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18/04/2006 | Countdown to a Coup in Nepal?

Stratfor Staff

Nepal is quickly earning a reputation as least desirable vacation spot, with violent protests beginning to spiral out of control. Street clashes continued in the Kathmandu Valley and the towns of Nijgarh and Gongabu on Monday as soldiers fired on protesters with bullets and teargas shells.

 

At least four people have been killed and dozens injured during nearly two weeks of protests against the monarchy. King Gyanendra is close to re-declaring a state of emergency, a move that likely would only prolong the current crisis.

The situation in Nepal has been deteriorating gradually since King Gyanendra dissolved the parliament in February 2005 -- saying the elected government had not done enough to quell the Maoist insurgency. As a result, the seven-party alliance (SPA) of democratic political parties formed an unusual alliance with the country's rebel Maoist movement in a united effort to bring down the monarchy.

In an attempt to split the SPA-Maoist alliance (SPAM), the king announced in a Hindu New Year address April 13 that he would call national elections and consult with the country's political parties. The promise of elections was viewed as a complete farce, and the opposition's calls to replace the monarchy with a constitutional assembly only grew louder.

For the Maoist rebels, the king's maneuver last year -- often referred to as a "royal coup" -- fit perfectly into their strategy. Once the political parties had been pushed out of the government, the Maoists had a new asset to exploit in their campaign against the monarchy. The strategy has involved publicly declaring a cease-fire in the Kathmandu Valley, thus drawing media attention to crackdowns by security forces and mass arrests of peaceful protesters from the SPA -- acts that have drawn international condemnation. Moreover, so long as security forces are tied down in efforts to contain demonstrations in the urban centers, the Maoists have greater liberty to carry out attacks against the army in the countryside.

The power of the monarchy in Nepal generally derives from the weakness of the opposition. The SPA has rebalanced the situation by entering into an alliance with the Maoists, but it also risks falling victim to Maoist attacks if it were to break off that deal, agree to a dialogue with the king and participate in elections called by the monarch. In short, the parties are like blackmail victims, forced to follow the Maoists' strategy.

India, meanwhile, is not pleased about the fire in its backyard. New Delhi has a vested interest in keeping the current unrest in Nepal contained. For one thing, India and Nepal share an open border -- so much so that Nepalese citizens are legally eligible for the majority of jobs in India's labor market -- and if the situation worsens, there is every possibility that refugees would come fleeing across that border into India. That, of course, would not be high on New Delhi's wish list. But of greatest concern for New Delhi is the fact that Nepalese Maoists regularly coordinate with India's indigenous Maoist insurgency for training, supplies and even attacks -- a trend that is likely to become more deeply entrenched in the future. The Maoists want to create a Compact Revolutionary Zone -- a corridor that would stretch from Nepal to Andhra Pradesh, running through the Indian states of Bihar, Jharkand, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Thus far, India has not been able to contain its own Maoist insurgency -- so the idea of Nepalese Maoists coming to power and increasing their military strength across the border would only spell bigger trouble for New Delhi.

Politically, however, India has no easy options. Supporting King Gyanendra -- an autocratic monarch who has lost practically all standing with his people -- would be futile, but New Delhi also cannot afford to sit by and allow the monarchy to be overthrown, since that would provide an opening for the Maoists to take power. Since the king disbanded parliament, India has been taking its time to formulate a strategy on Nepal, but it's now clear the clock is ticking and spillover is possible. Recognizing that Nepal's fate depends primarily on the mindset of its generals, India's attention likely is fixated now on the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA). Senior army officials feel that New Delhi, formerly one of its chief suppliers, ditched the army when it cut off military aid to Nepal following the royal takeover. If New Delhi and the RNA can make peace, India might begin to draw the SPA away from the Maoists with the promise of RNA backing to topple the monarchy.

Though a military coup is likely in the cards for Nepal, such political maneuverings by the SPA and India would need time to develop. Meanwhile, the dark cloud of emergency rule hovers.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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