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31/10/2006 | HONDURAS-Honduras' Operation Thunder: The Effort to Stem Rising Crime

Stratfor Staff

The number of reported kidnappings involving the children of wealthy families in Honduras increased from three in 2005 to 18 during the first eight months of 2006. Despite a government crackdown on crime, a lasting solution to the problem is unlikely -- leaving potential victims to fend for themselves.

 

In response to the increase in kidnappings for ransom and other crimes in Honduras, President Manuel Zelaya Rosales launched Operation Thunder on Aug. 30, increasing the number of police and military troops in the streets and conducting raids against suspected criminals. The crackdown is occurring in Honduras' main cities, including Tegucigalpa, the capital, as well as San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba, Tocoa, Choluteca, El Progreso, Danli, Juticalpa and Catacamas. In Tegucigalpa, authorities flooded the streets with 3,000 additional military and police personnel, resulting in 172 arrests in the first 12 hours and 1,600 in the first week. Many weapons also have been seized.

So far, the kidnappers have mainly targeted the children of wealthy Hondurans and wealthy dual U.S.-Honduran citizens. Although not targeted for political reasons, foreigners, including Americans, have been abducted in several cases simply because they appear wealthier than the average Honduran. Abducting an American or a citizen from another powerful country, however, can be more trouble than it is worth because such an act is likely to result in intervention from the FBI, CIA or the equivalent of those bodies in the victim's country.

Although no child of a wealthy family has been reported kidnapped since Operation Thunder began, kidnappings often go unreported because victims' families are reluctant to involve local law enforcement because they fear police officers might be involved in the kidnapping or that authorities will botch the recovery. Instead, the families prefer to attempt to handle the ransom payment themselves or through their businesses.

Although the rise in the number of kidnappings this year has not been attributed to any one group, possible suspects include the Mara Salvatrucha and Calle 18 gangs, regular small-time criminal gangs and members of the country's police and security establishment. The Maras are the most organized criminal organization in the country, and have an extensive network that reaches throughout Central America, Mexico and the United States. Furthermore, the combination of poverty and ineffective law enforcement and judiciary systems creates an environment in which small-time criminal cells can operate with relative ease.

Because of the high poverty rate in Honduras, law enforcement and security forces are hampered by resource and manpower limitations, meaning criminals often are better paid, better trained and better equipped than those charged with providing citizen protection. There reportedly are 45,000 total gang members in Honduras, compared with 10,000-12,000 military personnel and 8,000 police officers currently on the job. (Though an additional 1,300 officers are scheduled to be hired in December). These factors severely inhibit the deterrent effect on crime and the authorities' ability to respond to it. Steps are being taken to alleviate this shortcoming, but they are unlikely to rectify the root problems, which are a weak judiciary system and a culture of corruption in the country's law enforcement and security organizations.

Criminals in Honduras, particularly Maras, can be violent and brazen, sometimes striking in public in broad daylight. In September 2006, two armed gunmen staged an apparent robbery and kidnapping attempt against a Honduran woman as she waited to pick up her child outside Tegucigalpa's American School. Although she was able to evade her assailants and seek help from the school's guard office, the attackers fired a shot that hit her car.

In response to the increase in kidnappings, potential victims will be compelled to increase their families' protection, employing bodyguards and drivers and taking better security measures at home. Because of their wealth, many of these families can afford the increased protection or can send their children to schools in the United States or Europe for safety. Consequently, as has happened in Guatemala, Mexico and elsewhere when potential victims have taken such measures, the kidnappers will move to softer target sets, such as less-affluent families or lower-level managers of multinational corporations -- those who have fewer resources at their disposal.

In the near term, U.S. citizens unlikely will be specifically targeted for kidnapping because the perpetrators fear the U.S. government and its resources more than they do Honduran law enforcement. That could change, however, should the security environment in Honduras deteriorate and overall crime increase to the point that local law enforcement becomes completely overwhelmed.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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