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Economia y Finanzas  
 
17/02/2006 | Energy in South America: The explosive nature of gas

The Economist Staff

Glance at our map of natural gas supply and demand in South America, and at first sight the “Great Pipeline of the South” promoted by Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez, seems to make perfect sense.

 

This 8,000km (5,000 mile) duct to Buenos Aires, slicing through the Amazon rainforest, would deliver 150m cubic metres a day of Venezuela's vast, but little-developed, gas reserves to energy-short consumers in the southern cone. Last month, Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and his Argentine counterpart, Néstor Kirchner, agreed to study the project.

Yet look more closely, and this $20 billion project sums up all that is wrong with South America's approach to natural gas. It makes no economic sense: beyond 3,000km, it is cheaper to liquefy and ship natural gas than pipe it. The environmental costs are troubling. For consumers, Russia's recent disruption of gas exports to Ukraine highlighted the perils of pipeline dependence. The motives of Mr Chávez are purely political: he would love to deprive the United States of gas in the name of South American integration.

Fortunately, the pipeline looks like a pipedream. It is only the most egregious example of the way in which gas has provoked more passion than sense in South America. The region is blessed with an abundance of gas. But the biggest reserves are in countries whose governments are least inclined to treat it like an ordinary commodity. “Shortages amid plenty are the underlying irony of it all,” says Jed Bailey of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consultancy in Massachusetts. Mating producers with consumers would be a boon to both. It would also be a welcome sign that the region's leftward drift is not a flight from economic reality.

The problems began in Argentina and Bolivia, two of the three biggest producers. In 2002, Argentina converted gas tariffs from dollars to devalued pesos and froze them. The price of gas, which accounts for half of Argentina's energy consumption, plunged by two-thirds. As the economy recovered from financial collapse, demand boomed. Supply—unsurprisingly—did not keep pace. Deterred by low prices, energy companies stopped exploring. Argentina's proven gas reserves fell by 35% between 2000 and 2004. Facing winter shortages, the government cut exports to Chile.

Mr Kirchner has now allowed prices for large consumers to rise to international market levels. But residential prices remain frozen, and the investment climate remains unpredictable. Enarsa, a new state firm, has signed deals with Brazil's Petrobras and Spain's Repsol for offshore exploration. But at current prices there is little incentive for offshore production, says Luciano Gremone of Standard & Poor's, a credit-rating agency.

To ease its self-inflicted shortage, Argentina looks to Bolivia. That poor and landlocked country is the region's energy hope—and headache. Its gas reserves rank second only to those of Venezuela. It already exports around 30m cubic metres a day, mainly to Brazil but also to Argentina. With more investment, it could quickly double those exports, and add more to gas-hungry Chile. While Argentina will need seven years to develop fresh supplies, a second pipeline from Bolivia could be built in four, according to Marco Aurélio Tavares of Gas Energy, a consultancy. For Brazil, too, Bolivian gas “is the ideal solution”, says a manager at an energy firm.

That is what foreign companies—Petrobras, Repsol, France's Total, and British Gas—were counting on when they invested $4.9 billion in Bolivia between 1997 and 2004. They were not prepared for the political backlash. Radical movements denounced Bolivia's leaders for handing its natural patrimony to predatory foreigners. A plan to ship liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Mexico and the United States via Chile had roughly the same effect as cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad in the Middle East: not a molecule of Bolivian gas would pass through Chile until it surrendered the coastline it stole in a 19th century war, shouted demonstrators who blocked roads for weeks on end, toppling two presidents and demanding nationalisation.

In December, the gas warriors won power, with the election as president with a clear mandate of Evo Morales, one of their leaders. The next few months may thus define South America's energy picture for years ahead.

The energy companies in Bolivia are already operating under conditions which they consider barely tolerable. A law approved last year under public pressure raised royalties, almost doubling the government's take from gas. That allowed it to begin paying civil servants' wages on time while cutting the fiscal deficit. But the law tore up the terms on which the companies had invested. They are enclosing protest letters with every cheque.

Mr Morales has a historic opportunity to use Bolivia's gas to overcome the country's backwardness. But that depends on two ambitious deals. The first might be an agreement to supply Chile with gas in return for Bolivian access to the sea. Chile's president, Ricardo Lagos, attended Mr Morales's inauguration. Mr Morales will be on hand when Michelle Bachelet is sworn in next month as Mr Lagos's successor.

Second, there is scope for a deal with the multinationals. Mr Morales has made soothing noises, promising “nationalisation” without expropriation. He has invited the companies to become “partners” of YPFB, the revived state oil firm. If that means surrendering both their gas and the right to set export prices, the firms will want compensation and/or big tax breaks on future investment. The main hope for compromise is that rupture could be worse for both sides. The companies would be forced to write off their investments. The government could seek deals with state oil companies in Venezuela and elsewhere but would face lawsuits in international courts.

Expanding Bolivia's pipelines to Argentina and Brazil, and developing the gas to fill them, would cost $5.3 billion. “With these taxes and regional prices, investment is not viable,” says Mr Tavares. The new head of YPFB says that Bolivia will raise export prices to Argentina and Brazil.

Demand for gas in Brazil is rising sharply. The country risks an electricity shortage in 2009 unless it finds new sources of gas. The squeeze may be temporary: new finds offshore could turn Brazil into a gas exporter after 2012. Brazil's flirtation with Mr Chávez's pipeline may be a way to pressure Bolivia.

Chile is roaming for gas as well. Having all but given up on Bolivia, it has talked of importing from Peru. Unlike its competitors, Peru has courted investors. Repsol is among those investing in a $2.2 billion LNG project. But most of that gas is destined for Mexico and the United States. Chile is wary of dependence on Peru, with which its relations are often tense.

Getting gas right means allowing economic reason to prevail over political passion. Surprisingly, Venezuela's Mr Chávez may soon provide an example. He is about to lay the first bit of a 215km pipeline which will carry gas from Colombia. Joining him will be a neighbour who is a political adversary, Colombia's conservative president, Álvaro Uribe.

Hacer - Washington DC (Estados Unidos)

 



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28/03/2010|
20/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House