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14/09/2013 | Syria’s chemical weapons - Distrust and verify

The Economist Staff

Russia’s plan to disarm Syria’s chemical weapons makes sense only if it is backed by the threat of force

 

NEVER surrender the initiative. In handling Bashar Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Syria, Barack Obama has twice broken this basic rule of diplomacy. First the president submitted his administration’s muddled case for reprisals to a vote in a hostile Congress. Now he has handed the steering-wheel to Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president and no friend of America. Mr Putin is championing a scheme to disarm Syria’s poison gas and nerve agents.

Disarmament might yet work. But the danger is that Mr Assad will be free to duck and feint until what little determination there is to punish him dissipates like sarin in the Damascus breeze. To regain control, Mr Obama and his allies in the West should seek a tight UN resolution instructing Syria to co-operate. If either Mr Assad or Mr Putin cynically obstructs the UN, then America should even now be ready to strike.

The best outcome of all

Russia’s proposal came after John Kerry, Mr Obama’s secretary of state, told a press conference, in a throwaway remark, that the Syrian regime could escape a strike only if it gave up its chemical weapons—not that it ever would. Russia seized on his words and proposed precisely that. Mr Assad, it said, should agree to the eradication of his chemical weapons under Russia and UN supervision. That would stop him launching another nerve-agent attack like the one on August 21st that killed almost 1,500 people. It would prove that the world will not tolerate chemical warfare. And, after months spent talking past each other, the great powers would at last have a chance to work together in the UN to end Syria’s bloodshed.

The plan is seductive because it serves so many interests. Mr Assad would avoid an American strike of possibly devastating severity. He would also gain a rare chance to look reasonable—or, at least, more reasonable than Syria’s al-Qaeda-infested rebels. In a display of statesmanship, Mr Putin could point out that diplomacy can achieve so much more than the West’s knee-jerk calls for regime change. To some, that would redeem his support of Mr Assad during the brutal civil war. Mr Obama would be spared the likely humiliation of defeats over Syria in Congress. He could claim that his brilliant strategy has borne fruit. American voters, relieved not to be going to war yet again, might even believe him.

Unfortunately, though, the chances are that something will go wrong. Even if all sides enter into the agreement in good faith, the practicalities are daunting (see article). Any operation to destroy Syria’s arsenal could take years. While civil war rages, it will be hard to protect UN inspectors and for them to have access to all Syria’s chemical sites. Trust is almost non-existent, so the inspectors will need the freedom to go where they choose when they choose. That will be hard, too.

What if good faith is lacking? Saddam Hussein showed in Iraq how a regime that is minded to be awkward can play cat and mouse with weapons inspectors. The scope for Mr Assad to frustrate disarmament without ever rejecting it outright is almost infinite. Thanks to the past few weeks, he now knows that voters in the West have no stomach for striking Syria. The British prime minister suffered a defeat in parliament. The French president, a hero for dispatching troops to Mali at the start of this year, is apparently a zero for wanting to strike Mr Assad. Mr Obama’s efforts to convince his countrymen of the case for going to war seem so far only to have strengthened their desire to stay at home.

A vague, open-ended plan would therefore be a blueprint for Mr Assad to get away with his crime. So long as he made a few conciliatory gestures and refrained from another chemical attack, he would be able to hang on to at least some of his chemical weapons. He would also be freer than ever to do his worst against his own people, certain that no outside power was about to step in to protect them.

To succeed in his aim of re-establishing deterrence against chemical weapons, Mr Obama needs to regain the initiative. For that he needs a tough UN resolution, backed up by a vote in Congress authorising force if diplomacy fails. Mr Assad has bombed, shot and poisoned his people. Just this week he denied having chemical weapons, even as his foreign minister admitted it. He is not a man to be trusted. That is why the UN resolution needs to be clear that, if Mr Assad does not keep his word, then a military attack will follow.

Russia may reject this. It feels that Britain, France and America wrongly exploited a UN resolution over Libya to remove Muammar Qaddafi. But Russia, too, has seen how unpopular military action would be in the West. If it means what it says, it has nothing to fear. If it doesn’t, and it blocks an enforceable UN resolution, then Mr Obama will be back to square one. But this time he would have proof that diplomacy had failed.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House