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07/09/2011 | Brazil’s economy - Changing direction

The Economist Staff

ON AUGUST 31st Brazil’s monetary-policy committee decided to cut the Central Bank’s benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, to 12%. It was the committee’s most unpredictable meeting for many months. Just a week earlier, analysts were split between those who pointed to inflation at 7.1%, above the 6.5% ceiling of the bank’s target, as reason to expect another rise—the year’s sixth—and those who felt that turmoil abroad and a cooling economy at home were reason to expect the committee to stay its hand

 

But on August 29th the calculations changed. The president, Dilma Rousseff, said that because tax receipts this year had been higher than expected, an extra 10 billion reais ($6.25 billion) would be set aside to pay interest on public debt. Later that day the finance minister, Guido Mantega, spelt out the implications for monetary policy. Raising the primary fiscal surplus (from 3.1% to about 3.4% of GDP) would open up space to cut rates, he said, “whenever the Central Bank thinks it is possible”. But analysts were still surprised by the speed and scale of the bank’s reaction.

The timing of Mr Mantega’s announcement—the day before the monetary policy committee started its deliberations—raised some eyebrows. Though in recent years the Central Bank has been largely free to set interest rates without government interference, it is not formally independent. The bank’s governor, Alexandre Tombini, is closer to the finance ministry than was his predecessor, Henrique Meirelles.

Others welcomed better co-ordination between monetary and fiscal policy. The increase in the primary surplus came from higher tax revenues and cuts in investment, points out Marcelo Carvalho of BNP Paribas, rather than by reining in day-to-day spending as would have been preferable. But it was still an indication that the government wants to improve Brazil’s policy mix. “For years the economy has been run with one foot on the accelerator and one on the brake,” he says, with the government increasing spending and the Central Bank raising interest rates in response (see chart).

If fiscal rectitude leads to lower interest rates, that could allow spending to fall still further. Though Brazil’s stock of public debt is not particularly high, the steep interest rates on government bonds mean debt-service payments are 6% of GDP, higher than in any other G20 country.

The decision to start loosening monetary policy was influenced, too, by a worsening economic outlook abroad and at home. Figures published on August 31st showed industrial output rose by an anaemic 0.5% in July, after a bigger fall the previous month. A strong currency has exposed domestic manufacturers to fierce competition from imports. In June the IMF cut its forecast for Brazil’s economic growth by around half a percentage point for each of 2011 and 2012 (to 4.1% and 3.6% respectively), a sharper revision than for anywhere else except earthquake-hit Japan. It now thinks Brazil will grow less than most other emerging economies.

Inflationary pressures, however, remain strong. A promised rise in the minimum wage next year of 7.5% in real terms will put pressure on government spending, since state pensions must rise in line. Consumer demand is still strong and unemployment at a record low. The first in a series of wage negotiations widely used as benchmarks by other unions ended on August 27th with metalworkers in São Paulo winning a 10% wage increase. Brazil’s Central Bank faces a tricky balancing act for some time to come.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House