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18/04/2007 | Morocco - Casablanca's Second-String Bombers

Stratfor Staff

The U.S. Consulate in Casablanca, Morocco, was closed again April 17 in response to two April 14 suicide bombings near the Dar America cultural center and the U.S. Consulate. The bombers displayed poor tactics and inadequate planning, demonstrating that the recent crackdown in Casablanca has seen many of the more experienced militants behind the attacks taken out of circulation.

 

The U.S. Consulate in Casablanca, Morocco, remained closed April 17 while steps were taken to further improve security in light of the recent round of suicide attacks in Morocco and Algeria. The poor tactics and inadequate planning employed in the attacks indicate that militants operating in Casablanca have been affected by the Moroccan government's security crackdown.

The two attacks near the U.S. Consulate were the latest in a recent bout of bombings in Morocco and Algeria that have prompted heightened security and crackdowns in those countries. In Morocco, the investigations and crackdowns have led to dozens of arrests. This might have damaged the militants' organizations by taking experienced operational commanders and bombmakers out of circulation, leaving less-experienced foot soldiers to carry out any attacks.

The first blast occurred at about 9:15 a.m. local time near the U.S. Consulate and a synagogue. It is unclear whether either was the intended target. The explosion was caught on the consulate's security tape, which showed the bomber approach a guard and a marked police cruiser before detonating his explosives. The bomber reportedly asked the guard for access to the facility, but set off his bomb when challenged.

The second blast occurred moments later a few yards away near the entrance to the Dar America cultural center, where English classes are offered, possibly after the bomber realized police had spotted him. Only the two bombers died, though one woman was injured; a third suspect fled the scene. Police later apprehended the third man and recovered a suicide belt he abandoned near the scene of the bombings.

Casablanca

Two brothers carried out the bombings, which appear to be linked to Casablanca's other recent suicide bombings. The two were not on the Moroccan police list of suspected militants. Though the attacks and arrest happened, Moroccan security services launched a major search operation in Sidi Moumen, an outlying district of Casablanca known to harbor militants. As a result of the operation, police arrested the alleged leader of the cell responsible for a March 10 suicide bombing in a Casablanca Internet cafe and April 10 suicide bombings that came after a police raid. Information obtained from the suspected cell leader helped officials arrest an accomplice and find several locations used for the manufacture of explosives. Police also obtained the names of other members of the group, who are now actively being sought.

Although militants in North Africa supposedly are organized under an umbrella group known as al Qaeda Organization for the Countries of the Arab Maghreb, there appears to be little interaction between militants in Algeria and Morocco. In Algeria, militants have used a mix of tactics employed by the former Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat as well as al Qaeda. This has included roadside bombs and truck bombs, as well as larger vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED). In Morocco, militants so far have used smaller suicide belts, which lack the destructive power of VBIEDs or even of the suicide vests used by bombers in Iraq. Despite al Qaeda claims that North African militants are united, they appear to be operating independently of each other, just as they did before the formation of al Qaeda's regional umbrella group.

The most recent bombings in Casablanca probably would have been far more elaborate had Moroccan authorities not actively been searching and rounding up suspected militants since the March Internet cafe bombing. That incident plus the April 10 attacks have led U.S. and Moroccan authorities to tighten security, making it much more difficult for the two April 14 suicide bombers to reach their intended targets. The bombers appear to have followed their original plan, not taking into consideration a number of factors about their target that would have changed as a result of the earlier bombings. This suggests the operation was
rushed as a result of pressure from Moroccan security forces.

In addition to failing to take security countermeasures into account, the bombers apparently ignored changed pedestrian traffic patterns on weekends. Pedestrian traffic in front of the U.S. Consulate was light because it was a Saturday and the visa line was closed. For optimal effect, the bombers would have carried out their attack on a day when more people would be visiting the consulate and cultural center, thus maximizing potential causalities.

Moroccan security forces apparently have been meeting with success against militant cells operating in country. But the latest incident at the U.S. Consulate shows that despite the damage done to their organization, militants in Casablanca remain willing and able to strike at Western targets. And even if the members not rounded up by the authorities are not the most proficient at planning and executing attacks, they are still capable of inflicting casualties.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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