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24/04/2006 | Al Qaeda's New Focus on Sudan

Stratfor Staff

Al Jazeera aired a fresh audiotape on Sunday that is believed to have been recorded by Osama bin Laden -- the second such tape featuring the al Qaeda leader this year after a long hiatus from the public eye.

 

Given the subject matter and allusions to specific events -- an Israeli raid at a prison in Jericho and the suspension of financial aid from the West to the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) -- it appears the recording likely was made after March 14 and perhaps even after April 7.

The speaker touched on several common themes, including the notion that the West is waging a war against Islam (which bin Laden believes is made obvious by the cutoff of aid to the Hamas-led PNA earlier this month). However, on most levels, the recording is more interesting for what was not said. The ongoing struggles in Iraq and Afghanistan -- the main theaters of the U.S.-jihadist war -- were given only cursory treatment; instead, bin Laden focused his remarks on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (an old standby for Islamist militant groups) and, intriguingly, on Sudan.

For all that it is familiar territory -- and once served as a sanctuary -- for bin Laden and al Qaeda, Sudan has received scant attention in previous statements. In this recording, however, bin Laden devoted some time to discussing the history of Sudan, condemned both U.S. and British involvement in the country and made some pointed remarks about President Omar al Bashir, the leader who gave al Qaeda the boot in 1996 in response to U.S. pressure. Bin Laden denounced calls for a U.N. peacekeeping mission to Darfur as part of a "Crusader-Zionist" effort to occupy and pillage yet another Muslim country, and he called for Muslims in Sudan as well as the Arabian Peninsula to prepare for a long-term war against the crusaders.

The timing of this call for jihadists to take their fight to Sudan is interesting in its own right: U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan is due to present a plan for deploying peacekeepers to Darfur to the Security Council on April 24. At the moment, Darfur is patrolled by a 7,800-strong contingent from the African Union that is finding it difficult to keep the conflict contained.

Bin Laden made it clear that there is little love lost between al Qaeda and al Bashir's regime in Khartoum, saying the mujahideen should take up arms "in western Sudan not in defense of the Khartoum government, even though our differences may be mutual, as our differences with it are great." He went on to call for al Qaeda and its followers to "learn about the land and tributes of the Darfur province and the parts around it" -- a statement that could be read as disapproval of the tactics used by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq, whose attacks against civilians, amid a dicey political situation, have cost al Qaeda support in the region. Thus, "It has been said that a man with knowledge can conquer land, while land can conquer the ignorant."

On another note, the speaker pointed out that the rainy season in Sudan -- which could complicate efforts to deploy any peacekeeping forces -- is approaching. This could be a hint that jihadists should move into the region sooner rather than later.

Al Qaeda certainly has staged operations in Africa before -- to wit, the 1998 bombings of U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and later strikes against Jewish targets in Mombasa -- but bin Laden has not publicly discussed an African country as a major theater of operations for jihadists before. The fact that he is doing so now is difficult to separate from developments in the Middle East, where radical Islamist groups increasingly are taking part in the political process. In fact, bin Laden underscored earlier statements by Ayman al-Zawahiri in "warning that there is a taboo against joining infidel assemblies." In other words, al Qaeda's call to jihad is losing its punch in the Gulf states, Jordan, Egypt and other countries, where Islamist groups do not necessarily share its same vision and are earning a degree of political power. Certainly, both Hamas and the government in Sudan were quick to disassociate themselves from al Qaeda on Sunday -- something Hamas has found it necessary to do before.

By all appearances, al Qaeda is discouraged about the poor reception its call to jihad is getting in these parts of the Muslim world -- indeed, the militant group seems to find it difficult to sell its cause in areas that are not already chaotic. Given the recent political developments in Iraq and the lack of progress it is sensing in Afghanistan, al Qaeda appears to be seeking new venues through which to spread its influence. And if bin Laden can cause problems for an old enemy in Khartoum at the same time, so much -- the thinking goes -- the better.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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