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30/07/2006 | U.S., India: Hammering Out a Nuclear Deal

Stratfor Staff

On July 26, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation Promotion Act of 2006, thus advancing the legislation to the Senate. However, the Senate will find it difficult to reconcile domestic anti-proliferation concerns with Indian demands, and there is not much time to pass the bill before summer recess. The nuclear deal will eventually pass, but not before much debate takes place -- particularly over the legislation's Iranian proviso.

 

On July 26, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation Promotion Act of 2006 by a margin of 359-68. The House rejected two amendments that could have restricted India's nuclear freedom of action: The first amendment would have required annual presidential certification that India was not sending increasing amounts of uranium into its weapons program, and the second would have restricted U.S. exports of nuclear reactor fuel to India unless the U.S. president could certify that India had halted production of weapons-usable fissile material. The Indians have insisted that this deal should not affect their military nuclear program, and the House's rejection of these amendments concedes as much.

The much-vaunted deal now moves to the U.S. Senate for approval. This is where the situation gets complicated. The House and Senate versions of the bill differ in language on several issues, the most prominent of which is the Iranian proviso. The House bill explicitly aims to "secure India's full and active participation in United States efforts to dissuade, isolate, and, if necessary, sanction and contain Iran for its efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, including a nuclear weapons capability (including the capability to enrich or process nuclear materials), and the means to deliver weapons of mass destruction." The Senate bill's language on the issue, however, is non-binding. This will be one of many issues that the House and Senate will aim to hash out before agreeing on a final version to be sent to U.S. President George W. Bush.

The salience of the Iranian issue emerged July 27, when the United States imposed sanctions on two Indian companies engaged in missile-related transactions with Tehran. This was seen as an effort to question India's anti-proliferation credentials ahead of the Senate vote.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, meanwhile, has his plate full. His economic reforms have stalled, if not reversed, as a result of widespread protests instigated by opposition and communist parties. Furthermore, his government has taken a battering over security services' failure to foil the July 11 Mumbai terrorist attacks. India's leftist parties -- allies in the coalition government -- have raised their hackles over the nuclear deal and are portraying it as a sell-out to Washington. And while the opposition Bharatiya-Janata Party might not have any ideological bias against closer cooperation with Washington, it would be unable to resist taking advantage of Singh's vulnerability if this deal should falter.

Singh would like to conclude the nuclear deal on India's terms, and is keen to avoid getting India dragged into the Iranian imbroglio; India strategically refrains from formal bindings to any of its allies and is unlikely to jeopardize its relations with Iran. Singh's Congress Party has successfully courted the Muslim vote for generations, and thus domestic politics imply that India does not want to be seen as anti-Iranian.

The nuclear deal has also had regional ripple effects. Pakistan has been inwardly fuming over the U.S.-India nuclear deal and has demanded a deal of its own -- a demand which Washington politely rejected. The United States has attempted to mollify Pakistan with F-16 aircraft, but not without first asking Pakistan to provide guarantees that there would be no unauthorized transfer of technology or equipment to third parties.

Considering Singh's current problems, it is his imperative to portray the deal as a victory for Indian interests. Any Indian compromises, especially over Iran, are very unlikely at this point. A lot of diplomacy and negotiation is ahead, both on Capitol Hill and between Washington and New Delhi.

The nuclear deal will see the light of day, although it is doubtful that Congress will send the bill to the White House before breaking for summer recess.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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