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11/02/2013 | Ecuador- The man with the mighty microphone

The Economist Staff

Having mixed the good, the bad and the ugly during six years in power, Rafael Correa is heading for another term.

 

NEW highways and motorways snake across Ecuador, lined with billboards reminding drivers how bad the Andean country’s potholed road network was until Rafael Correa was first elected as president six years ago. The towns and villages boast new schools and health clinics. The minimum wage has risen well above inflation, and some 2m poorer people (in a population of 14.5m) get monthly cash transfers. Free school uniforms and subsidised mortgages all help to give ordinary Ecuadoreans the sense that “most things are being done right,” says Pili Troya, a civil servant, who plans to vote to give Mr Correa another four-year term in the country’s general election on February 17th.

In his campaign advertisements Mr Correa, a good-looking, smooth-tongued 49-year-old economist, presents himself as the man who turned his country round, after several years of political instability and economic humiliation, which included the collapse of the currency and its replacement by the American dollar in 2000. He rails against the IMF, bankers and privatisations. “Ecuador is no longer for sale,” he cries. “The country of despair has become one of hope”.

It is a seductive message which, according to opinion polls, seems certain to give him a comfortable victory. It is a sign of the irrelevance of Ecuador’s traditional political parties that the president’s closest challenger, Guillermo Lasso, is a banker; then comes Lucio Gutiérrez, a former army officer who, as president from 2003 to 2005, tried to do much the same as Mr Correa but less successfully. An emphatic victory would cement Mr Correa’s claim to inherit the mantle of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s ailing president, as the leader of Latin America’s group of populist nationalist governments.

But Mr Correa’s rule has a darker side that leads his opponents to fear another term will see a slide to a more autocratic regime. The president is intolerant of criticism. He has built a powerful government media empire, including two television networks seized from corrupt bankers. Like Mr Chávez and Argentina’s Cristina Fernández, he has abused a provision, intended for national emergencies, in which all television and radio stations are required to carry his broadcasts—no fewer than 1,365 of them between January 2007 and August 2012, according to Fundamedios, a media body. Freedom of expression is a “function of the state”, he claims. He has pursued criminal libel cases against critics, and is pushing to curb the powers of the media-freedom watchdog of the Organisation of American States.

His use of the presidential veto to rewrite laws has limited the power of the legislature, where his party was in a minority. Changes to voting districts and rules for assigning seats mean that the government should gain an absolute majority in congress in the election, according to Juan Carlos Donoso, of Quito’s San Francisco university. A judicial reform let Mr Correa pack the courts with friendly judges. Of almost 1,000 corruption investigations launched since 2007, only a score have led to convictions, according to a report based on official sources in El Comercio, a Quito newspaper. But voters are more worried about rising crime: a presidential candidate suffered an “express kidnapping”.

Apart from bullying, Mr Correa owes his success to a mixture of luck, opportunism and skill. The biggest stroke of luck was the surge in the price of Ecuador’s oil exports. Mr Correa raised the government’s share of oil and other taxes as well. The result is that government revenues have almost tripled since 2006, with oil accounting for about half of the rise. Opportunistically, Mr Correa scrapped previous fiscal rules that required part of windfall revenues to be saved, and defaulted on $3.2 billion in foreign bonds.

He has lavished all this cash on public spending. The public-sector payroll has risen by a quarter; the cabinet has swollen to 40 members; and the mandarins use 34,500 official cars. But Mr Correa has also shown political skill in ramping up social spending in a country where provision was inadequate and poverty reached 64% in 2000 (it is now 27%). Many Ecuadoreans sense that the oil wealth has at last trickled down to them. And Mr Correa has largely eschewed the expropriations of private companies and the smothering economic controls practised by Mr Chávez.

Mr Correa says that he plans to carry on governing in the same way. But can he? The state has an outstanding debt of at least $3.4 billion with China, to be repaid from oil output. But Ecuador produces less oil than in 2006. Private investment in the industry has fallen. The government has deterred foreign investment with repudiation of guarantees, frequent changes to taxes and hostility to banks. International reserves cover only six weeks of imports.

At the top of Mr Correa’s agenda is a new presidential security force and a new penal code with even tougher provisions against libel. But as long as the good economic times last, most Ecuadoreans will not worry too much about their president’s uglier side.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 1 to 10 of 523 )
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02/03/2014 Por qué perdió Rafael Correa
10/01/2014 Espionaje, hackeos y persecución: La novela de enero en Ecuador
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15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House