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14/10/2016 | The death of the Thai king throws the country into turmoil

The Economist Staff

Thailand’s turbulent politics just became more complicated.

 

THAILAND’S constitutional monarch, Bhumibol Adulyadej, spent much of the past seven years living in an infirmary in the royal heart of the capital, Bangkok. During that time the palace pumped out nearly 40 updates about the 88-year-old sovereign’s treatment—but normally only after each health scare had passed. So when authorities announced on October 9th that the king’s condition was “not stable”, his subjects knew what was coming. By the evening of October 12th a large crowd of well-wishers had gathered to pray in the central courtyard of Siriraj hospital; many came dressed in yellow and pink, two auspicious hues. The next day they were told that the world’s longest-reigning monarch had died.

King Bhumibol’s passing is an important moment for many Thais, most of whom have known no other monarch. The staunchest royalists revere the monarch with a quasi-religious fervour. The king’s portrait is displayed outside public buildings, and at the entrance to myriad villages. Millions of homes, and almost all hotel rooms, contain a picture of him too.

The country’s many constitutions have been vague about the palace’s proper role in public life, but few doubt that the succession is a milestone in Thailand’s fractious politics. In particular, esteem for the monarchy has made it easier for Thailand’s meddlesome army to excuse its frequent coups. It is widely assumed that the succession could tilt the balance in a deep feud which has roiled Thailand’s politics for ten years—a sporadically violent class war of sorts that has pitted middle-class urbanites against the rural poor, and which in 2014 brought a particularly oppressive junta to power. The question on everyone’s lips is, in which direction?

The mourning after
In a statement read on television Prayuth Chan-Ocha, the junta leader, declared a mourning period of one year, during which time civil servants will be expected to wear sombre clothes. He asked the public to refrain from any celebrations for a month, which could mean some entertainment venues may be closed. Many businesses will hope to avoid lengthy enforced shutdowns (jitters over the succession have already bitten a chunk out of the stockmarket, which fell by 8% over the four trading sessions to October 13th). Some multinationals and international organisations have been preparing in case their staff must spend the next few weeks working from home.

Mr Prayuth also confirmed that crown prince, 64-year-old Maha Vajiralongkorn (pictured), would step into his father’s shoes. That clears up one uncertainty, which analysts had worried might cause friction. Though the prince’s claim to the throne is clear he is unpopular among commoners and widely loathed by the elites. For years it was rumoured that after King Bhumibol’s death bigwigs might decide to delay the succession in the hope of elevating a better-loved royal instead.

Fears about how Thailand will change under the crown prince go a long way to explaining why Bangkok’s powerful conservative establishment—a loose clique of soldiers, bureaucrats, rich businessmen and royals—have been dreading the royal handover. Thailand’s stuffy aristocrats find him shamelessly unregal. He has married and divorced three times, including twice to commoners. He has chosen to spend much of his time living outside Thailand, generally in the countryside around Munich in Germany. In July a German tabloid published startling photos of the prince about to board a plane there, wearing a too-small vest which exposed his back, which sported what looked like lurid temporary tattoos.

The junta tried to stop the images spreading (including by briefly detaining the Thai wife of Andrew MacGregor Marshall, a Scottish journalist banned from Thailand who had published them on social media). But it was only the latest in a long string of embarrassing stories which Thais—censored by an archaic lèse-majesté law which allows long jail terms for people who speak ill of the royals—may share only in a whisper. In 2007 leaked video footage showed the crown prince and his then-consort, who was wearing nothing but a G-string and heels, holding a lavish party. The only guest appeared to be Foo Foo, the prince’s elaborately groomed poodle, which until its death last year held the rank of air chief marshal.

Opponents murmur that the prince is not just eccentric but vengeful. Certainly his family life has looked chaotic. Shortly before he divorced her in 2014, half a dozen of his third wife’s relations were arrested and accused of having abused their royal connections for personal gain (her parents were jailed for two-and-a-half years in early 2015). His four grown-up children by his second wife now live in America, not Thailand, in apparent exile.

The risk for Bangkok’s bigwigs is not only that sinecures and other such rewards will soon be diverted to the crown prince’s favourites, but also that the new king’s reign might fatally damage the prestige of the institution from which such goodies flow. The rumour that has most blackened the crown prince’s reputation, at least among the capital’s sophisticates, is that he rubs along well with Thaksin Shinawatra, a divisive former prime minister who was toppled by a coup in 2006 and whom the ruling junta blames for the deep divisions that have destabilised Thailand ever since.

Mr Thaksin won a big victory at the ballot box in 2001 after garnering broad support from impecunious Thais in the country’s rural north and north-east. But his populist and authoritarian administration appalled richer middle-class urbanites, who argued that he had used vast wealth earned from telecoms and media businesses to buy the votes of rubes. Many joined a protest movement agitating for Mr Thaksin’s removal, which the army eventually gratified. Since then the generals and their supporters have been obsessed with stamping out Mr Thaksin’s parties, which continue to win elections by wide margins. The coup which brought the present junta to power in 2014 was launched against Mr Thaksin’s sister Yingluck, who took over his political movement after he left the country and who in 2011 was elected prime minister as his proxy.

At least some of Mr Thaksin’s supporters believe that the new king is well disposed to their cause (this is probably wishful thinking, and their disappointment could yet become a source of unrest). Mr Thaksin has stayed away from Thailand in part because a corruption trial which concluded after he left the country handed him a jail sentence. In principle the new king could wipe the slate clean by pardoning Mr Thaksin, allowing him to return.

