One big device, with 200kg of explosives, wrecked the 14-storey barracks in the northern city of Burgos on July 29th but, surprisingly, did not kill anyone. Sixty-five people (among them children) suffered only slight wounds. The next day in Majorca, a limpet bomb under a police vehicle killed two. This raised questions about whether police had let down their guard after several years of successes against ETA.

The attacks have dented the belief among Spaniards that the group had been largely defeated, and raised flagging morale among ETA’s militants. The long-term picture, though, remains unchanged: ETA is in steep decline. Founded during General Francisco Franco’s dictatorship, ETA is becoming more anachronistic by the year. Its ability to inflict violence has declined steadily since the group was at its strongest in 1980, when it killed 92 people in a single year (see chart).

Around 750 ETA members are in jail. ETA’s political fronts have been banned and no longer take part in everyday Basque politics. Decades of bloodshed have achieved remarkably little. The three provinces that make up the Basque region in northern Spain already enjoy considerable self-government. ETA’s aim of a separate state made up of four Spanish provinces and a part of south-west France is a pipe-dream; few people seem moved by the idea.

A formally recognised right to self-determination, which ETA would probably accept as second-best, also shows no sign of happening. In many ways, indeed, ETA is an obstacle to its own aims. Violence strengthens the resolve of Spanish governments, and weakens potential allies. After a serious attempt at talks before the latest ceasefire collapsed in 2007, the Socialist prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, now leaves the matter in the hands of the security forces.

Police released the images of six suspects who may have planted the recent bombs. They were fresh-faced young Basques—a reminder that ETA can still find new recruits. Recent history suggests, however, that all six will eventually end up behind bars.