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24/03/2006 | IRAN - Reading Between the Lines of Khamenei's Blessing

Stratfor Staff

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has formally approved U.S.-Iranian negotiations on Iraq. Since the Iranian national security apparatus would not have publicly agreed to a dialogue with the United States had the move not been sanctioned by the highest echelons, the real purpose of Khamenei's March 21 announcement is to send a signal to Washington and dissenting voices in the clerical establishment. And that message is: The Iranian government is committed to the negotiations and is not being pressured.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, said March 21 that he approves of talks between U.S. and Iranian officials on Iraq, but he warned that Washington must not try to "bully" Tehran. Speaking hours after U.S. President George W. Bush spoke in favor of the talks, Khamenei said in a speech carried on state television, "If the Iranian officials can make the U.S. understand some issues about Iraq, there is no problem with the negotiations." The top Iranian leader, however, warned, "But if the talks mean opening a venue for bullying and imposition by the deceitful party, then [they] will be forbidden." Earlier, Bush said in a news conference in Washington that American officials would show Iran "what's right or wrong in their activities inside of Iraq."

Although the media will pitch this as Khamenei's blessing of the U.S.-Iranian talks, the reality is that neither the Iranians nor the Americans would have gone public with the matter had Khamenei not signed off on the idea. The purpose of today's statement is to send a message to the United States and to the domestic audience -- especially ultraconservatives within the ruling clerical establishment -- that Tehran is committed to a dialogue with Washington regarding Iraq. More important, Khamenei is trying to convey the idea that Iran is not behaving under any duress and will pull out at the first sign of trouble.

While it helps counter any negative effects on the domestic front, appearing tough before entering into negotiations is a typical way for political actors to try and gain an edge and be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Khamenei's warning the Bush administration not to bully Iran is in keeping with Iran's long-held demand that Washington treat it with respect in any negotiation; if and when an agreement is worked out between the two sides, it does not want to be seen doing about-face as did Libya in 2003.

Khamenei's statement also suggests the importance that Iran attaches to dealings with the United States and, even more so, to what happens in Iraq. The idea of U.S.-Iranian discussions on Iraq also has placed the nuclear issue on the backburner, which -- as Stratfor has said all along -- makes it easier for the Iranians to advance their objectives in Iraq.

On one hand, Khamenei's statements will resonate in Washington as a positive development from which tangible results can emerge. On the other hand, they are a sign that the process is going to be excruciatingly difficult.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

