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05/11/2012 | Endgame: Florida - Let's stay together

The Economist Staff

IT TURNS out you really can get tired of an Al Green song. I thought the Reverend was one of those rare singers (Aretha Franklin, Otis Redding, Willie Nelson) to transcend saturation points: an automatic stop to the radio shuffle while driving. But listening repeatedly to "Let's Stay Together" while baking under the midday Florida sun started to feel like a Clockwork Orange-esque experiment in behaviour modification.

 

I expect to never be able to hear that flutey "I'm so in love with you" again without instant flop-sweat. The unofficial crowd estimate I've heard bandied around for today's event—Barack Obama's last in Florida—is 30,000. From the field of McArthur High School in downtown Hollywood, that seems high. But add in the hangers-on, those who tried to get in but could not, and the clatches of hawkers, demonstrators, placard-wavers and assorted forms of media life and the number starts to sound plausible.

Frederica Wilson, Hollywood's congresswoman, took the stage first, resplendent in a truly extraordinary yellow-suit-and-cowboy-hat ensemble. Ms Wilson's speech amounted to an exhortation to get out the vote—a plea echoed by the next speaker, Meghan Hardy, who chairs Organising for America in Florida. They were speaking to a crowd that needed no persuasion. Florida's southern counties are heavily democratic, and for Barack Obama to win Florida he will need a very strong turnout, particularly in Broward County, where he defeated John McCain more than two-to-one four years ago. As we wrote a couple of months back, Florida is a swing state by virtue of having a handful of swing counties. In most of the state, the proverbial cake is baked: Mr Obama is as unlikely to lose South Florida as he is to win up north. There will be some questions about Mr Obama deciding to make his final Florida appearance in the safe south, rather than the hotly contested I-4 corridor, where Mitt Romney will be tomorrow morning. Perhaps he is fighting for a draw in those central counties and a southern torrent overwhelming the north.

Following Ms Wilson was Florida's party-shifting ex-governor, Charlie Crist, widely believed to be preparing to challenge Rick Scott, Florida's unpopular governor, in 2014. Should he win he would be the first governor in Florida's history to serve two terms with two different party affiliations. If he loses, and if this rally is anything to go by, it will not be because of any lack of enthusiasm among Florida's Democratic voters. Like Mr Scott, Mr Crist has a vaguely non-human affect, but in Mr Scott's case it comes off as alien and robotic, whereas Mr Crist has something of the lost, astounded forest creature about him. The crucial question regarding Mr Crist's future is less whether he can beat Mr Scott, but whether Florida's Democratic establishment is ready to embrace a turncoat. Aside from Debbie Wasserman-Schulz, who presumably has no extra-congressional ambitions in 2014, the only Floridian with statewide appeal to precede Mr Obama was Pitbull.

As for Mr Obama, as my colleague noted last week, it finally looks as though he is having fun on the campaign trail. He entered through the crowd, working the guardrail as adroitly as Bill Clinton (okay—almost as adroitly as Bill Clinton). He sounded hoarse, and even from where I sat he looked tired, but he was loose and the level of empathy he projected while discussing the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy was in fact fully Clintonesque. As for the speech itself, if you're reading this blog you've probably heard it before, and even if you haven't heard it before, you've heard it before. That is not a criticism of Mr Obama: at this stage of the campaign there should be no surprises from the candidates, no unforced errors. But making what's old sound new, what's rehearsed sound fresh, what's canned sound spontaneous is not easy. Mr Obama seems to have traded the electricity of the 2008 campaign for a level of comfort and trust among hometown crowds like this one. Will it be enough to win Florida? That's what elections are for. Tomorrow in Orlando I'll see how the other side is faring.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House