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12/10/2014 | Bolivia’s election -Happily Evo after

The Economist Staff

A third term for a “non-stick” leader

 

A TRIP on the new cable car that links La Paz, the Bolivian capital, to El Alto, a satellite city perched 400 metres up the cliffs, takes eight scenic minutes. Zig-zagging up the mountains in a bus normally takes 40. The cable car wins plaudits for President Evo Morales. “Evo is actually investing in the country,” says Juan Diaz Crespin Quispe, who sells natural remedies concocted from plants and lizard parts in El Alto’s twice-weekly market. “He’s developing and redistributing, not just lining his own pockets like past governments.”

Such sentiment is common. That, and the smothering of the opposition, will help Mr Morales get a third term in presidential elections on October 12th. Bolivian presidents are technically limited to two consecutive terms, but after pushing through a new charter in 2009, Mr Morales persuaded pliant courts to ignore his first term, which was under the old dispensation.

Bolivians don’t seem worried by such chicanery. Mr Morales is expected to overwhelm his closest competitor, Samuel Doria Medina, a businessman. A September survey by Equipos Mori, a pollster, shows that 58% of Bolivians believe the country is “moving in the right direction” and 75% approve of Mr Morales’s management.

Such consensus is unusual in Bolivia, a land of unstable politics. According to Martin Sivak, a biographer of Mr Morales, 36 of the 83 governments in Bolivia’s independent history lasted a year or less; coup has followed coup. Between 2001 and 2005, five presidents came and went at the residence known as the “Burned Palace”.

Three factors have allowed Mr Morales to break this pattern. First, many Bolivians identify with him. He was brought up by llama farmers and never went to university. Like most voters, he is of indigenous descent. He worked for years as the leader of a coca-growers’ union. His socialist beliefs strike a strong chord.

Second, and more important, Mr Morales’s tenure has coincided with an economic bonanza. If the end of the commodities boom augurs tougher times, Bolivians have yet to feel it. High prices and strong demand for Bolivia’s exports of gas, minerals and soyabeans have helped the economy to maintain an average growth rate of 5% since the president assumed office in 2006. Semi-nationalising the hydrocarbons industry enabled him to channel much of this windfall into state coffers. His spending has been far more disciplined than that of the late Hugo Chávez of Venezuela or Rafael Correa of Ecuador, the leaders to whom he is often compared, but not exactly austere. Public expenditure has risen from 8 billion bolivianos ($1 billion) in 2005 to 21 billion bolivianos in 2013, with much of it going on social programmes and bonuses. Abundance has stoked demand. The Torre Multicine, a new mall in La Paz, swarms with shoppers laden with clothes, perfumes and fast food. In the posh neighbourhood of Calacoto a restaurant set up by Claus Meyer, one of Europe’s better-known chefs, serves modern interpretations of Bolivian classics for prices that would have been unimaginable a few years ago.

Third, Mr Morales has neutered the opposition. The fact that he controls two-thirds of Congress makes it easy to impose policies, and he dominates the media in a way that lessens any risk of unflattering coverage. He has prosecuted several political foes. Two former presidents, Carlos Mesa and Tuto Quiroga, complain that he is harassing them. But these autocratic tendencies do not seem to hurt his image. “He is often called the Teflon president,” says Carlos Hugo Molina, who runs the Centre for Participation and Sustainable Political Development, an NGO.

With a third term seemingly assured, what does Mr Morales plan for the next five years? Some fear a crushing victory may embolden him to go down the road of populist xenophobia, as happened in Venezuela. But to keep the gas dollars flowing, Bolivia needs foreign oil firms to increase their exploration. He will not want to alienate them with further nationalisation, particularly as the commodities boom fades and the biggest export markets, Argentina and Brazil, exploit more of their own resources.

All these pressures will probably keep Mr Morales pragmatic, but few expect him to give up his anti-American, anti-capitalist rhetoric. “He waves with one hand and holds a rock in the other,” says João Neves of Eurasia Group, a consultancy. “Some would say that’s contradictory. Others say it’s a juggling act.” Given Mr Morales’s facility for saying one thing and doing another, some doubt his vow to retire after a third term. He told El Deber, a newspaper, that when he steps down he will open a restaurant and work as a waiter. Many people laughed. “Evo’s only real problem”, says Alfredo Grieco y Bavio, a journalist who specialises in Bolivia, “is his succession.”

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House