These myriad worries explain why for years it was rumoured that at the time of the succession members of Bangkok’s elite would seek to keep the crown prince from the throne. One idea was that they might instead secure the succession for his sister, Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn, who is a more plausible example of the virtues of devotion and abstemiousness which Thailand’s monarch is supposed to personify. Yet among other obstacles this plan would have required defying King Bhumibol’s apparent preference for his only son to succeed him. Such inflammatory tinkering always seemed destined to create more problems than it solved.

That has certainly appeared to be the opinion of the ruling junta. Ostensibly its coup was launched to end months of middle-class protests against the government of Ms Yingluck. But it was doubtless also motivated by fears that the succession could be disorderly—and by the keenness of army leaders to make sure their own positions were secure under any new regime.

The junta has been preparing for the succession by whipping up royalist sentiment, including by building colossal statues of historical kings on army land not far from Bangkok. The military courts have handed sentences as long as 30 years to unfortunates accused of bad-mouthing the monarch, queen or prince. They have seemed to want to scrub the crown prince’s reputation, including by involving him in two star-studded charity bike rides. The prince’s face has appeared, often alongside his father’s, on more and more roadside billboards.

Regal eagles
The conclusion many people draw from this is that the generals and the crown prince have come to some kind of accommodation about what Thailand should look like now that King Bhumibol has left the scene. If so, the chance of friction between the new powers in the palace and the wider Bangkok establishment is minimal. Whether that changes in the long run depends on whether the crown prince ends up being a largely silent sovereign, or an active one—and if the latter, quite what form his interventions will take.

Which advisers get elevated to the new king’s Privy Council will be one of the first clues. Another focus will be looming changes at the Crown Property Bureau, the unusual conglomerate which invests much of the palace’s vast wealth (a reshuffle of senior management was expected even before the swift deterioration of King Bhumibol’s health became known). Its affairs are opaque but involve broad swathes of Thailand’s economy; by some calculations its holdings are worth more than $40 billion. The firm’s board is appointed by the king, and in theory its proceeds are the monarch’s to spend as he pleases. Under King Bhumibol the company ploughed cash into endless royal development projects, and leased out an enormous bank of prime Bangkok property, often at less than the market rate. Any change in leadership and strategy could affect many Thai firms.

Security in Bangkok and the capital will probably remain tight for weeks. It is unlikely that Mr Thaksin’s supporters would see anything to gain from making trouble during national mourning (and their ranks include plenty of proud royalists, too). A more reasonable concern is that ethnic-Malay separatists from Thailand’s southern-most states might seek to disrupt the coming pageantry. One particular separatist faction is now widely accepted to have been responsible for a string of small bombs which detonated in August in seaside towns far beyond their usual stomping grounds. Security forces recently said they had received warning of plots to bring car bombs to the capital.

National elections—the first since the coup of 2014—are supposed to take place next year. But it is very likely that these will be put off while the new regime beds in. The promised polls had anyway started to look meaningless, given that they will be governed by a new constitution scribbled by the junta which will keep the hands of elected politicians firmly tied.

Quite where the succession will lead Thailand in the long term is less clear. To outsiders it seems inevitable that after King Bhumibol’s departure esteem for the palace will slowly shrink. That in turn implies a gradual weakening of the institutions which draw upon the monarchy’s prestige, particularly Thailand’s army. In particular, under the crown prince the colossal prison sentences presently being handed to those convicted of lèse-majesté—a law which in practice is used to chill discussion of all sorts of taboo topics—will only look more abhorrent and absurd.

The question is whether the junta and the rest of the country’s conservative establishment will recognise this, or whether, feeling vulnerable, they will choose to crack down on dissenters even harder. It is up to Thais to decide whether the succession will drag the country into renewed conflict, or force its warring factions to reach a compromise.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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11/04/2011|
11/04/2011|
08/04/2011|
03/04/2011|
27/03/2011|
27/03/2011|
26/03/2011|
26/03/2011|
20/03/2011|
20/03/2011|
19/03/2011|
19/03/2011|
19/03/2011|
13/03/2011|
13/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
11/03/2011|
11/03/2011|
09/03/2011|
07/03/2011|
07/03/2011|
05/03/2011|
04/03/2011|
04/03/2011|
04/03/2011|
18/02/2011|
21/01/2011|
21/01/2011|
16/01/2011|
16/01/2011|
11/01/2011|
08/01/2011|
02/01/2011|
02/01/2011|
29/12/2010|
29/12/2010|
28/12/2010|
26/12/2010|
13/12/2010|
13/12/2010|
08/12/2010|
02/12/2010|
30/11/2010|
30/11/2010|
28/11/2010|
26/11/2010|
26/11/2010|
24/11/2010|
16/11/2010|
16/11/2010|
16/11/2010|
09/11/2010|
07/11/2010|
31/10/2010|
31/10/2010|
31/10/2010|
26/10/2010|
25/10/2010|
22/10/2010|
18/10/2010|
16/10/2010|
16/10/2010|
11/10/2010|
10/10/2010|
10/10/2010|
09/10/2010|
05/10/2010|
28/09/2010|
28/09/2010|
24/09/2010|
24/09/2010|
22/09/2010|
22/09/2010|
15/09/2010|
15/09/2010|
15/09/2010|
12/09/2010|
12/09/2010|
12/09/2010|
12/09/2010|
06/09/2010|
06/09/2010|
05/09/2010|
05/09/2010|
29/08/2010|
29/08/2010|
29/08/2010|
29/08/2010|
22/08/2010|
22/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
14/08/2010|
13/08/2010|
13/08/2010|
07/08/2010|
07/08/2010|
12/07/2010|
12/06/2010|
12/06/2010|
12/06/2010|
24/05/2010|
24/05/2010|
11/05/2010|
10/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
01/04/2010|
01/04/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
20/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House