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04/12/2012 | Policy choices after the congress - The dust settles

The Economist Staff

China’s new leaders cheer some with hints of reform. The country’s neighbours see less encouraging signals.

 

LESS than a week after the biggest shuffle of China’s leaders in a decade, the prime-minister-in-waiting, Li Keqiang, set tongues wagging with a speech about the country’s economic development. A government news-agency gushed that if his words could be summed up in four syllables, they would be “reform, reform”; if in six, then “reform, reform, reform”. If only reading the tea leaves were that easy.

Mr Li, now a deputy prime minister, has officially to wait until the annual session in March of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), to become prime minister. But the Communist Party has already in effect given him the post. The outgoing prime minister, Wen Jiabao, having stepped down from the ruling Politburo earlier this month, is a lame duck. During a visit to Thailand on November 20th he told a group of overseas Chinese that he hoped people would forget about him. After revelations in the New York Times about colossal wealth amassed by his family during his premiership, Mr Wen has good reason to wish for a low-profile retirement.

The fact that the NPC still has a bit of rubber-stamping to do before China’s leadership transition is complete does not mean that big decisions will remain on hold until then. The party’s new general secretary, Xi Jinping, who will take over from Hu Jintao as state president at the NPC, has been quick to make his mark. Two days after becoming the party’s new leader he lashed out against high-level corruption, pointedly telling his Politburo colleagues that such behaviour had been the cause of “popular anger, social unrest and regime change” elsewhere in recent years. On November 23rd Mr Xi, wearing a dark Mao-suit, used his new role as military chief to lead a ceremony at which the commander of the country’s nuclear arsenal was promoted to the rank of full general.

But it is Mr Li’s reform-tinged speech that has caused the most stir. Labour costs in China, he told a group of officials, would rise in the coming years. Instead of a “demographic dividend” of an abundance of cheap labour, the country would have to rely instead on a “reform dividend” to boost its development. Mr Li said reforms had entered “deep water” and that “entrenched interests” needed to be broken down. Chinese scholars often speak of state-owned monopolies as being the biggest of these. Official reports on Mr Li’s remarks did not say whether he agreed. But he did speak of the need for reform of China’s household-registration system which denies rural migrants the same welfare rights as their city-born counterparts. He also mentioned reform of “land management”, an apparent reference to farmers’ land rights, which are often violated by local officials.

Officials have talked for years of the need for such reforms. Progress has been sluggish at best. But Mr Li’s remarks, and the prominence given to them in Chinese press reports, could be aimed at signalling a new resolve. One commentary on Sohu, a news portal, even compared Mr Li’s speech to Deng Xiaoping’s dramatic relaunch of stalled economic reforms in 1992. It was hardly that: Deng was a far more powerful figure, whose clout allowed him to overwhelm considerable opposition to his policies from party conservatives. Few believe Mr Li could do the same. Nor is it clear how many in the Politburo’s new seven

-member standing committee would support him. Much will depend on the views of Mr Xi, which remain difficult to fathom. The two men are believed to have different factional loyalties.

The new leadership’s commitment to economic reform could become clearer after an annual closed-door meeting in December, known as the Central Economic Work Conference. This sets the economic agenda for the year ahead (an outline of the meeting’s decisions is made public). Mr Hu and Mr Wen will take positions of honour, and Mr Wen will deliver a report. But Mr Li will preside.

Meanwhile, out on the ocean…

The new leadership has been moving far less swiftly, however, in the realm of foreign affairs. Oversight of this has long been one of the Politburo’s weak points: a problem that sometimes results in confused signals in foreign policy. Mr Hu’s chief foreign-policy adviser, Dai Bingguo, is due to step down as state councillor in March. But foreign diplomats are still unclear who will replace him. Neither is it clear whether someone in the Politburo will be given the job of helping Mr Xi co-ordinate the country’s diplomacy. Given the speed of China’s emergence as a global power in recent years, it is remarkable that there has been no foreign-affairs specialist in the Politburo since 2002 (see article). If China’s new leaders plan to be any less assertive in the region than their predecessors, it is not yet evident. On November 25th the first landing of a fighter jet on China’s new (and only) aircraft-carrier, the Liaoning, was reported with great fanfare by the official Chinese media. There is little worry in the region about the Liaoning itself (a refurbished Soviet ship that is likely to be used only for training), but there is concern about the message it appears to convey about China’s naval ambitions.

The jet landing coincided with a chorus of complaints by China’s neighbours over new Chinese passports with outlines printed in them of China’s purported boundaries. These include a swathe of the South China Sea, parts of which are claimed by other countries, as well as the north-eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and the disputed region of Aksai Chin. The passports came into use several months before Mr Xi and Mr Li took over, but only in November did countries in the region begin protesting publicly. China’s foreign ministry has responded by telling them to be “level-headed and rational”.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House