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23/12/2006\|	Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
23/12/2006\|	Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
23/12/2006\|	Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
23/12/2006\|	Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
20/12/2006\|	Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
20/12/2006\|	Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
20/12/2006\|	Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
20/12/2006\|	Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
16/12/2006\|	A Saudi Power Struggle?
16/12/2006\|	A Saudi Power Struggle?
16/12/2006\|	Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
16/12/2006\|	Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
16/12/2006\|	A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
16/12/2006\|	A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
15/12/2006\|	Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
15/12/2006\|	Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
15/12/2006\|	Russia's Plans for Iran
15/12/2006\|	Russia's Plans for Iran
15/12/2006\|	Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
15/12/2006\|	Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
12/12/2006\|	U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
12/12/2006\|	U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
12/12/2006\|	India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
12/12/2006\|	India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
12/12/2006\|	Calderon's Presidential Challenges
12/12/2006\|	Calderon's Presidential Challenges
05/12/2006\|	Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
05/12/2006\|	Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
05/12/2006\|	The Venezuelan Vote
05/12/2006\|	The Venezuelan Vote
05/12/2006\|	EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
05/12/2006\|	EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
02/12/2006\|	India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
02/12/2006\|	India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
29/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
29/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
29/11/2006\|	Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
29/11/2006\|	Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
22/11/2006\|	Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
22/11/2006\|	Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
22/11/2006\|	Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
22/11/2006\|	Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
18/11/2006\|	Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
18/11/2006\|	Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
17/11/2006\|	Global Market Brief- What the Gazprom - ENI Deal Does -- and Does Not -- Mean
16/11/2006\|	Industry's New Stake in Kyoto
14/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Al Qaeda and the Airport Threat
13/11/2006\|	INDIA - The Abduction of a High-Tech Executive's Son
11/11/2006\|	CHINA - Blocking Investment to Promote Stability
11/11/2006\|	U.S., Russia: The Politics Behind the WTO Talks
11/11/2006\|	Colombia's Multifaceted Security Problem
08/11/2006\|	MEXICO - Jumping on the Oaxaca Bandwagon
07/11/2006\|	Mexico City Bombings: An Escalation in Tensions
07/11/2006\|	Global Market Brief
04/11/2006\|	AUSTRIA - The Kidnapping Plot Against a Crystal Heiress
04/11/2006\|	Iraq Without Bechtel
01/11/2006\|	Europe: The Taliban's Broadening Scope
31/10/2006\|	HONDURAS-Honduras' Operation Thunder: The Effort to Stem Rising Crime
31/10/2006\|	MEXICO - A Mexican Standoff Worsens
31/10/2006\|	BOLIVIA - BRAZIL: La Paz's Natural Gas Dilemma
28/10/2006\|	BRAZIL-Strength in Victory, Weakness in Office
28/10/2006\|	BANGLADESH - Conditions Conducive to a Coup?
24/10/2006\|	IRAQ - The Coming Change in U.S. Strategy
24/10/2006\|	IRAQ- Big Plans, Major Obstacles, for the Oil Sector
24/10/2006\|	Somalia's Islamists Court Mainstream Muslims
24/10/2006\|	SUDAN-Khartoum Moves Against Foreign Intervention in Darfur
21/10/2006\|	Japan's Nuclear Message for China
21/10/2006\|	U.S.: Al Qaeda and the U.S. Midterm Elections
18/10/2006\|	Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 1
18/10/2006\|	Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 2 - South Asia: Still Feeling the 'Washington Effect'
18/10/2006\|	The EU Scrambles for a Russia Policy
18/10/2006\|	Chemical Risk: Mass Storage and Transport as Weapons, Not Targets
18/10/2006\|	RUSSIA - Sunset for Shtokman?
18/10/2006\|	RUSSIA, BULGARIA, GREECE- The Pipe Dream Pipeline
14/10/2006\|	IRELAND -The Latest 'Tiger Kidnapping' Trend
14/10/2006\|	CHINA - Using Unions To Access Company Records
14/10/2006\|	PAKISTAN - Rockets, Coup Rumors and Musharraf
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA - Americans as Targets of Ultranationalist Street Gangs
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA -The Kremlin's Hands-On Energy Policy
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA -The Kremlin Puts LUKoil Under Pressure
07/10/2006\|	North Korea: Beijing's Diminishing Power of Persuasion
05/10/2006\|	Nigeria: The Threat Against Bonny Island
05/10/2006\|	Kuwait: Moving to Become an Oil Market-Mover?
05/10/2006\|	Dirty Bombs: Weapons of Mass Disruption
29/09/2006\|	SOMALIA - Ethiopia's Islamist Fears
28/09/2006\|	IRAN, RUSIA - A Nuclear Marriage of Convenience
27/09/2006\|	MEXICO - Passing the Oaxacan Buck
27/09/2006\|	Hezbollah's Iranian Connection
27/09/2006\|	SOUTH KOREA - Rethinking its Military Future
24/09/2006\|	THAILAND - A Possible Respite in Southern Violence
23/09/2006\|	BOLIVIA - Military Bases in the Lowlands
23/09/2006\|	KENYA - Corruption as Catalyst for Crime
23/09/2006\|	The World Bank at a Crossroads
30/08/2006\|	SRI LANKA- Strategic Potential on Hold
30/08/2006\|	A Polite Meeting About Missiles
27/08/2006\|	EU: Energy Security and the Nuclear Genie
02/08/2006\|	SOMALIA - Islamists and Clan Politics
02/08/2006\|	CUBA - A New Castro Assumes the Old Power
30/07/2006\|	AFRICA - Toward a Three-Way Conflict in the Horn of Africa
30/07/2006\|	U.S., India: Hammering Out a Nuclear Deal
28/07/2006\|	Chavez's World Tour
28/07/2006\|	Perception and Reality in the Oil Market
23/07/2006\|	MEXICO - Acapulco as a Main Front in the Drug Wars
19/07/2006\|	IRAN - Using the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict Advantageously
