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30/12/2007 | Thailand - Political Rumors and Noise

Stratfor Staff

One week before the People Power Party (PPP) is set to announce Thailand’s new coalition government, current Defense Minister Boonrawd Somtas said Dec. 28 that he is just as powerless to rule out a coup in 2008 as he is to rule out a natural disaster.

 

PPP, which is seen widely as the proxy party for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, swept to a victory in the Dec. 23 elections, winning a majority of the 480 parliament seats up for grabs.

It is not the first time the interim military-backed regime has made such meaningless comments, which are designed more to keep Somtas in the media and to keep the political rumor mill churning than to indicate real interim military regime intentions.

So far, the revered Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej has stood neutral and apart from the typical drama of Thai politics — as he has always done. The king typically stays away unless violence or a security meltdown is around the corner; all signs indicate that neither is impending.

Even though Thaksin’s proxy party is in power now, the time has not yet come for him to start calling the shots. Nevertheless, that Thaksin has declared his intentions to return home by April 2008 indicate the confidence with which he thinks a safe return is possible, and hence of the PPP’s ability to retain the driving seat in the new government.

The new government is a coalition government, and will be a mix of formerly pro- and anti- Thaksin elements and neutral parties. Thai politicians operate on the basis of self-opportunism, often flocking to groups that offer the most gains. Just as Thaksin’s former party, Thai Rak Thai (TRT), gained dominance in its coalition government (which existed before the September 2006 coup) by absorbing existing fringe parties and members of parliament, so PPP is now in the process of beckoning to smaller political factions — such as Puea Pandin, Matchima Thippathai and Ruam Jai Chat Pattana — to merge into the ruling coalition.

It will take a few months for the main power groupings to take shape. Political noise, but not violence, will dominate Thailand’s political landscape for the coming months. Factions are still fluid and forming, and politicians are all realigning themselves to get into positions of power.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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