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21/04/2006 | Bush, Hu and the 'Accidental' Journalist

Stratfor Staff

Chinese President Hu Jintao received a rousing welcome in Washington, D.C. on Thursday -- complete with a fife and drum corps, a red carpet and a Falun Gong activist shouting during the first moments of his speech.

 

Wang Wenyi, a Chinese-American doctor who has written for the Falun Gong-related Epoch Times and was a main speaker at a March 27 Falun Gong rally in Lafayette Park near the White House, was whisked away by security personnel -- but only after she had shouted at Hu for several minutes from the press area, calling for him to stop persecuting Falun Gong practitioners and to stop killing Chinese people. Though Hu managed to keep his composure and continue his speech after the interruption, it was an inauspicious start to a day that was a far cry from his much warmer welcome by Microsoft founder Bill Gates and other business leaders in Washington state earlier in the week.

Wang apparently was granted access to the press area because of her affiliation with the Epoch Times, in order to report on Hu's arrival, and government officials told news media she had been on the White House grounds before without causing problems. While that may be the case, there was something odd about her admittance to the grounds for Hu's arrival.

Thursday's disruption was not the first time Wang had confronted a Chinese president about the Falun Gong. On July 25, 2001, she managed to slip through a security cordon surrounding then-President Jiang Zemin, while he was taking an unscheduled tour of Mdina on a visit to Malta. Wang came face to face with Jiang and confronted him over crackdowns and killings of Falun Gong practitioners, before security officers pulled her away. In that incident, Jiang called her back and spoke to her briefly, reportedly telling her that Falun Gong practitioners were killing themselves -- a common commentary in Chinese state media at the time, which was meant to help justify the government's crackdown against the organization.

Wang's previous encounter with Jiang, and her participation as a key speaker at the March 27 rally in Washington, D.C., should have been enough to tip off the White House that she might cause trouble at Hu's arrival ceremony. Either White House security totally missed these prior events in security reviews before approving Wang's press pass, or they overlooked them. It would not, at first, seem plausible that her history could have been overlooked -- since one of the mandates of the security services is to protect the president from such embarrassments -- but on close review, it appears to be the more likely of the two scenarios.

Hu's visit to Washington state was a glowing success -- at least from a public relations standpoint. He visited with Bill Gates, answered questions from the press and promised to help stamp out Chinese violations of intellectual property rights. The entourage traveling in conjunction with Hu's visit signed some $16 billion in trade deals during that leg of the trip, all entailing Chinese purchases of U.S. goods. But while Hu tried to endear himself to the U.S. business community (attempting to leverage its economic and political power to soften administration and congressional pressure on China over trade imbalances and yuan valuations) -- and to bolster his image back home in China -- the Washington state half of the trip did little to shape the Washington, D.C. half. In fact, the state-run People's Daily published an online opinion article highlighting the differences between the two Washington trips, calling the Seattle visit one of economic cooperation and noting that the District of Columbia visit was characterized by disputes.

For President George W. Bush, there was little good that could have come from Hu's visit. The Chinese leader was not going to suddenly ditch the constraints on the yuan, nor was he going to miraculously reverse the trade deficit or the nuclear courses of Iran and North Korea. The best Bush could have hoped for out of the visit was an opportunity to appear strong -- to regain some points with his own domestic audience. And for that, he needed to take a little wind out of Hu's sails. The pro-Falun Gong shouts of Wang did just that, and the China-threat factions in the United States will snicker over Hu's loss of "face" (all while sipping coffee out of mugs made in China).

But for Hu, who also had low expectations for the D.C. portion of his trip, the implications from the apparent snub (Wang was, after all, both given access to the grounds and allowed to shout for minutes before being silenced and removed) will be mixed. The visit was planned some time ago, after an initial summit with Bush was postponed by Hurricane Katrina. And within Chinese political circles, there was relatively strong opposition to the idea of Hu meeting with Bush at this time: Beijing needed little from the United States, but Washington would no doubt make many demands of Hu.

Compounding the troubles for Hu is the fact that his economic reforms are not entirely popular. His plans to shift wealth and investment from the coastal provinces to the interior, western and northeastern provinces of China are raising opposition from various levels within the government.

By playing up the warm welcome he received in Washington state and contrasting that to his cool reception in Washington, D.C., Hu can portray the visit as one that shows the two-faced approach of the United States -- Americans profiting off of China while denigrating China's independence. This might play well with the masses, which are susceptible to such spin and frequently complain about U.S. "hegemony" (all while buying American products).

As for the Chinese political leaders who advised against the trip, Hu will find it difficult proving them wrong -- and may find himself being put on the spot to show what good possibly could have come from the visit.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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