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09/11/2012 | US Congress - Much ado about nothing

The Economist Staff

The new Congress looks almost exactly like the last.

 

LOGIC dictates that in the election following a banner year for one of America’s two main parties, the other will regain much of the lost ground. But that logic was subverted in this year’s congressional election. The Democrats had talked of winning back their lost majority in the House of Representatives after forfeiting a sobering 63 seats in 2010. But even if they hold on to minuscule leads in the few races still outstanding, they will pick up at most eight seats out of the 25 they needed. Meanwhile, Republicans had expected to win control of the Senate, since Democrats had a majority of just three and were defending 23 seats to the Republicans’ ten. Instead, it was the Democrats who made advances, increasing their number to 54 of the chamber’s 100 seats, plus one more who is expected to join them.

Ironically, the Republicans’ surprising resilience in the House and their unexpected retreat in the Senate were both of the party’s own making. By rigging the recent nationwide round of redistricting in their favour, Republicans were able to shore up many of the representatives first elected in 2010 who would otherwise have been vulnerable. But by selecting over-doctrinaire and gaffe-prone candidates for several Senate races, they scuppered their chances of winning control of the chamber for the second election running.

In the House, Democratic challengers do seem to have unseated some of the Republicans’ most outspoken freshmen, such as Allen West of Florida and Joe Walsh of Illinois. One also came within a percentage point of ousting Michele Bachmann, an incumbent of three terms, tea-party heroine and flash-in-the-pan presidential candidate. But of the 87 Republicans first elected in 2010, Democrats seem to have shown only 11 the door.

Several Democrats also appear to have prevailed in districts Republicans designed to ensure their defeat, including John Barrow of Georgia, Jim Matheson of Utah and Mike McIntyre of North Carolina. But still more succumbed to such gerrymanders, in Indiana, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, among other places. Democrats returned the favour and redistricted some Republicans out of office, most notably in Illinois and Maryland. California’s new non-partisan system of redistricting also provided them with a few gains. But Republicans controlled redistricting in far more places, and were able to steer new seats in Georgia, South Carolina, Texas and Utah to their own. The advantage they gained in 2010 by sweeping many state legislatures just before the redrawing of the maps will endure for a couple more elections at least.

If the Republican resilience in the House qualifies as something of an achievement, the party’s performance in the Senate was an utter fiasco. It managed to pick up only one Democratic seat, in Nebraska. Another that had looked like a certain gain, in Missouri, was lost after the Republican candidate, Todd Akin, suggested that women could avoid becoming pregnant by sheer force of will in cases of “legitimate rape”. Similarly, the party lost a previously safe seat in Indiana after the moderate incumbent, Dick Lugar, lost the Republican primary to a right-wing challenger, Richard Mourdock. Mr Mourdock had already alienated many voters by denouncing compromise with Democrats as surrender, opposing the Obama administration’s auto bail-out despite the state’s many jobs in car-making and questioning the legitimacy of popular government programmes such as Medicare and Social Security. But he sealed his defeat by making an antediluvian statement of his own about rape. All this was eerily reminiscent of 2010 when outlandish candidates prevented the Republicans from seizing three vulnerable Democratic seats.

Another loss came in Maine, where Olympia Snowe, a determined moderate, is retiring. She blames her departure on the over-partisan, confrontational and unproductive atmosphere in the Senate. Cynics suggest that she did not have the stomach for a primary challenge from a more doctrinaire candidate. Either way, the party’s move to the right seems to have cost it the seat, as Mrs Snowe declined to endorse the Republican candidate, who subsequently lost to an independent former governor, Angus King. He is expected to side with the Democrats.

The Republicans also failed to capture Democrat-held seats in two reliably conservative states that Mitt Romney carried with ease, Montana and North Dakota. The losing candidates were both members of the House of Representatives, something their opponents turned to their advantage. They painted the Republican majority in the House as extreme and irresponsible, in contrast to the more measured and pragmatic approach to legislating they promised to take.

Despite the surprising victories of several centrist Democrats in both the Senate and the House, both chambers have become more polarised. In Massachusetts, for example, a left-wing Democrat, Elizabeth Warren, replaced a moderate Republican, Scott Brown, in the Senate, while in Nebraska a right-wing Republican replaced a moderate Democrat. In Texas, a rigidly conservative Republican replaced a slightly more pliable one. In the House, the “blue dog” caucus of centrist Democrats was slashed from 24 to 15. By the same token, the “sorting” of the country into red and blue states continued, as the Democrats lost their only House seats in Arkansas and Oklahoma, and one of their two in Kentucky, while Republicans lost their last two House seats in New England (both in New Hampshire). None of that bodes particularly well for the chances of bipartisan co-operation next year.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House