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17/05/2014 | Colombia’s presidential election -Ballots and bullets

The Economist Staff

The slow pace of peace talks has complicated Juan Manuel Santos’s campaign

 

AROUND the corner from the imposing stone forts that once protected the Spanish treasure fleet, giant gantries glide to and fro, loading and unloading containers on three ships in obedience to computerised instructions. The ships are on their way again less than 15 hours after they dock. Since being privatised in 1993, when it was a jumble of rusting machinery, the Port of Cartagena has become the fourth-biggest container hub in Latin America, shifting 2.2m containers in 2012. Its operators plan to invest $500m to reach a target of 5m containers a year by 2020. Some of that increase will come from servicing bigger ships that will use the Panama Canal once it is widened. But Cartagena is also the main Colombian port for imports from and exports to the United States, which are set to grow under a free-trade agreement ratified in 2011.

The port exemplifies a new Colombia. The country’s economy is set to grow by 5% this year; it is poised to become Latin America’s third-biggest (overhauling Argentina). Inflation is low. Poverty is falling. An ambitious road-building programme using private investment (see Bello) will add an extra point to growth in the next four years, reckons Mauricio Cárdenas, the finance minister.

To this prospective windfall, he adds another. A peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas, ending an insurgency that has dogged Colombia for half a century, would (he says) add another extra point to growth. First, however, his boss, President Juan Manuel Santos, has to win a second term in an election on May 25th. Mr Santos, a technocrat from a patrician political family, bet his presidency on a peace agreement with the FARC. Formal negotiations on a five-point agenda began in November 2012. Mr Santos said he hoped to conclude an agreement in time to put it to a referendum in tandem with the election.

But the talks have produced accords only on the first two points (land reform and the FARC’s participation in politics). The two sides have been discussing point three, curbing the drug trade, since November. Still to come are the trickiest issues of all, disarming the guerrillas and what punishment, if any, they will face.

The talks, held in Cuba, represent the best chance in a generation to end Colombia’s conflict. But the slow pace of progress has hurt Mr Santos by feeding doubts about whether peace is achievable. San José de los Campanos is a dusty, motorbike-infested barrio on the far side of Cartagena from the cruise-ships and the tourists who throng the colonial walled town. Agripina Perea arrived there in 1999 with her four children after their home in Chocó, on the Pacific coast, was destroyed and their animals stolen by paramilitaries battling the FARC. She has made a life in San José, building a brick house and running a makeshift restaurant. One of 5.7m people officially registered as displaced by the conflict since 1985, she doubts it will end. “I don’t believe in this peace process,” she says. “I don’t think [the FARC] will demobilise.”

Ms Perea’s doubts are widely shared. “Peace is going better in Havana than in Bogotá,” says Antonio Navarro, an opposition senator-elect. Mr Santos has refused to declare a ceasefire until there is an overall agreement (the FARC used past truces to regroup). Nevertheless, the talks are decried as weakness in the face of “terrorism” by Álvaro Uribe, the president’s predecessor, former ally and now bitterest political foe.

Mr Santos leads in most opinion polls, but with barely 30% of the vote in the first round of voting. Mr Uribe’s candidate, Óscar Iván Zuluaga, has around 20%. (One telephone poll this week even put Mr Zuluaga ahead.) He says he would give the FARC a week to call a ceasefire, or scrap the talks: “A democratic state doesn’t sit down to negotiate with narco-terrorists unconditionally.” Best-placed of the other candidates is Enrique Peñalosa, a successful former mayor of Bogotá who is running for the centre-left Green Alliance. He would continue the peace talks. He is trying to tap public disillusion with the establishment by presenting himself as an anti-politician.

Stressed are the peacemakers

“It’s a different country, socially more progressive, with governability,” says Mr Santos of Colombia under his watch. “Foreigners perceive that. If Colombians don’t, it’s because of my enemies.” But there are additional reasons why the president has found it hard to generate a feel-good factor.

Partly because his most capable aides have been tied up with the peace talks, the government has often been clumsy in reacting to events, such as recurring protests by small-scale farmers angry about free-trade agreements. Mr Santos “wants to please everyone and doesn’t take decisions,” says Marcela Prieto of ICP, a liberal think-tank. Many of his reforms—of infrastructure procurement, the management of royalties from oil and mining activities, and an ambitious plan to restore land to those forced off it by gunmen—will take time to bear fruit.

A previously colourless campaign this month descended into scandal. One of Mr Santos’s campaign gurus resigned over claims (which he denied) of receiving $12m to broker the surrender of several drug barons, from which he then allegedly funnelled $2m to pay debts from Mr Santos’s 2010 presidential campaign. Mr Zuluaga has also had to deal with lurid headlines. One of his aides, Andrés Sepulveda, has been charged with espionage for illegally intercepting the phones and e-mails of government and FARC negotiators in an apparent attempt to sabotage the talks. Mr Zuluaga denies that he hired Mr Sepulveda for this purpose—but the affair may yet damage him.

Mr Santos insists that his own polling gives him a comfortable lead. But most analysts expect him to face a run-off on June 15th. If this is against Mr Zuluaga, polls suggest the president would win. In a congressional election in March, Mr Santos’s coalition won a majority of seats (albeit a reduced one). He has the strongest political machine and the support of the main media groups. Barring a sudden change, Mr Santos will get his second term, but on a low turnout and with a weaker mandate. He says he hopes for a final agreement with the FARC by the end of 2014. But a new Colombia is easier to promise than to bring about.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House