclear -- and Geopolitical -- Power
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is hoping to get a strategic U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear deal off the ground when U.S. President George W. Bush travels to the subcontinent March 1.
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11/02/2006 | Frente Externo
India: King Abdullah Gets the Royal Treatment
Saudi King Abdullah will be Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's chief guest Jan. 26 on India's Republic Day. King Abdullah's New Delhi tour marks the first official visit to India by a Saudi monarch in more than 50 years. Beyond the energy, counterterrorism and business deals inked on this trip, King Abdullah's visit will pave the way for a larger geostrategic relationship permitting New Delhi to distance itself from Tehran's orbit.
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11/02/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Drugs, Weapons and Violence: The U.S.-Mexican Border's Hot Commodities
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said Feb. 3 that government agents operating in the U.S.-Mexican border town of Laredo, Texas, had seized a large cache of weapons and material for making improvised explosive devices.
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11/02/2006 | Frente Externo
Mexico, U.S.: Election-Year Rhetoric on Both Sides of the Border
Mexico City officials say they are considering closing the Maria Isabel Sheraton Hotel. They claim the U.S.-owned hotel violated several local regulations, but the announcement came shortly after an uproar resulting from the expulsion of 16 Cuban officials staying at the hotel last week. The Sheraton incident is another factor contributing to the diplomatic tension between Mexico City and Washington. More importantly, it illustrates the political pressures facing legislators on both sides of the border during an election year.
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07/02/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
China's Motive in Oil Deals with India
Indian Oil Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar traveled to Beijing on Jan. 11 for a three-day round of energy talks with Chinese officials and energy firms that will culminate in a series of agreements for Sino-Indian exploration, production and bidding on oil projects.
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26/01/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Bin Laden Tape and the Strike in Damadola
The world continues to be fascinated by the latest audiotape from Osama bin Laden. The statements he makes are certainly interesting: simultaneously threatening more attacks against the United States and offering a truce.
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25/01/2006 | En Profundidad
Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near-Great Powers -- Part II
Europe: Achtung! - Last year's annual forecast said 2005 would be the year that marked the beginning of the European Union's fracturing. This is precisely what happened.
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22/01/2006 | En Profundidad
Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near -Great Powers -- Part I
The year 2005 was forecast as the year when "Other Things Start to Matter." What we meant by that was that it would be the year in which other things, aside from the U.S.-jihadist war, would shape the international system. The rebirth of Russian assertiveness and increased Chinese nationalism certainly showed us that other things were starting to matter. We will name 2006 "The Year of Great and Near-Great Powers."
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19/01/2006 | En Parrilla
Taiwan: Chen Risks China's Ire to Visit Gadhafi
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian accepted an invitation Jan. 18 to visit Libya and speak with the country's leader, Moammar Gadhafi. China, which still adheres to the "one-China" principle, is angered by the meeting, especially considering Beijing already has diplomatic ties with Tripoli. Despite its objections, China is finding it difficult to couple its words with substantial action.
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19/01/2006 | Frente Externo
EU: Austria's Presidential Problem
The European Union's new president, Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel, is outlining his goals for his term. Some of the issues his proposals relate to are extremely timely; some are extremely hopeless -- and the most important issue of all has received little notice.
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14/01/2006 | Sociedad
Travel Security: The Importance of Understanding the Risks
In today's world, international travel presents certain risks for Westerners, especially in areas of Africa, Asia, Latin America, the former Soviet Union and parts of Eastern Europe where governments have less control, and law and order is not as formally established as in other countries.
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14/01/2006 | Sociedad
Thailand and the Possible Terrorist Threat to Tourists
Australia's national daily The Australian reported Jan. 11 that two terrorism experts believe militants could be targeting tourists in Thailand. Although these perceived threats are not new -- appearing from time to time due to continued unrest in three southern provinces -- they cannot be ignored, given the nature of the potential targets.
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12/01/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Arms Market: Accident or careful planning?
More than 100 tons of commercial-grade explosives being transported aboard the Honduran-flagged merchant ship MV Eugenia fell overboard in bad weather off the coast of Mumbai, India, on Dec. 22, 2005, the shipmaster claimed.
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12/01/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iran's latest nuclear provocation : the resumption of nuclear fuel
The foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany are set to meet Thursday in Berlin to discuss ways of dealing with Iran's latest nuclear provocation -- the resumption of nuclear fuel research earlier this week at Natanz.
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06/01/2006 | Economía y Finanzas
Russian gas: This is not all about Moscow -- Germany has a stake as well
During the past few weeks, Russia and Ukraine have been arguing over the terms of their natural gas supply contracts.
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20/12/2005 | Frente Externo
Evo Morales won Bolivia's presidential elections Dec.18: Morales Signals Left, Turns Right
Indigenous leader Evo Morales of the Movement to Socialism Party won the Bolivian presidency in Dec. 18 elections, Bolivian officials announced Dec. 19.
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01/08/2005 | En Profundidad
Argentina: Kirchner's Populism and a Darkening Economic Future
Rapidly rising inflation has stolen the headlines in Argentina. President Nestor Kirchner's considered approach to dealing with inflation has been to fan populist flames and threaten companies that raise prices with higher taxes.
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06/01/2005 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iran - Rice: 'If negotiations have been exhausted, we have the votes'
The United States on Jan. 5 warned Iran that, should it resume nuclear-fuel-related activities, Washington would immediately move to refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council.
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