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24/10/2008 | Cristina's looking-glass world

The Economist Staff

A plan to nationalise private-pension funds looks like a cunning but short-sighted government effort to stave off another debt default.

 

Across the developed world, solvent governments have temporarily nationalised banks whose survival was in doubt. Argentina, which often resembles the rest of the world seen through a distorted mirror, likes to do things differently. There the private pension system, which has suffered investment losses but is otherwise sound, now faces permanent nationalisation by a government whose own solvency has been called into question. “The G8 countries are protecting their banks, and we’re protecting our workers and retirees,” declared President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, as she announced a bill containing the measure on October 21st.

The immediate effect was to leave them less protected: the Buenos Aires stock-exchange index fell 24% in two days, and investors dumped Argentine bonds, sending their yield soaring to 28%. Many economists and opposition politicians fear that the government’s intention is to raid the pension funds to fill a widening fiscal hole. “A legalised robbery” was how La Nación, a newspaper, dubbed it in an editorial.

The private pension system was set up in 1994 by Carlos Menem, a conservative president. It was part of a wave of reform that saw many countries in Latin America set up private schemes, in which workers pay contributions into individual retirement accounts. This was a response to the lamentable record of the region’s state-run pension systems, whose pensions were often shrivelled by inflation or by government raids on their funds. Mr Menem’s scheme allowed workers to choose between staying with the state system or switching. By 2003 84% of workers with a pension scheme had chosen the new private funds. They have 9.5m accounts and assets of $30 billion. They are the largest investors in Argentina’s depleted capital markets. Their demise would make it far harder for local firms to raise money.

The private system, which now comprises ten funds whose managers include Britain’s HSBC and Spain’s BBVA, has had its problems. Its introduction carried a transitional cost for the government, as the flow of contributions to the state-run scheme fell. This was one of several factors behind Argentina’s financial collapse of 2001, in which the government defaulted on debts of $81 billion. The funds’ returns have been disappointing, partly because they charge hefty commissions but also because the state has required them to hold a lot of government bonds (these amount to 55% of their portfolios). In 2001, in a desperate effort to stave off debt default, Domingo Cavallo, the economy minister, forced them to swap bonds (and cash) for long-dated or low-yielding paper. Last year Néstor Kirchner, Ms Fernández’s husband and predecessor as president, forced the funds to dump some of their foreign investments. He also allowed holders of individual accounts to switch back to the state system at no charge (1.2m did so).

Ideological hostility to the private funds played a part in Ms Fernández’s decision to scrap rather than reform the scheme. Her husband reversed several of Mr Menem’s privatisations. But fiscal need may have been a bigger motive. “It looks like they want to use the workers’ money for non-pension spending,” says Gregorio Badeni, a professor at the University of Buenos Aires. “The reason private pensions were instituted in the first place was to stop the government from doing that.”

Ahead of last year’s presidential election Mr Kirchner stepped up public spending, especially on public-sector wages and pensions. Now the government is strapped for cash. It has relied on taxes on farm exports. But the world price of soyabeans has fallen by 44% in three months, cutting tax revenues by $2.7 billion. And over the next two years $23 billion of public debt falls due.

Argentina has not been able to roll over this debt because investors’ lack of trust in the government has led them to demand astronomical interest rates. The main foreign buyer of Argentine bonds recently has been Venezuela, but Hugo Chávez demands a hefty yield and anyway now has his own fiscal problems (see article). In an attempt to charm foreign investors in September Ms Fernández said she would pay off $7 billion owed to creditor governments, using the Central Bank’s reserves. She has also said that she will “analyse” a plan to pay off those bondholders who refused the tough terms offered by Mr Kirchner in 2005, when he restructured the defaulted debt. But these moves have failed to reduce interest rates on Argentine debt.

By taking over the private pension system, Ms Fernández could solve her cashflow problem for the remaining three years of her term at a swoop. It would put assets worth 10% of GDP at the government’s disposal, and allow it to channel an additional $400m a year of workers’ contributions into public debt. The government could also force the pension system to roll over the 10% of public debt held by the private funds on terms of its own choosing. Of course, all this money belongs to Argentines, not to Ms Fernández. But under the bill, it would be administered by government officials, overseen by a congressional committee. They are likely to give priority to the short-term claims of the public finances at the expense of impoverishing Argentines and their children in the future.

Congress is indeed a possible obstacle to the government’s pension grab. Most opposition parties say they will vote against the bill unless it contains safeguards against malfeasance. The president’s majority is uncertain: earlier this year, lawmakers from her Peronist party helped to veto her plan to raise taxes on farmers. But the private pension funds are unpopular with the public.

If the law is passed, account holders will deluge the courts with lawsuits, as happened when bank deposits were frozen during the 2001 collapse. By proposing the nationalisation, Ms Fernández has further undermined faith in her government’s solvency and in property rights. “Where is the state going to stop now?” asks Miguel Kiguel, a former finance official. “Today they’re taking the pension funds. Who’s next?”

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
01/04/2010|
01/04/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
20/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House