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28/02/2009 | Intelligence Guidance - Week of March 1, 2009

Stratfor Staff

Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.

 

1. The effects of U.S. troop drawdown plans: U.S. President Barack Obama has announced his Iraq drawdown plans: An end to the combat mission by Aug. 31, 2010, and a complete removal of all U.S. forces by the end of 2011. The domestic ramifications for this — and the ramifications for Iraq — will not fully materialize for some time. The real impact next week will be in the Sunni portions of the Middle East, which feel the U.S. drawdown means the rise of Iranian power to supplant the Americans or — even worse — Iranian cooperation with the Americans. Watch Riyadh and Abu Dhabi and Cairo and Amman and the rest. They are not only going to be unhappily planning for an unhappy future, but they are dealing with an Iran that is already getting more aggressive with its international moves.

2. The European Union’s “crisis summit”: EU leaders will meet March 1 for a special “crisis summit” to discuss the economic situation. We’ve seen some steps by international institutions to limit the financial fallout in Central Europe, but if anything large scale is going to happen, it will have to begin at a summit like this one.

3. U.S.-Russian discussions: NATO foreign ministers will meet March 5-6 in Geneva, ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s first meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, which will itself serve as the pre-meeting before U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev hold their summit in April. The primary topic for all of these talks will be American plans to install ballistic missile defense systems in Central Europe and how they relate to NATO supply routes into Afghanistan. This is the issue upon which relations throughout Eurasia will turn for the rest of the year.

4. Pakistan’s internal troubles: In a fight between rival political factions, the Pakistani national government has suspended the Punjabi regional government. Normally we would not much care — Pakistan routinely teeters on the brink of chaos, and its internal political squabbles are of little concern — but between the United States attempting to ramp up the Afghan war and the local insurgency in the country’s north, it is more than merely notable that the parts of Pakistan that actually function are falling apart. Any number of break points could be breached in the fallout to come.

5. The U.S. markets: The S&P 500 has been hovering around 750 points — its November low — for several days now. Investors are looking for some signal to determine if the economy has bottomed or if there is a deeper secular shift yet to occur. We’re watching for a decisive break one way or another to signal the general direction of the markets. A rally would signal the beginning of a recovery in capital availability.

6. The National People’s Congress: In China, the National People’s Congress (NPC) will be held next week. Most discussions of any great economic and/or social development plans will be back-burnered, with the Politburo preferring to keep all minds firmly focused on generating additional economic stimulus. We may even see a new stimulus package materialize. But the real fireworks will involve not the Congress, but the people. The NPC is the annual event most likely to draw disgruntled Chinese citizens seeking to air their grievances with the central government. Maintaining control is of the highest importance to the government, and grievance-motivated protest actions are already on the rise.

EURASIA

  • March 1: EU leaders will meet in Brussels for a special “crisis summit” to discuss the economic situation. On the agenda will be fear of protectionism, a proposal to widen EU regulation of financial institutions, issuance of a eurobond backed by the eurozone but targeting suffering states and a possible Central Europe bailout package.
  • March 2-3: Syrian Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Hassan Ali Turkmani will pay an official visit to Belarus, meeting with Belarusian Defense Minister Col. Gen. Leonid Maltsev.
  • March 3: Ukraine will submit an application to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the second installment of a $16.43 billion loan, which has been delayed over the Ukrainian government’s inability to prove to the IMF that the country is capable of reducing its budget deficit.
  • March 5-6: NATO Foreign Ministers will meet in Geneva, followed by new U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s first meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. Issues on the table for both meetings include ballistic missile defense, Iran and transit routes to Afghanistan.
  • March 6: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will travel to Brussels, where she will meet with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, whose country holds the bloc’s rotating presidency.

MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA

  • March 2: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Washington’s special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell will be among the attendees at an Egyptian-hosted international conference on the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction. On the sidelines, a Middle East Quartet meeting will take place attended by Lavrov, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
  • March 3: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will travel to Israel and the West Bank for talks with Israeli and Palestinian officials.

EAST ASIA

  • March 1: South Korea will mark its Independence Day. South Korean President Lee Myung Bak will give a speech that may touch on the economic crisis and North Korea.
  • March 1: The new U.S. special envoy to North Korea Stephen Bosworth will travel to Japan, South Korea and China as well as Russia in an effort to move forward in the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program.
  • March 1-2: New Zealand Prime Minister John Key will visit Australia and hold formal talks with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in Sydney. The two are expected to discuss plans on establishing a single economic market between the two countries.
  • March 1-3: Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt will meet his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi during his three-day visit to China. Both sides will discuss the EU presidency and the effects of the financial crisis.
  • March 2-8: South Korean President Lee Myung Bak will tour New Zealand, Australia and Indonesia. During his stay in New Zealand and Australia, he will announce the official start of bilateral free trade talks with both countries.
  • March 2: South Korea and the European Union will hold talks on a $100-billion-plus free trade pact. The union’s trade chief hopes to initial a trade deal with Seoul, but some countries — notably Germany, Italy and France — are seemingly unhappy with the deal, which would cut import tariffs on Korean cars. European carmakers are concerned that South Korea is not reciprocating with a deal to clear the red tape that they say holds them back in Korea.
  • March 3: The second session of the 11th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference will convene in Beijing.
  • March 5: The second session of the 11th National People’s Congress will begin in Beijing.
  • March 6: Thailand’s ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will speak in Hong Kong despite calls for his extradition to Thailand.

LATIN AMERICA

  • Feb. 28: Opposition groups plan to march throughout Nicaragua to protest alleged fraud during municipal-level elections held in November. Government supporters are expected to demonstrate as well.
  • March 4: Brazilian Deputy Foreign Minister Samuel Pinheiro Guimaraes will meet with Subsecretary for International Economic Relations in the Argentine Foreign Ministry Alfredo Chiaradia in Buenos Aires to begin a working group to discuss trade between the two countries.

AFRICA

  • March 4: The International Criminal Court will announce whether it will issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al Bashir.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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