15/07/2006\|	The Economic Impact of an Israeli-Lebanese War
14/07/2006\|	Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder
06/07/2006\|	MEXICO - Facing Its Greatest Democratic Test
06/07/2006\|	BOLIVIA - A Highland Constitution and Lowland Discontent
06/07/2006\|	USA-The GOP Challenge: Retaining Religious Voters
06/07/2006\|	SLOVAKIA - An Unlikely Coalition
30/06/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/06/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/06/2006\|	Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
30/06/2006\|	Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
30/06/2006\|	Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
30/06/2006\|	Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
26/06/2006\|	China: Crisis and Implications
26/06/2006\|	China: Crisis and Implications
24/06/2006\|	UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
24/06/2006\|	UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
22/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
22/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
20/06/2006\|	ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
20/06/2006\|	ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
20/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
20/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
20/06/2006\|	MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
20/06/2006\|	MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
20/06/2006\|	WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
20/06/2006\|	WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
05/06/2006\|	Key Steps to Avoid Falling Victim to Crime
04/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Acquiring -- and Practicing -- the Necessary Skills (Part III)
03/06/2006\|	Cosmetic Change in China's Economy
02/06/2006\|	Mexico: Of Soccer and Electoral Strategy
02/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Analysis and Planning II
01/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Assessing Threats and Vulnerabilities
01/06/2006\|	U.S. Perceptions of a Chinese Threat
31/05/2006\|	Bicycles: Another Lethal Weapon in the Militant Arsenal
29/05/2006\|	Peru, Colombia: Elections and Second Thoughts on Populism
28/05/2006\|	Kaibiles: The New Lethal Force in the Mexican Drug Wars
23/05/2006\|	The U.S. Immigration Debate's Fallout in Mexico
17/05/2006\|	EU, Latin America: Summit, Or Pique?
17/05/2006\|	Brazil: When Violence Reaches a Tipping Point
13/05/2006\|	Beheadings in Mexico: The Foreign Element in Mexico's Drug Wars
07/05/2006\|	Bolivia's Energy Nationalization: Opting for Short-Term Gains
07/05/2006\|	Diplomatic Snubs and Sino-U.S. Relations
06/05/2006\|	China, Russia, U.S.: Washington's Strategic Insults
06/05/2006\|	U.S.: CIA Director Porter Goss' Resignation
04/05/2006\|	No Relief at the Gas Pumps
02/05/2006\|	Bolivia and Leftward Movement in Latin America
02/05/2006\|	Bolivia: Nationalized Oil and Gas
30/04/2006\|	COLOMBIA- A Slaying Threatens the President's Re-Election
25/04/2006\|	Repsol in Bolivia: When Business Serves Foreign Policy
24/04/2006\|	The Shiite Schisms
24/04/2006\|	Al Qaeda's New Focus on Sudan
23/04/2006\|	Iraq: Jaafari Steps Aside -- Not Down
23/04/2006\|	Russia: Pipeline Monopolies Stymie Infrastructure Improvement
21/04/2006\|	The Pakistan-Jihadist Connection
21/04/2006\|	The Shiite Schisms
21/04/2006\|	Bush, Hu and the 'Accidental' Journalist
18/04/2006\|	Vietnam: The Party Congress Tackles Corruption
18/04/2006\|	Countdown to a Coup in Nepal?
18/04/2006\|	Russia: The Centralization Trend Continues
18/04/2006\|	PNA: Hamas' Message in the Tel Aviv Attack
17/04/2006\|	India, Venezuela: Caracas Diversifies its Oil Markets
13/04/2006\|	North Korea: Weighing the Benefits of the Nuclear Card
13/04/2006\|	Idealism, Realism and U.S. Foreign Policy
10/04/2006\|	The Saudi Militant Threat in Israel and the Palestinian Territories
08/04/2006\|	Political Instability in Europe's Core
06/04/2006\|	Italy's Attraction for Islamist Militants
06/04/2006\|	Ukraine: An Orange Reunion?
05/04/2006\|	Venezuela's Oil Dreams
30/03/2006\|	RUSSIA: WTO Accession Still Not a Done Deal -- From Any Point of View
28/03/2006\|	ITALY - Running the Electoral Numbers
28/03/2006\|	Thailand's Political Unrest: The Significance for Multinationals
27/03/2006\|	BRAZIL- Continuity at the Finance Ministry
24/03/2006\|	CHINA-Pumping an Iranian LNG Deal for Oil
24/03/2006\|	Residential Security - PDF
24/03/2006\|	CORRUPTION-Execution in China: Sending a Message to Big Business
24/03/2006\|	SPAIN- ETA's Cease-Fire and its Search for Viability
24/03/2006\|	GERMANY -The German Weapons - Smuggling Scandal: Opportunities for Merkel
22/03/2006\|	The Unlikely Terrorist Threat Against U.S. Agriculture
22/03/2006\|	INDONESIA- Violent Protests: A Message to Multinationals?
20/02/2006\|	INDONESIA-Yudhoyono's Plan for Indonesia's Resurrection
20/02/2006\|	Nigeria - Same News, Different Network
18/02/2006\|	India: Hopes for Nuclear -- and Geopolitical -- Power
11/02/2006\|	India: King Abdullah Gets the Royal Treatment
11/02/2006\|	Drugs, Weapons and Violence: The U.S.-Mexican Border's Hot Commodities
11/02/2006\|	Mexico, U.S.: Election-Year Rhetoric on Both Sides of the Border
07/02/2006\|	China's Motive in Oil Deals with India
26/01/2006\|	The Bin Laden Tape and the Strike in Damadola
25/01/2006\|	Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near-Great Powers -- Part II
22/01/2006\|	Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near -Great Powers -- Part I
19/01/2006\|	EU: Austria's Presidential Problem
19/01/2006\|	Taiwan: Chen Risks China's Ire to Visit Gadhafi
14/01/2006\|	Thailand and the Possible Terrorist Threat to Tourists
14/01/2006\|	Travel Security: The Importance of Understanding the Risks
12/01/2006\|	Iran's latest nuclear provocation : the resumption of nuclear fuel
12/01/2006\|	Arms Market: Accident or careful planning?
06/01/2006\|	Russian gas: This is not all about Moscow -- Germany has a stake as well
20/12/2005\|	Evo Morales won Bolivia's presidential elections Dec.18: Morales Signals Left, Turns Right
01/08/2005\|	Argentina: Kirchner's Populism and a Darkening Economic Future
06/01/2005\|	Iran - Rice: 'If negotiations have been exhausted, we have the votes'

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Peoples of the Earth | Martin E. Andersen

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