Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
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27/12/2006 | Democracy defiled. The coup makes a comeback

The Economist Staff

It has been a busy year for the men in uniform. In February military officers made a botched bid for power in the Philippines. In September Thailand’s military chiefs seized power bloodlessly while Thaksin Shinawatra, the prime minister, was abroad. In December Fiji’s army chief, Frank Bainimarama, took control of his country.

 

In December, too, Bangladesh’s army took to the streets, to curb fighting between rival political groups ahead of January's elections. Constitutional order still seems at risk. The only advance for people-power came in Nepal, where a popular uprising in April overthrew the absolute rule imposed by King Gyanendra in 2005.

The military takeovers in Fiji and Thailand, and the attempted one in the Philippines, were what Samuel Huntington, an American political scientist, would classify as “guardian coups”. In these, a powerful group, usually senior military brass, removes an incumbent government on the pretext of restoring public order or ending corruption or abuses of power.

As Commodore Bainimarama has done, leaders of such coups often quote a “doctrine of necessity”, claiming that the scale of the supposed emergency demanded such drastic action. They also tend to say, as Thailand’s junta has done, that they act only with great reluctance and that elected government will be restored swiftly.

Such promises tend to get broken. Look at Pakistan, where General Pervez Musharraf seized power in 1999, and made all the right noises. Seven years later he continues to run the country and to wear his uniform. Pakistan is no more stable, let alone more democratic, than it was before he took charge. Thailand’s last coup, in 1991, was accompanied by similar promises. But it took bloodshed on the streets to dislodge the military and restore democracy.

The necessity for a coup is rarely, if ever, as great as coup-makers claim. In Fiji it was non-existent. The latest Thai junta said in a long-winded apologia that it had needed to seize power because society was “gravely divided” under Mr Thaksin. The statement showed mainly that military men do not quite get the hang of this democracy thing. It is all about managing differences of opinion, not squashing them.

It was claimed, too, that Mr Thaksin’s supporters were preparing to attack a protest by his opponents. Whatever the facts, the job of the security forces is to police demonstrations and prevent clashes, not use them as an excuse to take over the country.

The Thai generals would you have you believe that theirs was a “good” coup—with no abuses, and with minimum interruption of democracy. But a “good” coup is still a very bad thing. It creates a convenient precedent for the next bunch of plotters, who may not be so well-intentioned. Worse, it stunts the country’s institutions, which can only mature if given the chance to prove they can cope with, and survive, serious conflicts.

Coups disrupt this process of learning-by-muddling-through. Thailand was heading for fairer elections under a new and more credible election commission when the army stepped in. Even in Bangladesh, despite the main political parties’ reckless behaviour, it is too early to say that the situation cannot be resolved democratically. The opposition's recent decision to lift its election boycott should help here.

A military takeover may be the least bad option, only when all possibilities of ending a crisis constitutionally have been exhausted, and if military rule is clearly less risky than leaving the crisis to play itself out. Most Asian coups, and especially those achieved or attempted in 2006, fail the test.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House