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30/03/2006 | RUSSIA: WTO Accession Still Not a Done Deal -- From Any Point of View

Stratfor Staff

EU Transport Commissioner Jacques Barrot has called on Russia to repeal tariffs it imposes on European airlines flying over Siberia, as the policy is incompatible with Russia's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession bid.

 

Although Russia and the European Union have concluded a bilateral agreement on Russia's WTO accession, the EU is re-evaluating its support of Russia's accession bid after bilateral energy negotiations failed -- and Russia's inflexibility on its energy policy might trigger its reconsideration of WTO membership altogether.

EU Transport Commissioner Jacques Barrot has said Russia's policy of charging EU airlines high fees to fly over Siberia must be repealed before Moscow completes negotiations for World Trade Organization (WTO) membership with the members of the WTO working party on accession, including the United States.

The airline fees are relatively inconsequential, as the tariffs are supposed to be eliminated by 2013 anyway. However, the issue has wider implications on EU-Russian relations. If the EU makes its statement an ultimatum and the Russians do not acquiesce and drop the tariffs, the EU will use the opportunity to reopen WTO negotiations and revisit energy security -- its underlying concern -- as a key discussion topic. Since Russia has not completed WTO negotiations with the United States, the EU can still take this opportunity to reconsider its support for Russia's accession. However, Russia's control of its own energy sector is a top priority and could cause Russia to reconsider its WTO bid altogether.

Moscow's energy policy is intertwined with its foreign and security policies, and the income from that sector feeds the Russian economy. In 2005, Russia's revenues from oil exports were a projected $109 billion, while its natural gas export revenues totaled $26 billion. Russian oil production in 2005 was 9.4 million barrels per day, while total gas production was 640.6 billion cubic meters. Moscow's need to keep Europe dependent on Russian state-controlled monopolies for energy supplies is paramount.

Energy is the foundation of the European-Russian relationship. Russia is Europe's single-largest supplier of both oil and natural gas, and as such feels it should have a special dispensation in broader policymaking. If Europe, in reopening accession negotiations, attempts to pressure Russia to liberalize its energy sector, the continent might discover that Russia would rather not go through the trouble of joining the WTO if it means giving up control.

Since Russia cut off natural gas to Ukraine in January, which drastically affected transit to the rest of Europe, the European Union has been scrambling to find ways to make Russia guarantee deliveries in the future. In pursuit of this goal, European Commission President Jose Manuel Durao Barroso met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in early March, but to no avail. Barroso wanted Russia to open its pipelines and reserves to foreign companies, so that even if Russia -- for whatever reason -- reduced supplies, others could use Russia's pipes to fill the gap. However, Moscow refuses to open its source of regional geopolitical strength to foreigners, particularly the foreigners it can manipulate with that strength.

Meanwhile, Russia has continued to actively pursue WTO membership. When these negotiations began in 1993, Russia was in a Westernizing mood and expected WTO membership to prove beneficial. Now, Russia has less incentive to continue negotiating, especially if WTO accession requires compromise on such a critical issue as energy. Putin stated as much March 29, when he said Russia "remained interested in joining the WTO," but qualified: "We will take this step if it satisfies all participants in the process, and primarily Russia and the (Russian) economy."

Russia does not need to join the WTO in order to continue to focus on energy as its primary export, but Moscow continues to negotiate because it would like access to other European economic markets, and Russia is more than a little embarrassed to be the only economy of any size in the world left out of the club. For the EU's part, the union hoped in 2005 that Russia would continue to evolve toward a free market economy and had concluded the accession agreement with Moscow in good faith.

Russia has no reason to withdraw its bid if the EU does not make an ultimatum out of the tariffs. If the EU acquiesces on tariffs, Russia will resume its normal negotiations mode. However, if Europe sticks to its ultimatum, Russia would rather abandon its pursuit of WTO membership than face the challenges against its energy policy.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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