Analysis

Saudi King Abdullah's visit to India coincides with Indian Republic Day -- one of the most important countrywide celebrations in India. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, breaking protocol, arranged to meet with King Abdullah at New Delhi's airport -- an honor not even accorded to former U.S. President Bill Clinton -- and named the king the chief guest of Republic Day.

Suffice it to say, India is making a very big deal of King Abdullah's visit. And India stands to gain much from an invigorated friendship with Saudi Arabia.

The state-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co. plans to increase its oil production by 14 percent to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009, and is eyeing the burgeoning Chinese and Indian markets as potential export destinations. For its part, India would love to be on the receiving end of that oil wave. That Indian demand for oil is estimated to grow by 5 percent this fiscal year, with no signs of dropping in the near future, explains why.

Despite New Delhi's large appetite for black gold, equally energy-hungry Beijing has outmaneuvered its South Asian rival on the world stage. Thus, India has lost out to China in procuring oil resources in Myanmar and Kazakhstan. The chance to get in the good graces of the world's largest oil exporter accordingly represents too large an opportunity to pass up.

Saudi Arabia will, of course, also benefit from a larger foothold in the growing Indian energy market. King Abdullah also will seek to increase Saudi influence over India's enormous Muslim population. Increased ties between India and Saudi Arabia will likely result in a large influx of Muslim charities, literature and cultural exchanges from the Arabian Peninsula to the subcontinent. Both India and China are greatly concerned about Riyadh's gaining influence with the two countries' Muslim populations given the potential Wahhabi-jihadist threat this could spawn within their borders. Though New Delhi will approach expanded relations with Riyadh with caution due to fears of this potential influence on its own Muslim population, the desire for oil will likely trump concerns of religious intrusion.

India's Muslim population of 150 million constitutes the ostensible reason behind King Abdullah's Jan. 22 public suggestion that India should be granted observer status in the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC). The move to include India in the OIC began almost a year ago when the issue of granting Russia observer status was broached. India is keen on using the OIC as a forum to present its views on the Kashmir conflict and to undermine Pakistan's domination of the organization. King Abdullah qualified his proposal, however, by making it clear that Pakistan would have the final say on whether India is allowed observer status. By specifically mentioning Pakistan, the king has given Islamabad leverage against India in that he has signaled New Delhi that Pakistan is a major player in the OIC given that its approval is required. In response, Pakistan publicly opposed King Abdullah's Indian observer status proposal, citing an OIC rule that new entrants should not have a dispute with older members.

New Delhi's decision to court Riyadh was also prompted by the more than 3.6 million Indians living in Saudi Arabia, who send home more than $8 billion annually. Despite the links of population and energy between India and Saudi Arabia, the two countries have largely refrained from expanding their geopolitical ties.

The controversy over Iran's nuclear program could have represented one of the leading factors behind the present Saudi-Indian friendship initiative. Both Riyadh and New Delhi increasingly have found themselves stuck in situations where they cannot afford to harm relations with the United States over Iran, even though concern for their delicate relationship with Tehran means they cannot completely toe the U.S. line. Both Saudi Arabia and India have proved adept at maintaining a careful balancing act in appeasing the two sides, but share an interest in building a consensus regarding developing a middle ground between Washington and Tehran. Riyadh also is likely seeking -- with U.S. support -- to draw India further away from its close relationship with Tehran by projecting itself as a more attractive oil-monger than Iran.

The time is ripe for Saudi Arabia's royal passage to India. New Delhi and Riyadh's mutual interests will be satisfied through a strengthened geostrategic alliance. The main sticking point in this relationship will remain the threat India sees to its secular identity posed by the potential spread of Wahhabism from Saudi Arabia.