Analysis

Mexican officials threatened Feb. 9 to close the Maria Isabel Sheraton Hotel in Mexico City after local officials found the hotel violated local building codes. The announcement follows a diplomatic tiff among the United States, Mexico and Cuba over the expulsion of 16 Cuban representatives staying at the U.S.-owned hotel last week.

Relations between Washington and Mexico City are far from disrupted, but the incident illustrates Mexican politicians' renewed intent to contradict the United States, as well as lawmakers' willingness to use a neighboring country's actions as ammunition for election campaigns.

The United States and Mexico, longtime allies, recently have experienced significant diplomatic and economic tension. The Sheraton incident has become one source of the public and governmental friction over the countries' border regions. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed legislation calling for the construction of a wall along the border, a proposal that Mexico criticized severely. For its part, Mexico offered and then reneged on a policy of offering maps and directions for migrants to follow when crossing the border into the United States. These are just two recent examples of high-level disputes affecting the countries' relationship.

The increasing rhetoric between the two countries at the legislative level is underscored by the uptick in violence along the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexican border. Home to drug cartels, gangs and smugglers of all kinds, the border region is seeing more unease than in previous decades. In the past three weeks, U.S. authorities discovered a well-constructed tunnel stretching from Tijuana to San Diego, Calif., containing large amounts of marijuana; they also found significant weapons caches in Laredo, Texas. Mexican authorities try and often fail to contain the gangs and intertwining cartel violence. In Nuevo Laredo, gangs make a point of killing one person per day and recently targeted journalists working for the El Manana newspaper, which was reporting on drug activity.

Mexican President Vicente Fox can do little about the border situation; he sent fewer than 2,000 paratroopers and federal police forces to patrol the region. Mexico can neither retain soldiers stationed at the border nor afford to train and send sufficient new troops there. Police and soldiers often switch sides and defend drug traffickers after realizing they can earn more money by working for the drug industry. Mexican officials strongly deny that soldiers contribute to the problem, but the rhetoric conflicts with reality. The troops who do stay in the border region travel to dangerous locales, but generally after an attack has occurred. Given their small numbers and the magnitude of the problem, Mexican troops can do little to pre-empt attacks.

A caveat to the unrest is that electoral politics have become partially dependent on the issue. Mexico will hold presidential elections in July, and the United States will have mid-term elections in November. The border gives politicians issues for their platforms that encompass more than security. Some U.S. politicians point to drug and immigration issues as factors affecting both the country's economy and safety. Many U.S. lawmakers facing November elections hope to prove their leadership and viability by taking strong stances on the issues.

Mexican politicians also use the diplomatic tensions over the border as part of campaigning. Presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, already in the lead, has benefited from the situation. While Lopez Obrador does not depend entirely on his less-than-warm attitude toward the United States to generate support for him, he nevertheless earns points for his rhetoric. His closest competitor, Felipe Calderon, has undoubtedly suffered from the recent U.S.-Mexican tension. Many voters want to see a leader willing (at least ideologically) to distance Mexico from Washington, but Calderon is hamstrung. As a member of Fox's National Action Party and an ardent supporter of U.S. investment in Mexico, he must campaign for votes while looking toward northern business.

The carnage undermining the border region has affected relations between the United States and Mexico, but there is no chance that the strained relationship will split apart soon. Diplomatic tensions will develop and allow politicians to crusade, but ultimately there will be few resolutions to the issues on which they campaign.